{"id":11756,"date":"2016-01-31T20:30:21","date_gmt":"2016-01-11T22:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=11756"},"modified":"2016-01-12T17:05:49","modified_gmt":"2016-01-12T09:05:49","slug":"china-fears-spread-across-global-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/01\/31\/11756\/","title":{"rendered":"China fears spread across global markets"},"content":{"rendered":"

Could the financial turmoil of the opening week set the tone for 2016?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Per-\u00c5ke Westerlund, with additional reporting by Vincent Kolo<\/p>\n

Global financial markets started 2016 with a bang! A reprise of last summer\u2019s chaotic falls on China\u2019s stock markets triggered panic selling of shares, commodities and currencies around the world. The first six trading days for China\u2019s Shanghai and Shenzhen markets saw the total value of the market shrink by 15 percent, a loss of US$1 trillion. Worldwide, US$4 trillion was wiped from stock markets as China fears spread. The world\u2019s biggest stock market, New York, fell 6.2 percent in the first week of the year, its worst start ever.<\/p>\n

Does this set the tone for the world economy in 2016? The capitalist George Soros is among those predicting another financial crisis like in 2008.<\/p>\n

China is the world\u2019s second largest economy and biggest trading nation. The sharp slowdown that started two years ago in the Chinese economy has already brought profound crises to several countries that depend on commodity trade with China. This is clear in Brazil, facing its deepest downturn since the 1930s.\u00a0The capitalists\u2019 increasing concern over China is also about its falling currency, the yuan, which could trigger a currency war, and about the huge and growing Chinese debt.<\/p>\n

Last summer, China\u2019s stock market fell a record 45 percent. The Chinese regime, which in the preceding months had celebrated the rising stock market and proclaimed they were in\u00a0control, were seen to be powerless. The actions they took to arrest that fall, including a ban on the sale of many\u00a0shares, has now blown back at\u00a0them. As the time limit\u00a0approached, worried company executives wanted at all costs to offload these shares, which created the wave of selling on the opening\u00a0day of the year. The authorities have now extended the sales ban. If the Chinese stock market falls by a further three percentage points it will pass the lowest point reached last year, in August.<\/p>\n

While stock markets offer only a limited guide to processes in the real economy, and China\u2019s stock market is widely dismissed as a \u2018casino\u2019 (although that could be said of all of them), the fresh outbreak of financial panic is rooted in real problems. The world economy has achieved only the most fragile of \u2018recoveries\u2019 from the deep crisis of 2008, while its imbalances have become more extreme. The Chinese economy, now the epicentre of global instability, is experiencing a much sharper and more complicated downturn than its leaders have publicly acknowledged.<\/p>\n

\"Not<\/a>
Not again!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Currency war?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most immediate risk facing the Chinese economy is escalating capital flight and the fall of its currency, the yuan. As its economy slows, the Chinese economy has paid a crippling price for keeping its currency pegged \u2013 through a succession of different exchange mechanisms \u2013 to the US dollar. This has cancelled out Beijing\u2019s efforts to stimulate growth\u00a0by cutting interest rates and injecting more liquidity into the economy \u2013 cash that is leaving almost as fast as the central bank can pump it in. The authorities are caught in a dilemma: the more the currency falls the faster capital is escaping overseas to\u00a0\u2018safety\u2019. Yet the central bank\u2019s efforts to hold up the value of the yuan have seen it burning through its foreign exchange reserves at an incredible pace.<\/p>\n

The yuan has fallen by 6 percent against the US dollar since last August, including 2 percent so far this year. Many commentators are convinced the yuan will depreciate further because its current level against a rising dollar cannot be sustained. The regime wants to achieve a gradual devaluation but market forces are disrupting this plan. Global financial markets increasingly fear the Chinese regime could be pressured into a bigger devaluation or even lose control over the currency.<\/p>\n

Ironically, this comes after the yuan was promoted to the status of official reserve currency by the International Monetary Fund last\u00a0November, and China\u2019s president Xi Jinping solemnly declared the currency\u2019s value would be kept stable.<\/p>\n

Beijing has spent massively to prevent\u00a0the currency falling too much. December witnessed the largest monthly outflow ever from China\u2019s foreign exchange reserves, double the previous record, and the equivalent of 130-140 billion dollars. Mostly this is due to the central bank\u2019s defence of the currency; the rest is depreciation of non-dollar\u00a0assets held by the central bank. China\u2019s foreign exchange reserves have shrunk from $4 trillion to $3.3 trillion since mid-2014, approaching therefore the minimum\u00a0identified by the IMF \u2013 $2.6 trillion \u2013 which the country needs.<\/p>\n

A falling yuan will inevitably be followed by devaluations in other countries, especially in Asia where most economies rank China as their number one trading partner. Currencies will be written down to avoid losing competitiveness vis-a-vis China. But weaker currencies will also increase the cost of repaying debts.<\/p>\n

