{"id":10506,"date":"2015-06-15T01:23:13","date_gmt":"2015-06-14T17:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=10506"},"modified":"2015-06-19T01:27:52","modified_gmt":"2015-06-18T17:27:52","slug":"will-zhou-yongkang-be-xis-last-tiger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/06\/15\/10506\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Zhou Yongkang be Xi\u2019s last \u2018tiger\u2019?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Former security boss handed life sentence at secret trial<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping finally got his man, but not the way he would have chosen. Zhou Yongkang\u00a0is\u00a0the 72-year-old former chief of China\u2019s internal security behemoth.\u00a0Not only was he tried in secret, overturning an earlier official statement that the trial would be \u2018open\u2019, but the trial and guilty verdict were not announced for three weeks.<\/p>\n

Zhou was sentenced to life imprisonment for bribery, abuse of power and leaking state secrets at his\u00a0trial in Tianjin on 22 May, with the news reported first on 11 June. A white-haired and frail looking Zhou, formerly one of the most feared and powerful officials in China\u2019s one-party dictatorship (CCP), was shown in television\u00a0footage making a short admission\u00a0of guilt and saying that he would not appeal.<\/p>\n

These proceedings mark a radical\u00a0departure from the treatment\u00a0of Zhou\u2019s ally, the princeling politician Bo Xilai, whose trial in 2013 was semi-open with a massive media focus. This time the regime chose to play down the affair, despite Zhou being the most senior \u2018tiger\u2019 (i.e. senior official) netted in Xi\u2019s anti-corruption drive. The crackdown on graft\u00a0is in fact an internal power struggle and regime shake-up with much more at stake than curbing rampant official corruption. Measured by its effectiveness\u00a0in limiting\u00a0corruption the campaign has not succeeded and cannot succeed. According to Berlin-based Transparency International, China fell 20 places in the global corruption rankings last year\u00a0\u2013 from 80 to 100 out of 175 countries. An internal CCP report from 2014 found that almost one in three officials were involved in corruption, which if anything is an underestimate. To really tackle corruption\u00a0would require the arrest of millions in other words, something that\u00a0Xi has no intention of doing.<\/p>\n

The almost low-key manner in which the trial of Zhou was handled \u2013\u00a0it was not even the top story on national TV news\u00a0\u2013 has generated a lot of speculation about where Xi Jinping will go from here. Is his drive to weaken the traditionally powerful factions and power blocs within the CCP heirarchy running into greater\u00a0resistance and does this suggest that a slowdown or pause in the \u2018tiger hunt\u2019 is on the cards? Or is it that the alarming deterioration of the economy \u2013 with foreign trade slumping and financial stresses rising in recent months \u2013 is now forcing Xi and his allies to shift focus and seek to repair\u00a0the shaken\u00a0\u2018stability\u2019 within the party-state apparatus? All are feasible\u00a0scenarios.<\/p>\n

Plan B<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Steve Tsang, an expert on Chinese politics from the University of Nottingham, the trial showed that many observers may have overestimated the degree to which Xi is in control: \u201cHe is still powerful, he is still confident \u2013 but not as much as we were all giving him credit for.\u201d Tsang said the secret trial was Xi\u2019s \u201cPlan B\u201d and that he would have much preferred a more public demolition of Zhou Yongkang to\u00a0boost\u00a0his own popularity, and to maximise the\u00a0deterrent effect on\u00a0other potential opponents\u00a0inside the CCP.<\/p>\n

The official reason for this secrecy is that some of the charges against Zhou concerned state secrets. But many commentators had expected the trial to be held in two parts, one semi-open (to handpicked Chinese media only) and the other behind closed doors. The regime seems to have had second thoughts however, especially after\u00a0its experience with Bo Xilai\u2019s trial, which veered badly off script. The former Chongqing party boss,\u00a0who is\u00a0a more popular but less powerful figure than Zhou, retracted his confession in court and conducted a spirited defence. This performance won Bo a lot of support among the general public while of course \u2013 always with such trials in China \u2013 the outcome was a foregone conclusion.<\/p>\n

Based on media reports inside and outside China, Zhou was spectacularly corrupt, but this was not the main reason for his downfall. Zhou together with Bo and several other figures including Ling Jihua, the former aide to China\u2019s ex-president Hu Jintao, and the top general Xu Caihou, who died in March, collectively dubbed \u201cthe new Gang of Four\u201d by Chinese media, attempted to manoeuvre against Xi\u2019s succession in the run up to the CCP\u2019s 18th Congress in 2012. Furthermore, as a former member of the elite Politburo Standing Committee, Zhou represents a very big\u00a0\u2018tiger\u2019 \u2013 and therefore his\u00a0incarceration serves as a\u00a0warning that nobody is beyond the reach of\u00a0Xi\u2019s crackdown.<\/p>\n

