{"id":10929,"date":"2015-08-26T00:40:37","date_gmt":"2015-08-24T16:51:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=10929"},"modified":"2015-08-26T14:23:13","modified_gmt":"2015-08-26T06:23:13","slug":"china-crisis-triggers-panic-on-global-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/08\/26\/10929\/","title":{"rendered":"China crisis triggers panic on global markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

More than $5 trillion wiped off global stock markets in two weeks since Chinese devaluation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

\u201cBlack Monday\u201d exclaimed China\u2019s official news agency Xinhua as China\u2019s stock market slumped 8.5 percent on 24 August. This triggered the sharpest falls on world\u00a0stock markets since the 2008 financial crisis on growing fears of a China-led global\u00a0recession.<\/p>\n

Previously, Wall Street was the epicentre of global financial turmoil with the US banking meltdown of 2008, but this time it is China\u2019s economic crisis and its leaders\u2019 visible loss of grip that has been the trigger. The shock \u2018mini devaluation\u2019 of the Chinese yuan on 11 August snapped most of the capitalist world out of its false sense of security, believing that Beijing \u201chas a plan\u201d to deal with the country\u2019s accelerating slowdown. Since then over $5 trillion has been erased from the value of global stock markets. This mass destruction of wealth in the space of a few days proves beyond\u00a0any doubt that capitalism is an insane and moribund economic system. \u201cMore than \u20ac400bn has been wiped off the value of Europe\u2019s three hundred largest companies today,\u201d reported Reuters on Black Monday\u00a0as the financial\u00a0rout\u00a0spread to Europe.<\/p>\n

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tweeted, \u201cAs in August 1997, 1998, 2007 and 2008 we could be in the early stage of a very serious situation.\u201d Even US presidential candidate Donald Trump, not the brightest crayon in the box, warned the world could be heading into depression. Damian McBride, who served Britain\u2019s former Prime Minister Gordon Brown as an economic\u00a0advisor, warned that the current\u00a0crisis could prove to be \u201c20 times worse\u201d than in 2008.<\/p>\n

Hong Kong\u2019s Hang Seng Index suffered its sharpest fall since 1987, and its stock market has now officially entered a \u2018bear market\u2019 having shed more than 20 percent since its April peak. Stock markets in Indonesia\u00a0and\u00a0Taiwan are also in \u2018bear\u2019 territory.\u00a0Similarly, stock markets in developed economies suffered huge reverses on Monday compounding the panic of the previous two weeks, with London\u2019s FTSE 100 having lost 18 percent of its value since April, and Germany\u2019s Dax losing 20 percent over the same period. Australia\u2019s stock market plunged 8 percent on Monday, one of the biggest falls, and a reflection of its massive exposure to China.<\/p>\n

The global meltdown\u00a0spread to commodities with oil, copper, aluminium and nickel hitting their lowest levels since the onset of the global crisis in 2008. Oil prices, which play a pivotal role in the global economy, and which have fallen from $115 per barrel in the summer of 2014, slid further to below\u00a0$43 per barrel. This piles the pressure upon\u00a0oil producers from Russia to Venezuela which are already in recession. The Bloomberg Commodity index which monitors prices of 22 raw materials slipped\u00a0to its lowest level this century having fallen 17 percent this year and 40 percent over the past three years.<\/p>\n

China has been the main motor of global growth in recent years, contributing around one-third of global growth compared to 17 percent from the US economy. It consumes around half the world\u2019s metals and dominates the market for other commodities including agricultural goods. The sharp price falls for these commodities has stalled growth in many commodity-exporting countries, but is also heightening deflationary pressures throughout the world economy. While falling prices can provide a short-term boost to economies that import commodities, if this becomes entrenched as prolonged deflation it\u00a0threatens to cripple economic growth and exacerbate debt problems, which are growing everywhere and not least in China itself. This is what happened in Japan, which entered a deflationary crisis in 1990 \u2013 marked by economic stagnation and increasing levels of debt \u2013 from which it\u00a0has never emerged. China today displays many similar features to the Japan of the 1990s\u00a0as does\u00a0the global economy.<\/p>\n

\"CNJNXGAU8AAY9xj\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Devaluation shock<\/strong><\/p>\n

