{"id":11852,"date":"2016-02-06T18:57:34","date_gmt":"2016-02-05T17:25:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=11852"},"modified":"2016-02-06T18:06:42","modified_gmt":"2016-02-06T10:06:42","slug":"crisis-set-to-deepen-in-year-of-the-monkey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/02\/06\/11852\/","title":{"rendered":"China: Crisis set to deepen in Year of the Monkey"},"content":{"rendered":"

As the Year of the Monkey arrives China is facing its worst economic crisis in decades.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Editorial from\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u300bSocialist magazine issue 36 (February-March 2016) \u2013 e-version can be ordered from cwi.china@gmail.com<\/em><\/p>\n

The government\u2019s official data does not give the true picture, maintaining the fiction of GDP growth of 6.9 percent in 2015. Even this represents the weakest growth in 25 years. But several independent agencies put the figure at 3 to 4 percent.\u00a0The economic pain is spread unevenly with industrial strongholds like the northeast suffering what is close to a full-blown recession (i.e. negative GDP), while things are considerably better in the richest first tier and some second tier cities.<\/p>\n

The coal industry has shed 890,000 jobs in the past two years, according to Ernan Cui, a Beijing-based analyst at researcher Gavekal Dragonomics. This is almost 15 percent of the total workforce in coal mining. In the same period, 550,000 workers were laid off in the steel industry. In January, the State Council took a decision to close a further 4,600 coal mines. While there is an urgent need to shift towards clean energy, these policies do nothing to protect workers by guaranteeing employment and creating new jobs in green industries. A socialist plan \u2013 rather than market chaos \u2013 is needed to solve these contradictions.<\/p>\n

\"New<\/a>
New issue of Socialist magazine.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Deindustrialisation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Manufacturing industry is also in the doldrums. Employment in the sector has declined every month for over two years. Dongguan, the huge factory city in Guangdong province, sums up the increasingly desperate straits facing migrant workers who make up the manufacturing labour force. In a speech at the end of January, Dongguan Mayor Yuan Baocheng said 500 foreign companies had pulled out of the city in 2015. The total number of factory closures in Dongguan in the past year was more than 4,000 according to The Beijing News. This was mostly in the electronics industry.<\/p>\n

This deindustrialisation, with a corresponding effect of shops and restaurants closing down, has resulted in millions leaving the city. According to data from cellphone providers the number of users in Dongguan fell to 8 million last year from 12 million in 2007.<\/p>\n

Wave of strikes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Workers are being forced to stage protests and strikes, despite the more serious penalties \u2013 beatings, dismissal, imprisonment \u2013 as the authorities become more and more repressive. This is not only in manufacturing industry, which in December saw the highest monthly strike figure (400 incidents) yet recorded.<\/p>\n

Recent months have also seen a wave of strikes by nurses and hospital staff, especially on the issue of unequal short-term contracts. In January, nurses in Chongqing and Huaibei, Anhui province, went on strike to demand pay rises and equal employment status.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople\u2019s Republic of Debt\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even Xinhua warns 2016 \u201ccould be a very difficult year\u201d. The explosive start to the year on Chinese and global stock markets leaves no doubt on that score. China\u2019s stock markets have fallen by a further 22 percent in the first weeks of 2016, after falling 43 percent last summer. Global stock markets have also tumbled, showing it is not a purely Chinese phenomenon. Collapsing oil and commodity prices, fears over China\u2019s economy, currency turmoil, and the rise in global debt \u2013 these are the factors feeding the financial turbulence. These are all legacies of the global capitalist crisis that began in 2008 and has not relaxed its grip.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s growing debt load is one of the factors causing serious concern for global capitalism. This was a hot talking point at the Davos World Economic Forum in January, a meeting of the global elite.\u00a0Even as China\u2019s economy slows sharply, the debt is still growing fast \u2013 three times faster than GDP! China\u2019s total debt stood at 282 percent of GDP in 2014 and may have risen to 346 percent of GDP in 2015. This is according to research from Michael Every, head of financial markets research Asia Pacific at Rabobank. In 2007, China\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio was 158 percent (McKinsey Global Institute). Some economists now describe China as \u201cthe People\u2019s Republic of Debt\u201d.<\/p>\n

This could push the financial system to breaking point, forcing the government to stage a costly rescue. The cost of a bailout could be truly gigantic, diverting resources that could otherwise be used for investment and to soften the economic pain for workers and the middle classes.<\/p>\n

The government wants to avoid a financial crash by staging \u2018hidden bailouts\u2019 with the banks making new loans so that indebted companies can repay old loans. But this is reducing the efficiency of credit \u2013 the economy needs more and more credit to achieve the same, or lower, rates of growth. And this is the reason why China\u2019s debt load keeps growing.<\/p>\n

Shock and awe<\/strong><\/p>\n

For the Chinese regime the coming year can be the most tumultuous in decades. Increasing repression including the more frequent use of arrests, disappearances, kidnappings and forced \u2018confessions\u2019, as well as more serious political charges \u2013 such as \u2018subversion\u2019 which can lead to imprisonment for life \u2013 these are all symptoms of a regime preparing for social and political emergencies.<\/p>\n

In the short-term this display of \u201cshock and awe\u201d may succeed in deterring the working class from engaging in struggle. The belief that economic distress is only \u2018temporary\u2019 may also play a part. But as the economic problems mount \u2013 and we socialists believe this is now inevitable \u2013 a mighty wave of mass struggle looms ahead.<\/p>\n

\"Teachers<\/a>
Teachers on strike in Harbin, January 2015.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As the Year of the Monkey arrives China is facing its worst economic crisis in decades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":11853,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-11852","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nChina: Crisis set to deepen in Year of the Monkey - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/02\/06\/11852\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China: Crisis set to deepen in Year of the Monkey - 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