{"id":10811,"date":"2015-08-10T21:00:14","date_gmt":"2015-08-03T22:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=10811"},"modified":"2015-08-04T17:43:52","modified_gmt":"2015-08-04T09:43:52","slug":"chinas-market-rout-is-a-turning-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/08\/10\/10811\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s market rout is a turning point"},"content":{"rendered":"

Failure to stop stock market plunge has shaken the image of a \u2018strong\u2019 regime<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

\u201cThe big news here isn\u2019t about the Chinese economy; it\u2019s about China\u2019s leaders. Forget everything you\u2019ve heard about their brilliance and foresightedness. Judging by their current flailing, they have no clue what they\u2019re doing.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is the blunt verdict of Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist, on China\u2019s stock market crash and the Chinese regime\u2019s attempts to contain it. A staggering $4 trillion has been wiped off share values since the middle of June, as the stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by 30 percent. This is a sum greater than Germany\u2019s annual output (GDP). It also exceeds the value of China\u2019s foreign exchange reserves ($3.7 trillion), the world\u2019s largest, which are often described as a war chest to meet financial emergencies.<\/p>\n

The crash has acted as a wake-up call for global capitalism, for which China\u2019s economy has served as the main growth engine over the past seven years. As the world\u2019s second largest economy, China accounts for about 16 percent of global GDP, with the US accounting for 19 percent (measured by purchasing power). Given that it consumes around half the world\u2019s minerals \u2013 iron ore, coal, copper and aluminium for example \u2013 commodity exporters from Australia to Brazil are showing symptoms of catching economic flu as China sneezes.<\/p>\n

Faith in government shaken<\/strong><\/p>\n

The attitude of many capitalist commentators was \u2013 as Krugman points out \u2013 that the dictatorship of China\u2019s misnamed \u2018Communist\u2019 party (CCP) were \u2018brilliant\u2019 economic managers who through clever use of state intervention and seemingly unlimited financial resources could always pull a rabbit out of the hat whenever economic problems demanded this. In the past few weeks this faith in the CCP has been shaken to its core. Especially as the stock market continues to disobey \u2018party orders\u2019, the CCP leaders are cast in the role of King Canute, who famously ordered the waves to turn back only to get splashed.<\/p>\n

The regime\u2019s failure, so far, to stop the stock market rout, despite spending $800 billion in the past month according to Reuters, on buying shares and other rescue measures, has also struck like a bomb blast for many people inside China especially the more than 60 million small traders who have been coaxed into the stock market over the past year.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy father has lost 90 percent of his savings,\u201d says Yu, a member of the CWI in China (the sister organisation of the Socialist Party which is banned in China). \u201cHe and his workmates who work in a car components factory decided to buy shares in March this year,\u201d he says. \u201cEveryone in China is discussing the stock market. The government controlled media encouraged ordinary people to invest in shares, predicting the stock market [Shanghai Composite Index: SCI] was heading for 10,000. My father and his workmates have suffered big losses and feel foolish for believing the government.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018State bull market\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

In fact, the SCI surged to 5,200 points on 12 June, up from 2,000 in July 2014 (a rise of 150 percent). But now it\u2019s sunk back to 3,500 points. This was a state manipulated \u2018bull market\u2019 or financial boom, fuelled not just by a frenzied media campaign but also by debt. It was known as the \u2018state bull run\u2019 and even as \u2018Xi Jinping\u2019s bull market\u2019 \u2013 after China\u2019s president.<\/p>\n

In recent years the government gave full rein to practises such as \u2018margin trading\u2019 \u2013 practises that are more tightly controlled in \u2018mature\u2019 stock markets such as New York and London. Margin trading is seen as one of the aggravating factors behind the 1929 Wall Street crash. Officially, 10 percent of all Chinese shares have been bought on credit (\u2018on the margin\u2019), but this is an underestimate because it does not include China\u2019s huge shadow banking sector \u2013 financial companies outside the regulated banking system. Counting unofficial lending, economists believe the true scale of \u2018margin debt\u2019 in China today equals 25 percent of the stock market\u2019s value \u2013 compared to 12 percent in America prior to the 1929 crash.<\/p>\n

Despite many warnings, China\u2019s rulers seem to have been blind to the risks involved in this policy. The financial sector sizzled ahead with growth of 17 percent in the first half of this year. The Financial Times reported that 4,000 new hedge funds were opened in the period from January to May.<\/p>\n

This has been the main ingredient keeping China\u2019s economy growing as manufacturing, construction\u00a0and even the service sector (apart from financial services) have slowed or actually shrunk over the same period. Official claims of 7 percent GDP growth need to be taken with a pinch of salt.<\/p>\n

A turning point came with June\u2019s market crash, reflecting a reassertion of economic realities upon the fantasy world of financial speculation. This is a calamity for the CCP dictatorship, leading to a series of policy zigzags and missteps that even its state media monopoly cannot fully hide. During three weeks of unprecedented measures to \u00a0\u2018stabilise\u2019 the market, in which at one point 97 percent of the stock market\u00a0was suspended from trading, the market rose 16 percent, clawing back some of its losses. But then on 27 July, \u2018Black Monday\u2019, the Shanghai market dropped 8.5 percent, the second worst daily loss on record. Within the following\u00a0week almost all the temporary gains arising\u00a0from the government\u2019s hugely expensive rescue program have been erased. The CSI\u00a0finished down 14 percent in July, its\u00a0worst monthly result for six years. Many are asking what happened to the promised\u00a0\u2018stabilisation\u2019 \u2013 and others are\u00a0asking why such unrealistic promises were made in the first place. This also has political repercussions as the case of Yu\u2019s father illustrates.<\/p>\n

