{"id":10847,"date":"2015-08-11T19:12:57","date_gmt":"2015-08-11T11:12:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=10847"},"modified":"2015-08-11T22:15:22","modified_gmt":"2015-08-11T14:15:22","slug":"chinas-devaluation-currency-war-escalates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/08\/11\/10847\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s devaluation: Currency war escalates"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sudden reversal of Beijing\u2019s previous exchange rate policy underlines seriousness of China\u2019s economic woes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Editorial comment by chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

On Tuesday 11 August the Chinese central bank PBOC (People\u2019s Bank of China) jolted global markets with the\u00a0announcement of\u00a0a devaluation of the yuan\u00a0\u2013\u00a0by the widest margin for 21 years under its controlled exchange rate regime. The decision effectively marks China\u2019s entry into the global currency war,\u00a0a form of economic protectionism involving beggar-thy-neighbour devaluations by governments as they attempt to gain trade advantages at each other\u2019s expense and shake off deflation, or falling prices, which locks economies into a low or zero growth mode.\u00a0\u201cChina\u2019s decision to devalue the renminbi [as the yuan is also known] is a big one, not just in terms of its potential implications but in magnitude,\u201d commented the Financial Times.<\/p>\n

While the PBOC\u2019s initial move, a depreciation of 2 percent, is modest by global norms and is a \u201cone-off\u201d adjustment\u00a0according to its own statement, it represents a major policy zigzag by the Chinese one-party dictatorship. \u201cThis shows how desperate the government is over the state of the economy,\u201d said Fraser Howie, co-author of the book Red Capitalism, dealing with\u00a0China\u2019s banking system. The economy has sunk to its weakest growth in a quarter century\u00a0with official GDP growth of 7 percent, but in reality much lower. As recently as March this year, China\u2019s premier Li Keqiang ruled out currency devaluation in a\u00a0Financial Times interview. Several top officials have said the same thing more recently.\u00a0\u00a0This underlines the sharpness of the regime\u2019s u-turn. During the Asian crisis of the late 1990s, Beijing was praised by US and international capitalism for its decision not to devalue the yuan under heavy pressure. Similarly, even when the global capitalist crisis struck in 2008, while slowing the yuan\u2019s\u00a0rate of appreciation against the dollar, the Chinese regime did not devalue. This places today\u2019s decision in its historical context.<\/p>\n

In recent weeks,\u00a0the dictatorship has been throwing unprecedented financial resources at the\u00a0stock market to try to arrest a two month long implosion in share prices. By some estimates the stock market \u2018rescue\u2019 has cost US$1.6 trillion over\u00a0the past eight weeks. Today\u2019s devaluation suggests the regime may have realised that its attempts to regenerate a stock market boom are doomed to failure and that another type of \u2018medicine\u2019 is needed to prevent recession and the threat of a\u00a0financial meltdown. The\u00a0linkage between recent\u00a0stock market turmoil\u00a0and devaluation\u00a0was also\u00a0made\u00a0by Jamil Anderlini writing in the Financial Times:\u00a0\u201cLast month\u2019s bursting of a year-long equity market bubble and the government\u2019s scramble to prop up stocks further unnerved China\u2019s leaders and appear to have convinced them to break the longstanding taboo of devaluation.\u201d<\/p>\n

The BBC\u2019s economics editors, Robert Peston, said the devaluation, \u201cwill have global ramifications, in the short, medium and long-ish term.\u201d Beijing\u2019s move, by effectively \u201cexporting deflation\u201d will pile pressure upon the US Federal Reserve to think again, as it mulls its first increase in interest rates for a decade, argues Peston. Increased deflationary pressures make it harder for governments to tighten\u00a0credit, through higher lending rates,\u00a0because this\u00a0risks strangling any economic recovery. The New York Times warns that China\u2019s move, \u201ccould raise geopolitical tensions and weigh on growth elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n

Deflation intensifying<\/strong><\/p>\n

China\u2019s economy has slid deeper into deflation this year, with this process likely to be reinforced by the spectacular collapse of its share price bubble in June-July. This has seen almost US$4trillion wiped off the value of Chinese stock markets. Recent data suggests the regime\u2019s desperate attempt to shore up the stock market has re-routed huge amounts of credit that should have gone into the real economy. By signalling what is likely to be the beginning of a \u2018gradual\u2019 devaluation of the yuan, the central bank relieves some of the pressure upon itself because maintaining the yuan\u2019s value against the dollar under the previous policy has required massive and costly intervention.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s producer price inflation \u2013 the price at the factory gate \u2013 has been negative for an unbroken 40 months and fell by an annual rate of 5.4 percent in the most recent data for July. This is severely squeezing company profits and making it harder for China\u2019s heavily indebted companies and local government investment vehicles to pay off their debts. Consumer price inflation was just 1.6 percent in July, but this is largely due to a surge\u00a0in pork prices. If food prices are taken out of the equation then even consumer inflation is now negative (i.e. deflation).<\/p>\n

