{"id":10641,"date":"2015-07-03T14:14:38","date_gmt":"2015-06-27T10:48:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=10641"},"modified":"2015-06-29T00:20:35","modified_gmt":"2015-06-28T16:20:35","slug":"is-chinas-stock-market-bubble-bursting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/07\/03\/10641\/","title":{"rendered":"Is China\u2019s stock market bubble bursting?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Billions wiped off share values in June \u2013 only the Greek stock market is more volatile<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dikang, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

\u201cBefore leaving the world, I wish to say I concede defeat. With capital of 1.7 million yuan and four-times margin, I bet the entirety on China Railway Rolling Stock Corp (CRRC). I have only myself to blame, nobody else.\u201d<\/p>\n

So reads the suicide note left by a 32-year-old stock market speculator from Hunan who jumped to his death in early June after losing his life savings within two days. The man took out a huge loan worth four times his own capital from a \u2018grey market\u2019 lender. Believing the government\u2019s gargantuan \u2018One Belt, One Road\u2019 plan was a sure fire bet, he staked everything on the state-owned railway carriage builder.<\/p>\n

So-called margin debt has exploded in the past year, fuelled by China\u2019s major banks that have all rolled out \u2018products\u2019 to feed this monster. This has been an important factor driving the unprecedented stock market boom of the past 12 months which long ago assumed bubble proportions. Recently, the Chinese regime has become nervous about the extent of margin debt and its potential to cause an even bigger market meltdown. The brokers and loan sharks that\u00a0finance\u00a0margin\u00a0trading\u00a0can call in the loans when borrowers incur losses, forcing them to sell more shares which acts to\u00a0magnify\u00a0a\u00a0selloff\u00a0in the market.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s share prices have\u00a0begun to recoil on\u00a0the\u00a0growing realisation they have hit extreme\u00a0levels and this turnaround\u00a0has been reinforced\u00a0by the\u00a0government\u2019s crackdown on margin trading in recent weeks, which by reducing\u00a0liquidity in the market has punctured the bubble. The collapse in share values since the middle of June \u2013 falling almost 19 percent in two weeks \u2013 was the worst since 1996. Only the\u00a0Greek stock market was more volatile in this period. According to the Wall Street Journal China\u2019s\u00a0market correction \u201chas wiped away US$1.25 trillion in market capitalisation, an amount roughly equal to the size of Mexico\u2019s economy.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bubble waiting to burst<\/strong><\/p>\n

In early June, China\u2019s stock markets hit a 7-year high with the Shanghai Composite Index passing the 5,000-level for the first time since January 2008. This was applauded as the biggest \u2018bull run\u2019 in the history of any stock market with the larger Shanghai stock market rising 150 percent in one year and Shenzhen almost tripling. The combined value of the companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen soared to over US$10 trillion \u2013 second only to Wall Street. \u201cNo other stock market has ever grown this much in dollar terms over a 12-month period,\u201d declared the Washington Post.<\/p>\n

Many commentators, including Socialist magazine, predicted that this was a bubble waiting to burst. The performance of the stock market is completely at odds with the real economy \u2013 of production, foreign trade, investment and consumption \u2013 which continues to slow rapidly. The National Academy of Economic Strategy (NAES), a government think tank, is forecasting second quarter GDP growth of 6.9 percent \u2013 below the government\u2019s 7 percent target. Many independent forecasters believe the real level of growth is lower still.<\/p>\n

\"Chinese<\/a>
Chinese stocks fall 19 percent in June.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Deflation, which means falling prices, is tightening its grip on the Chinese economy according to the data of recent months, and this worsens the outlook for company profits, consumer spending and the debt burden. Despite three interest rate cuts by the central bank, PBoC, in seven months (and a fourth cut as this article was posted) and other measures to ease the pressure upon highly indebted companies, the real cost of lending is rising as a result of deflation. The annual debt servicing costs of China\u2019s non-financial companies is now equivalent to 15 percent of GDP, a gigantic burden. The country\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio, at around 280 percent, is twice as high as Greece.<\/p>\n

This debt burden prompted Beijing to generate a stock market boom to provide an alternative source of funds for over-leveraged companies and to take pressure off the overextended banking system. For more than\u00a0a year, the Chinese regime has engaged in manipulation of the stock market on a massive scale, learning from the experience of other governments. Last year, Japan\u2019s Shinzo Abe channelled more than US$1 trillion from government pension funds into the Tokyo stock market to add fuel to its bull market. In 1998, Hong Kong\u2019s central bank, the HKMA, engaged in large scale stock market manipulation to push up share values which had fallen by 50 percent in the preceding months and threatened to trigger a currency crisis. Beijing has engineered the latest stock market boom by implementing a succession of regulatory changes (such as legalising margin debt in 2012) and a campaign by state-controlled media to \u2018talk up\u2019 the market. The effect of these changes has been to unleash speculation on a staggering scale.<\/p>\n