One reason why the government inflated a stock market bubble was to stimulate a \u2018wealth effect\u2019 among the urban middle classes and better-off sections of the working class, to tie these layers into supporting the dictatorship and also to boost consumer spending which is suffering as the economy slows sharply. Another even more important reason was to use a booming stock market to reduce the economy\u2019s reliance on debt, which now threatens to strangle economic growth. However, the slump in share values means that instead of relieving the government\u2019s debt problems, the stock market has added a new debt burden to the equation.<\/p>\n

\"Crash\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Japanese disease<\/strong><\/p>\n

Following a massive economic stimulus programme implemented in November 2008 to offset the effects of the global capitalist crisis, China experienced a series of debt-driven asset \u2018bubbles\u2019 \u2013 in construction, investment, shadow banking and now the stock market \u2013 each of which has begun to burst. Rather than allowing the bursting bubbles to run their course however (as orthodox neo-liberals advocate) the government has unveiled massive financial support measures in an attempt to contain the problem. The latest of these is its \u201cpatriotic fight\u201d to save the stock market. This latest move has divided opinion among international commentators, with some like Krugman predicting fiasco, while others like IMF chief Christine Lagarde have defended Beijing\u2019s actions as no different from the US and other governments adopting massive market rescue measures such as \u2018quantitative easing\u2019.<\/p>\n

But China\u2019s economic fundamentals are catching up on the regime as a gigantic debt mountain now limits its scope for financial stimulus on the same scale as before. In the past seven years, China\u2019s debt has quadrupled to $28 trillion, a rate of increase that is unprecedented for a large economy. China\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio at 282 percent dwarfs the level in Greece, at 160 percent.<\/p>\n

As the economy slows to its weakest growth rate in 25 years, this debt \u2018time bomb\u2019 poses multiple problems for the government. Firstly, debt is still growing twice as fast as the economy \u2013 for every yuan of GDP an additional two yuan of debt is created. Secondly, prices are falling (deflation), which squeezes company profits and makes repaying the debt more difficult. The government has cut interest rates four times in the past 8 months and there are calls for further rate cuts to stabilise the stock market. But despite these measures the real cost of loans has continued to increase \u2013 due to deflation \u2013 and this is aggravating the debt burden on companies and local governments.<\/p>\n

China now finds itself in a similar dilemma to Japan in the early 1990s, when its financial and property bubbles burst and much of its economy was \u2018zombified\u2019 \u2013 meaning that companies and banks would have collapsed without large scale government support. Japan has still not escaped from this stagnation crisis, and China \u2013 a much poorer country in per capita terms \u2013 could now face a similar drawn out crisis.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s Putin<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CCP regime has many reasons to fear these developments. It has kept itself in power through a combination of rapid economic growth and state repression. Arrests, censorship and hi-tech surveillance have all increased markedly since Xi Jinping took office in late 2012, alongside increasing nationalism and the projection of Xi as a \u2018strong man\u2019 on the global stage. Partly modelling himself on Russia\u2019s Vladimir Putin, Xi has moved to concentrate more power in his own hands \u2013 over the military, police and party-state machine, but also over economic policy, which is not usually in the president\u2019s ambit. This has been achieved by waging the most intense elite-level power struggle for decades under the guise of an anti-corruption purge.<\/p>\n

Xi, whose family are worth $376 million \u2013 which is three times the wealth of Britain\u2019s super-rich cabinet \u2013 is a representative of China\u2019s \u2018princelings\u2019. These are the offspring of veteran CCP leaders who over the past two decades have acquired enormous wealth and power over key sectors of the economy. Xi\u2019s strategy is to fortify the CCP\u2019s dictatorial apparatus while implementing more neo-liberal capitalist policies to \u2018normalise\u2019 and entrench the economic power of the princelings. But his shift away from the \u2018collective dictatorship\u2019 model of the past can seriously backfire, with Xi being personally held responsible for every setback \u2013 as the current stock market crisis shows.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s policies are not a question of \u2018style\u2019 but are determined by a deepening crisis within the regime and a growing fear of revolutionary tremors. Strikes by workers \u2013 mostly to demand unpaid wages or compensation when factories close \u2013 have tripled in the past 12 months. Especially in the southern manufacturing heartland of Guangdong, workers\u2019 struggles have become more organised and structured, and this has enabled some industrial battles to last longer or to resume when employers or authorities break their promises.<\/p>\n

The regime\u2019s fears were reinforced by the mass democracy movement in Hong Kong last year, the \u2018Umbrella Revolution\u2019, which at different stages involved 1.2 million people (almost one in six of the city\u2019s population). Similar mass protests engulfed Taiwan, which China claims as its territory, and Macau. Turmoil on the edges of Xi\u2019s realm is a foretaste of what can happen inside China in the next period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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