This\u00a0anti-corruption drive, which is the most far-reaching in the history of the CCP and has brought down at least 100 officials of vice-ministerial rank or higher, along with more than 400,000 \u2018flies\u2019 (low-ranking officials), has been used to pursue Xi\u2019s opponents and potential opponents inside the party-state machinery and project his own status as China\u2019s new \u2018strong man\u2019. There are parallels with how Vladimir Putin launched a \u2018war against the oligarchs\u2019 more than ten years ago to cement his control and to re-centralise power in the Russian state. Xi is known to be an admirer of Putin.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, it seems that for a combination of reasons Xi has taken a step back, at least for the time being. The case against Zhou Yongkang has taken two years. Many commentators are surprised that he did not suffer a more public \u2018crucifixion\u2019 and that he received a\u00a0relatively lenient life sentence rather than a death sentence or suspended death sentence as was widely tipped. A deal has evidently been struck to obtain Zhou\u2019s admission of guilt, something that is common in high profile corruption cases. The question is at what\u00a0price the regime achieved this?<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, state media accused Zhou of being a \u201ctraitor\u201d and China\u2019s highest judicial organ, the Supreme People\u2019s Court, accused him of engaging in \u201cunauthorised political activity\u201d in cahoots with Bo Xilai. This, and a Politburo statement that for the first time publicly named several internal CCP factions, in connection with this case, signalled a radical departure from the past with Xi and his graft busters \u2018politicising\u2019 the anti-corruption struggle and openly admitting that a factional power struggle exists within the ostensibly \u201cunified\u201d CCP. None of these allegations (factionalism, a conspiracy\u00a0with Bo Xilai against Xi Jinping) appeared on the charge sheet at the Tianjin trial however. The purpose of these public allegations appears to have been to pressurise Zhou into cutting a deal in order to save his own life and perhaps limit the scale of retribution against his family members (many of whom are also in detention).<\/p>\n

As in previous cases, the scale of Zhou\u2019s economic crimes was downsized at the trial. This is done to mislead the public about the true scale of official looting. It shows the degree of official nervousness that the anti-corruption campaign, while pivotal\u00a0to Xi\u2019s plans for a shake-up of the balance of power, also threatens to undermine the regime by publicly exposing the shocking crimes of its leaders. Xinhua has previously reported that Zhou, working with his sidekicks the former oil boss Jiang Jiemen and the former deputy party boss of Sichuan province Li Chuncheng, both also indicted for corruption, enriched his relatives and cronies to the tune of US$345 million. Yet at his\u00a0trial Zhou was convicted of taking bribes of just 731,000 yuan (US$118,000).<\/p>\n

On a lighter note, one of the key witnesses against Zhou was his former confidante and mystic, the billionaire Cao Yongzheng, also known as the \u2018Xinjiang sage\u2019. Cao told the court that Zhou had given him six classified documents, of which five were marked top secret. This cameo role highlights a wider phenomenon \u2013 as corruption has exploded and the gulf between a wealthy elite\u00a0and a still poor majority has widened,\u00a0China\u2019s top officials have increasingly turned\u00a0to soothsayers and mystics for guidance. \u201cUsually the more senior an official is, the more superstitious he will be,\u201d said Hu Xingdou, an economist at Beijing University of Technology. The former head of the railway ministry, Liu Zhijun, who is also serving a life sentence, was known to consult feng shui<\/em> masters about which dates were the most auspicious for\u00a0commencing\u00a0construction work on new rail projects. Cao Yongzheng was arrested last year while trying to escape to Taiwan \u2013 something he evidently failed to foresee!<\/p>\n

\"Zhou<\/a>
Zhou Yongkang sentenced to life in prison.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Pushback?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The circumstances surrounding Zhou\u2019s trial\u00a0raise questions about Xi\u2019s next moves. It may be that the economic crisis and rising tensions at the top are\u00a0forcing Xi to dial down at least on the pace and scale of the purge. The cracks opening up within the ruling elite were highlighted in\u00a0a public statement made last week by the daughter of the late Chen Yun, a CCP\u00a0giant who founded the anti-corruption agency (CCDI) in the 1970s. Chen Weili gave her support to\u00a0Xi\u2019s campaign saying the struggle against corruption was necessary. \u201cThe party rule will end otherwise,\u201d she said according to the South China Morning Post. That Xi feels the need to enlist public backing\u00a0from fellow princelings such as Chen suggests that the campaign is encountering strong headwinds.<\/p>\n