Desperate policies<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reflecting an increasingly desperate search for policy alternatives to rescue the Chinese economy from a looming debt and banking crisis, Beijing hopes to use a booming stock market to generate the funds to recapitalise debt-laden state-owned companies. The state-owned banks are themselves in need of capital injections and are no longer able to shoulder this burden. In order for this to succeed the stock market must continue to attract new sources of \u2018investment\u2019 especially from the private sector. This is also why Beijing is moving faster to open up its stock and bond markets to foreign capital through an ambitious but \u2018controlled\u2019 liberalisation. A frothy stock market that is open to foreign speculators is\u00a0also seen as a way to increase the use of the yuan and yuan-denominated assets in the global financial system and so help Beijing to secure global reserve currency status, with which to reduce its dependence on the dollar.<\/p>\n

The June crackdown on margin lending reflects a growing fear that frenzied stock market speculation is now impacting the economy in a number of negative ways. One of these is that increased liquidity from successive interest rate cuts has not found its way into new investment or a pickup in housing sales, but has instead further inflated the stock bubble. \u201cMoney has abandoned the real [economy] and entered the fake [financial assets],\u201d reads a recent report from state-owned Haitong Securities.<\/p>\n

Beijing is torn between the twin dangers of an uncontrollable\u00a0bubble on one hand and a market meltdown on the other, which would likely\u00a0spill into the wider economy. Its actions are therefore akin to a driver shifting repeatedly from the gas pedal to the brake.\u00a0\u00a0This explains the central bank\u2019s decision to cut benchmark interest rates again on Saturday 27 June by 0.25 percent, to their lowest ever level, along with a 50 basis points cut in banks\u2019 reserve requirement ratio (RRR), moves obviously aimed at halting a stock market implosion.\u00a0\u201cIf they had not acted, on Monday there would have been real panic in the stock market,\u201d Shen Jianguang\u00a0of\u00a0Mizuho Securities told the Financial Times.<\/p>\n

Shadow banks \u2013 again!<\/strong><\/p>\n

The stock market bubble has also opened a new lucrative field for the shadow banking sector, which Beijing has been struggling to suppress\u00a0as a potential trigger for\u00a0a wider banking collapse. As in the case of the Hunan suicide, shadow banks have moved to fill the demand for high-risk stock market bets, offering margin loans that breach the government\u2019s limit of 100 percent of a borrowers\u2019 capital. In the\u00a0so-called \u2018grey market\u2019 rates of 4-to-1 and even 10-to-1 are being offered for what are extremely short-term speculative bets\u00a0\u2013 an example of the insanity of the capitalist \u2018market\u2019.\u00a0Officially, margin debt accounts for 2.2 trillion yuan, up from 403 billion yuan a year ago. But while even this fivefold growth is a cause for concern, this sum is \u201conly the tip of the iceberg\u201d according to the Financial Times.<\/p>\n

The main source of funds for margin trading\u00a0is from a new generation of Wealth Management Products (WMPs), sold by banks and trust companies as a form of \u2018structured deposit\u2019. This practice is hair-raising even by the standards of Wall Street\u2019s financial witch doctors. China\u2019s debt crisis was fuelled by dubious WMPs linked to infrastructure and other construction projects, often ill-advised and based on inflated land prices, but the new strain of WMPs are based solely on speculative bets on the creation of fictitious wealth. By cracking down on these practises, however, the government sparked\u00a0a\u00a0stock\u00a0market correction that threatens to torpedo its grandiose plans.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s stock market gamble can have deep social repercussions. State media report that 33 million new trading accounts were opened from the start of January to the end of May 2015. Spurred by media hype, millions of ordinary Chinese have jumped into the market. There are numerous cases of homeowners selling their houses to get into stocks and even farmers and migrant workers entering the market. A survey from Mizuho Securities Asia says that three out of ten college students are now playing the stock market. These are the classic signs of a pyramid scheme that eventually exhausts itself and implodes, leaving its newest recruits as the biggest losers. The big corporate players have already banked billions from the stock bubble and can afford to be more cautious. They are also privy to information from government sources that is not available to mere \u2018mortals\u2019.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s stock market mania is a further sign of the economic catastrophe being created by the measures of the billionaire-led one-party regime, which can only be answered by mass struggle and socialist policies to reorganise the economy in the public interest.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Billions wiped off share values in June \u2013 only the Greek stock market is more volatile<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":10642,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10641","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nIs China\u2019s stock market bubble bursting? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/07\/03\/10641\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Is China\u2019s stock market bubble bursting? 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