When China devalued the yuan two weeks ago, somhething it has historically been reluctant to do and indeed considered as a \u201cnuclear option\u201d, this shook the global capitalist system. At one stroke this confirmed suspicions that the Chinese economic malaise is much worse than Beijing has admitted or reported in its\u00a0official statistics, which as we have explained are doctored and misleading. The devaluation, minimal to date, also raises the spectre of copycat devaluations (a so-called \u2018currency war\u2019) which in turn could, as Albert Edwards of the bank Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale put it, unleash \u201ca tidal wave of deflation\u201d over the world economy.<\/p>\n

The confused\u00a0way in which China\u2019s devaluation was executed has left capitalist commentators scratching their heads in stunned disbelief. As Paul Krugman noted in the New York Times (14 August): \u201cThey appear to have been taken completely by surprise by the market\u2019s predictable reaction\u2026 Investors began fleeing China, and policy makers abruptly pivoted from promoting currency devaluation to an all-out effort to support the yuan\u2019s value.\u201d<\/p>\n

The depreciation of the currency \u2013 by 3 percent against the dollar so far \u2013 is too small to have any real impact on China\u2019s exports. Furthermore the regime and China\u2019s central bank, PBoC, have had to step up their currency interventions to support the yuan, or risk an even bigger flight of capital from China. An unprecedented $800 billion has left China in the past five quarters \u2013 money being routed into dollar assets and other \u2018safe haven\u2019 currencies by Chinese companies and speculators as well as foreigners.<\/p>\n

This leaves Beijing\u2019s devaluation, which the PBoC seems to have resisted until the last moment, looking like \u2018the worst of all possible worlds\u2019. The decision has created mayhem on global markets and set off a chain reaction of falling currencies but without delivering any real boost to China\u2019s economy. In fact, the sharp falls in Asian and other \u2018emerging market\u2019 currencies of the past two weeks have completely cancelled out and indeed reversed\u00a0any\u00a0benefits to China from\u00a0devaluation in terms of enhancing exports. The Malaysian and Indonesian currencies have fallen to their lowest levels since the 1998 Asian crisis, amid a general downward slide of Asian currencies (with the exception of the Japanese yen which is seen as a \u2018safe haven\u2019 currency). The Russian rouble, South African rand and Turkish lira have struck their lowest ever levels. Another \u2013 and major \u2013 effect of the devaluation will\u00a0therefore\u00a0most probably be to postpone the long expected increase in US interest rates planned for September by Janet Yellen and the Federal Reserve. This complicates the position of the US government\u00a0and adds to the deepening tensions between Washington and Beijing.<\/p>\n

Spectacular missteps<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chinese regime has spectacularly mishandled its stock market meltdown, spending over $1 trillion on support measures during the past ten weeks, from which it has salvaged absolutely nothing. The selloff\u00a0on \u201cBlack Monday\u201d, the worst for eight years, puts share prices below the July 8 level when the government\u2019s rescue operation was launched. Indeed today\u2019s losses wipe out all the gains of the stock market \u2013 the world\u2019s second largest \u2013 since the start of the year.<\/p>\n

These events have marked a turning point in perceptions of the regime. The CWI and its Chinese section have long challenged the myth of \u2018infallibility\u2019 that surrounded the dictatorship and its alleged economic competence. But until very recently the Chinese leaders\u00a0have been held up as \u2018model technocrats\u2019 with leading representatives of global capitalism falling over themselves to pay tribute.<\/p>\n

A succession of botched measures during recent months \u2013 first inflating an unsustainable stock market bubble, then attempting to prop it up after\u00a0it had burst, culminating in a hesitant\u00a0and panicky currency devaluation \u2013 have shredded the authority of Beijing\u2019s economic mandarins. The latest move, although unannounced, is shown by the regime\u2019s failure to intervene with fresh market support measures as the stock index tanked on Black Monday. Beijing has evidently realised it cannot support both the stock market and the currency and chosen to focus on the latter. These measures represent a catalogue of incompetence with few parallels. They also demonstrate the limits of Beijing\u2019s power to control economic developments which the global capitalists have overestimated.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe real casualty over the summer is the government\u2019s credibility. When you look at the stock market intervention, when you look at the FX [devaluation] botch as I would call it a couple of weeks ago, and then you look at the Tianjin blasts, you see a government that is most certainly not in control. You look at this and it sends a very poor picture about China\u2019s competency at the leadership level. Who else is responsible here? [President] Xi Jinping seems invisible.\u201d<\/p>\n