\"ap-chinas-currency-slides-after-beijing-announces-devaluation\"<\/a>‘<\/p>\n

To complete the gloomy picture, trade data last week showed further deterioration, with July\u2019s exports plunging 8.3 percent on an annual basis. The sharp rise in the yuan against most currencies except the dollar, has taken a big toll on exports to the European Union, China\u2019s main trading partner, and its fourth largest trading partner Japan.\u00a0China\u2019s exports to the EU\u00a0shrank by\u00a02.5 percent in the first seven months of 2015 from a year earlier, while exports to Japan dropped 10.5 percent over the same period.<\/p>\n

Capital flight<\/strong><\/p>\n

The attempt to shift the deflationary burden onto others is the logic of the currency war, which has been raging at varying levels of intensity throughout the crisis period of the last eight years. In this context, China has merely adopted the maxim \u201cif you can\u2019t beat them, join them.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nevertheless this represents a sharp departure for Xi Jinping\u2019s regime which previously aimed, at considerable economic cost, to preserve a \u2018stable\u2019 currency in pursuit of its global ambitions. These ambitions range from internationalising the yuan (getting more financial companies and central banks to use the yuan) which is a strategic goal as the Chinese regime seeks to wield greater economic clout overseas, to the more immediate concern that a depreciating yuan will increase capital flight from China. Tom Orlik, chief Asia economist at Bloomberg Intelligence, estimates that every 1 percentage point drop in the yuan against the dollar triggers about $40 billion in outflows from China. \u201cThe risk is that depreciation triggers capital flight, dealing a blow to the stability of China\u2019s financial system,\u201d Orlik warns.<\/p>\n

Regional\u00a0fallout<\/strong><\/p>\n

The impact of the devaluation announcement\u00a0was immediate with currencies and commodity prices falling around Asia\u00a0on\u00a0increased anxiety over the state of the world\u2019s second largest economy, which is also the largest contributor to global growth rates. Commodities, which are priced in dollars, were hit by the US currency\u2019s rise off the back of the Chinese devaluation. Stock markets also suffered falls worldwide.<\/p>\n

Following China\u2019s move, the Thai baht slid 0.7 percent against the US dollar and the Singapore dollar fell 1.2 percent representing their lowest levels for six and five years, respectively. The Philippine peso also fell to its weakest level in five years, while Indonesia\u2019s rupiah and Malaysia\u2019s ringgit hit their weakest levels against the dollar since the Asian crisis of 1998.<\/p>\n

Asian\u00a0currencies have been amongst the hardest hit this year as massive amounts of speculative capital which poured into the region\u00a0following the Wall Street-led global crisis of 2008, due to record low US interest rates and \u2018quantitative easing\u2019, now head for the exits and into the \u2018security\u2019 of a rising US dollar and widely anticipated increases in US interest rates. The Australian dollar, which is traded as a proxy for China\u2019s currency due to the interdependence of the two economies, also fell on Tuesday. \u201cEvery commodity-based currency is now under pressure as well, because they\u2019ve just lost some revenue on that devaluation,\u201d a forex dealer told the Sydney Morning Herald.<\/p>\n

Race to the bottom<\/strong><\/p>\n

The PBOC claims today\u2019s devaluation is a one-off adjustment and \u201cnot a sign that the yuan will enter a depreciation trend,\u201d as PBOC chief economist Ma Jun assured Caixin magazine. But this stance has, rightly, met with widespread skepticism. The Chinese central bank claims its readjustment makes the exchange rate more \u2018market based\u2019, which is the cleverest way to present the policy shift and shield it against accusations \u2013 from the US Congress for example \u2013 of unfair manipulation. In reality the PBOC knows that by reducing its daily interventions to support the yuan, the currency will come under downward pressure from \u2018market forces\u2019 as confidence in the Chinese economy falters. This suggests that today\u2019s policy change is precisely the start of a \u201cdepreciation trend\u201d which will increase currency pressures\u00a0globally.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s hard to believe this will be a one-off adjustment,\u201d said Stephen Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University and former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia. \u201cIn a weak global economy, it will take a lot more than a 1.9 percent devaluation to jump-start sagging Chinese exports. That raises the distinct possibility of a new and increasingly destabilising skirmish in the ever-widening global currency war. The race to the bottom just became a good deal more treacherous,\u201d Roach told Bloomberg News.<\/p>\n

These shifts underline the serious crisis that engulfs global capitalism. Each national ruling elite pays lip service to \u2018international solutions\u2019 while ruthlessly pursuing national policies that are increasingly protectionist in character. Each \u2018solution\u2019 of the capitalists can at best only postpone an aggrievement\u00a0of the situation, and invariably creates new and more serious problems. This is also the experience in China as the \u2018solutions\u2019 of Xi Jinping\u2019s government \u2013 a variant of neoliberal economics \u2013 have exacerbated\u00a0the economic crisis and created\u00a0a debt explosion. The only real solution is to bury capitalism, by reorganising society on socialist lines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sudden reversal of Beijing\u2019s previous exchange rate policy underlines seriousness of China\u2019s economic woes<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":10848,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148,124],"tags":[4614,4668,2994,4666,4670,915],"class_list":{"0":"post-10847","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international","9":"category-news","10":"tag-china-stock-market-crash-2015","11":"tag-currency-war","12":"tag-deflation","13":"tag-devaluation-of-yuan","14":"tag-trade","15":"tag-xi-jinping"},"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s devaluation: Currency war escalates - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/08\/11\/10847\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s devaluation: Currency war escalates - 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