There has been speculation that several high profile former leaders could be the next targets of the purge. These include former Premier Wen Jiabao (whose family wealth makes Zhou Yongkang\u2019s look trifling), former Premier Li Peng (the \u201cButcher of Beijing\u201d) and his offspring, and even ex-president Jiang Zemin, who was the mentor of both Zhou Yongkang and Bo Xilai, and heads the most powerful of CCP factions, the Shanghai Gang. To go after even some of these targets would be tantamount to\u00a0something close to \u2018civil war\u2019 within the ruling elite.\u00a0Only time will tell, but the outcome of the Zhou Yongkang case suggests a cooling off is more likely at least in the short-term. More likely immediate targets of the purge are Ling Jihua, the former aide to Hu Jintao, and retired top general Guo Boxiong. But there are reports that Ling\u00a0has gone mad in prison. Guo, who is not yet formally under investigation although this\u00a0is expected, is said to be gravely ill from cancer. Therefore neither Ling nor Guo may be able to stand trial and their circumstances may increase the pressure upon Xi and his allies to use the wrapping up\u00a0of the case against\u00a0Zhou Yongkang as a timely moment to begin winding down.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou do need some way of striking the balance,\u201d says\u00a0Andrew Wedeman, a US professor whose research focuses on corruption in China. \u201cYou can\u2019t keep indicting more and more tigers without really calling into question the integrity of the party as a whole. There is a need at some point to scale things back,\u201d he told the New York Times (11 June 2015).<\/p>\n

\u2018Endgame\u2019?<\/strong><\/p>\n

For Xi the ultimate aim of this campaign is to break up the \u2018rule by elders\u2019 that plagued his predecessor Hu Jintao and led to creeping paralysis at the centre,\u00a0with factional bosses \u2013 commonly\u00a0with a regional power base \u2013 acting akin to the warlords of the past. Through the anti-corruption campaign as well as an increasingly nationalist tone in foreign policy (as shown in\u00a0the South China Sea conflict and other\u00a0disputes) Xi is trying to cement a more personalised form of dictatorship. In so doing he is abandoning the \u2018collective dictatorship\u2019 model devised by Deng Xiaoping as a way to introduce\u00a0some \u2018checks and balances\u2019 into an authoritarian system. Deng\u2019s aim was to avoid a re-run of the tumultuous final years of Mao Zedong\u2019s rule. Clearly, therefore, Xi\u2019s power grab, while predicated on the need for extreme\u00a0measures to save the regime from collapse or revolution, also entails big risks that could blow back against its author.<\/p>\n

These dangers were highlighted in a widely debated op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (6 March 2015) by the veteran American China watcher David Shambaugh. He reversed his\u00a0earlier more upbeat assessment\u00a0of the Chinese dictatorship\u2019s prospects and declared that Xi Jinping\u2019s \u201cdespotism is severely stressing China\u2019s system and society\u00a0\u2013\u00a0and bringing it closer to a breaking point.\u201d Shambaugh, a former favourite of Beijing, has been roundly\u00a0denounced\u00a0by the Chinese media for\u00a0predicting, \u201cThe endgame of Chinese communist rule has now begun, I believe, and it has progressed further than many think.\u201d<\/p>\n

The CCP regime finds itself in unchartered territory. Pressure is mounting as a result of\u00a0the sharp economic slowdown, increasing regional and global conflicts, and growing unrest at the base of society as shown in an upturn in workers\u2019 strikes and other forms of mass protest. These pressures are\u00a0the origin of the top-level power struggle \u2018with anti-corruption characteristics\u2019 that has raged for the past 2\u00a0to 3\u00a0years. While capitalist commentators offer no solutions other than\u00a0to propose top-down\u00a0\u2018political reform\u2019 which CCP leaders fear would only open the gates to revolution, the scenario sketched out by Shambaugh is far from fanciful. We are witnessing the onset of a severe crisis in China, which only the working class equipped with a socialist and democratic alternative can resolve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Former security boss handed life sentence at secret trial<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":10507,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10506","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nWill Zhou Yongkang be Xi\u2019s last \u2018tiger\u2019? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/06\/15\/10506\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will Zhou Yongkang be Xi\u2019s last \u2018tiger\u2019? 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