Debt mountain<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chinese regime was praised even by economists in the West for having alleviated the world economic crisis of 2008-09 with massive public investments. The cost of these policies is clear today with enormous overcapacity and in particular the rapid accumulation of debt. Official estimates say China\u2019s total debt increased from 160 percent of GDP in 2008 to 250 percent last year.<\/p>\n

A corresponding increase in debt has occurred in most of the \u201cemerging markets\u201d. An important factor is the quantitative easing policies that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, and other central banks \u2013 Japan, Britain, the EU \u2013 implemented. Some of the thousands of billions of dollars that central banks handed out have ended up as debts in South Korea, Indonesia, India, etc. There are estimates that companies, cities, and provinces in China, Brazil, Mexico, and other countries, have through issuing bonds assumed liabilities equal to the national debt in these countries.<\/p>\n

When the Fed in December raised US benchmark interest rates for the first time in nine years, this\u00a0meant global capital flows would\u00a0turn back toward the United States. This has a huge effect on both currencies and debts, which is why the Fed didn\u2019t do it earlier. This time, the small\u00a0US rate increase has already had negative consequences.<\/p>\n

Commodities slump<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Chinese economy\u2019s slower growth has been the main factor behind drastically lower commodity prices. Of the 46 commodities monitored by the World Bank, the price of 42 of them is now at the lowest level since the early 1980s. Oil prices are continuing to fall, even as tensions in the Middle East are rising, and began\u00a0the week at $32 per barrel. Most forecasters are cutting their forecasts for oil prices in 2016, with Morgan Stanley predicting $20 per barrel. Falling oil revenues have pushed many\u00a0oil producing countries into recession,\u00a0stoking\u00a0political unrest from Saudi Arabia to Venezuela.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s current growth rate is judged by an increasing number of economists at around 4 percent rather than the 6.5 percent per year that Xi Jinping says is needed by 2020. Li Wei, chairman of the Chinese government\u2019s influential Development Research Centre, said in a speech at the weekend that he thinks 6.5 percent will be difficult to achieve. An editorial comment by the official Xinhua News Agency warns that 2016 looks like \u201ca very difficult year\u201d involving \u201cunavoidable pain\u201d.<\/p>\n

Xinhua quotes an unnamed authoritative figure who warns that after the downturn, \u201can L-shaped growth period will be more likely\u201d rather than \u201ca V-shaped\u201d, i.e. no real recovery. But still the downturn shows no sign of ending.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s economic\u00a0agenda<\/strong><\/p>\n

China\u2019s debt burden \u2013 particularly in the corporate sector and local governments \u2013 is now consuming almost all new credit in the economy just to keep it rolling over. China\u00a0is therefore becoming a bigger and more unstable version of Japan, in the sense that large parts of the Chinese economy are now \u2018zombified\u2019 and can only produce more debt, rather than offering profitable investment opportunities. This also explains the rush by the moneyed elite to get their capital out. Credit ratings agency Fitch puts capital flight from China since the second quarter of 2014 at the staggering level of $1 trillion.<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping is attempting a neo-liberal economic transition to restore profits and \u2018confidence\u2019, by closing down \u2018zombie\u2019 companies and further cutting the share of GDP that goes to the working class. State media report that 3.5 million jobs will be axed this year in heavy industries.\u00a0At the same time, the\u00a0regime\u00a0talks about creating a consumer-driven economy as its new growth engine, but this is based mainly upon the affluent layers of the\u00a0middle class, not the masses whose salaries cannot sustain \u2018consumerism\u2019.<\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s transition agenda, however, keeps getting stuck because \u2013 of course \u2013 these neo-liberal remedies will aggravate the economic downturn in the short-term, even threatening to tip the economy into a full-blown recession. While the liberal sections of China\u2019s state controlled media are urging the government\u00a0to bite the bullet and embrace economic \u201cpain\u201d, it\u00a0is hesitant and with good reason. Not only could this road lead to massive social unrest, it is also a process the regime could lose control of.<\/p>\n

There are already clear signs of a loss of control, which is another factor\u00a0unnerving global markets. We saw this with last summer\u2019s comedy of errors: a botched devaluation and misfiring\u00a0market rescue policies. Now we see the same thing with the decision to abandon \u2013 after just four days \u2013 the \u2018circuit breakers\u2019 that were supposed to make the stock market less volatile.<\/p>\n

Although it is too early to say whether Soros\u2019s prediction of a financial crisis in the short-term will materialise, the risks have undoubtedly increased during the first weeks of 2016. Politicians and capitalists have no answer to capitalism\u2019s crises and this includes the dictatorship in Beijing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Could the financial turmoil of the opening week set the tone for 2016?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":11757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-11756","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international"},"yoast_head":"\nChina fears spread across global markets - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/01\/31\/11756\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China fears spread across global markets - 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