The above comments\u00a0from Fraser Howie, co-author of the book Red Capitalism, is typical of bourgeois analysts\u00a0today. Many of these commentators were fans of China\u2019s leaders until recently\u00a0and are now experiencing what small children experience when they discover Father Christmas doesn\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s stock market crash was entirely predictable, as share prices lost any connection to the real economy. Recent economic data has confirmed the severity of China\u2019s problems. Factory output has contracted for five months in a row and is now at a six year low. Former growth industries like smart phones and cars \u2013 China is the biggest market for both \u2013 are also contracting. Despite a recent \u2018stabilisation\u2019 of house prices, construction starts fell 16.8 percent in the first seven months of this year. In recent years, China has accounted for half of global construction, so on a yearly basis this would translate into an 8 percent fall in construction worldwide. This explains why commodity markets \u2013 from oil to soya beans \u2013 have been hammered in recent weeks. Also, some of the biggest US corporations have seen billions of dollars wiped from their share values because of their dependence on the Chinese market. This includes\u00a0Apple, General Motors, and Yum Brands (KFC and Pizza Hut) who all sell more products in China than in the\u00a0US. Apple \u2013 the world\u2019s most valuable company \u2013 has seen its market capitalisation shrink by 18 percent in the past six months.<\/p>\n

Global crisis of capitalism<\/strong><\/p>\n

Today\u2019s financial turmoil underlines the blindness of capitalism which stumbles from one crisis to another. The CWI and its Chinese section have previously warned that the next phase of the global capitalist crisis could be \u201cMade in China\u201d \u2013 a perspective which is becoming\u00a0increasingly likely. But the problems of the Chinese economy, and its crushing debt burden which is the origin of the desperate policy zigzags of recent months, are rooted in the historical impasse of global capitalism.<\/p>\n

In 2008, as the global crisis threatened a worldwide slide into a 1930s-style depression, the Chinese regime launched a mega-stimulus programme based on unprecedented amounts of credit. This initially yielded\u00a0stunning effects as China\u2019s GDP accelerated and appeared to escape the gravitational pull of the global\u00a0recession. Stephen King, chief economist at bank HSBC, described China as \u201cthe shock absorber for the global economy\u201d \u2013 although today its role is reversed as\u00a0a source of shocks for global capitalism. This is because the stimulus-driven growth of the post-2008 period\u00a0was based on an unsustainable accumulation of debt, which quadrupled from 7 trillion in 2007 to 28 trillion today. This has reduced the regime’s ability to further stimulate its way out of crisis, as we are witnessing today. Prior to 2008, each yuan of credit generated around 0.8 yuan of GDP. But nowadays it only generates 0.2 yuan of GDP.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s problems are mirrored in the growth of global debt which has increased\u00a0by $57 trillion since the end of 2007, to a staggering $199 trillion, according to McKinsey Global Institute. The world economy will enter its next recession in much worse shape than it entered the last one. During the shaky\u00a0economic \u2018recovery\u2019 of the past few years whole sections of the capitalist economy have been dependent on financial \u2018life support\u2019 from governments and central banks, especially through massive \u2018quantitative easing\u2019 (QE) measures from which the economy has not been able to extricate itself. If interest rates remain at today\u2019s historically low levels (near zero, or in some cases actually negative) it means the capitalists will have even fewer weapons at their disposal with which to face a new recession. At the same time, the working class has faced uninterrupted austerity since the onset of the crisis in 2008, suffering sharp falls in living standards in many countries, meaning that a new recession will\u00a0detonate unprecedented political movements and challenges to capitalist rule. It is this fear that is driving the turmoil on global markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

More than $5 trillion wiped off global stock markets in two weeks since Chinese devaluation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":10932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,133,148,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-10929","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-hong-kong","9":"category-international","10":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nChina crisis triggers panic on global markets - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2015\/08\/26\/10929\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China crisis triggers panic on global markets - 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