{"id":12975,"date":"2016-07-04T01:59:36","date_gmt":"2016-07-03T19:27:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=12975"},"modified":"2016-07-05T03:02:04","modified_gmt":"2016-07-04T19:02:04","slug":"chinas-economy-dead-panda-bounce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/07\/04\/12975\/","title":{"rendered":"China\u2019s economy: \u2018Dead panda bounce\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"

Has China\u2019s economy turned a corner? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Analysis by chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

Has China\u2019s economy turned a corner?\u00a0<\/strong>Premier Li Keqiang and the Chinese government certainly want us to believe that. The reality however is continuing weak growth despite a series of major stimulus measures that revive memories of Beijing\u2019s mega-stimulus package in the wake of the 2008 global capitalist crisis. The build-up of debt, which is the inevitable result of these policies, is increasing the risk of a financial collapse or\u00a0as\u00a0a \u2018best case\u2019 scenario Japanese-style economic stagnation. This is something that even senior Chinese officials are now openly warning about.<\/p>\n

In an unprecedented sign of splits at the top, the People\u2019s Daily published a front-page editorial (9 May 2016), in which an unnamed \u2018authoritative source\u2019 savaged the government\u2019s policies. Rather than an economy in recovery mode, the source said, the trajectory was L-shaped.\u00a0\u201cI need to stress, that the L-shape will last for a certain period of time, and it\u2019s certainly longer than one or two years,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n

The mystery source is clearly a regime heavyweight or his comments would not have been featured so prominently in the CCP\u2019s (so-called Communist Party) main mouthpiece. It is widely believed to be Liu He, Xi Jinping\u2019s top economic guru who heads the general office of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Reform. Stimulating growth by increasing debt was like \u201cgrowing a tree in the air\u201d, he said, warning that this could \u201ctrigger a systemic financial crisis\u201d.<\/p>\n

The People\u2019s Daily editorial punctured a bubble of positive economic spin from the government, an attempt to shake off its\u00a0crisis image.\u00a0Beijing-based economist Anne Stevenson-Yang says the economy has experienced a \u201cdead panda bounce\u201d rather than a real recovery. \u201cBehind what looks like recovery in the Chinese economy are massive new injections of liquidity and unrelenting jawboning from the top about the strength of the economy,\u201d she commented.<\/p>\n

Fed u-turn<\/strong><\/p>\n

China\u2019s stock markets and currency nosedived at the start of the year, the second big wave of financial turmoil since the spectacular stock market implosion of last summer. But by late February both China\u2019s and global financial markets had steadied. This was above all due to the US Federal Reserve Bank\u2019s change of stance; putting further interest rate rises on hold, after its mistimed increase in benchmark lending rates last December.<\/p>\n

That was the first rise in US rates in nine years. By appearing to signal the end of the Fed\u2019s historically unprecedented cheap credit policies (quantitative easing) it triggered a flood of speculative capital back into the US as the dollar climbed against other currencies. Capital was sucked out of the so-called emerging markets of which the biggest by far is China, popping bubbles in property markets, stocks and other financial assets. This new flare-up of the \u2018emerging markets crisis\u2019 threatened to kill off the faltering global recovery.<\/p>\n

By deferring further rate hikes the Fed temporarily steadied the ship and gave China\u2019s embattled financial authorities a breathing space. As the dollar reversed course and began to weaken against other currencies this relieved pressure on China\u2019s central bank, which until this point was spending heavily to shore up the yuan in an effort to staunch massive capital flight. Bloomberg estimates that China suffered a net outflow of US$1 trillion last year \u2013 almost 10 percent of GDP. This represents a historic reversal after years of net inflows. At the time of writing, however, the dollar is again rising \u2013 sharply in the wake of \u2018Brexit\u2019 \u2013 increasing the pressure once more on China\u2019s central bank.<\/p>\n

The cost to the Chinese state has been astronomical with its foreign exchange reserves cut to US$3.19 trillion this May from a peak of US$4 trillion two years earlier. To stem this \u2018cash drain\u2019 Beijing moved to tighten its leaky capital controls. But this is seen only as a temporary expedient because a return to strict capital controls would thwart the global ambitions of China\u2019s biggest companies, which are engaged in furious outward expansion.<\/p>\n

Heading for a debt crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

The stampede of capital out of China has the potential to trigger a banking crisis or \u2013 more immediately \u2013 to force Beijing into a drastic devaluation of the yuan. This would almost certainly spark a wave of copycat devaluations (a so-called \u2018currency war\u2019) especially in Asia and other emerging markets. Many commentators have therefore drawn parallels with the 1997 Asian Crisis, also triggered by massive capital flight which upended the region\u2019s currencies and triggered severe recessions from Seoul to Jakarta.<\/p>\n

It is true that a state-owned banking system gives China greater defences against such a scenario, but only up to a point. The state-owned sector in China is actually a collection of competing geographic and economic entities which pull in different directions. What is significant about the Chinese regime\u2019s crisis response so far is that is consists only of adding more debt in the hope of muddling through. This is a policy that on one hand becomes progressively less effective (more and more debt is needed to create ever weaker bursts of growth) and on the other hand stores up bigger problems for the future.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s officially stated aim, reiterated at the March NPC meeting, is to achieve average annual growth of 6.5 percent from now until the year 2021. \u201cThis probably requires that by 2021 total debt will rise to a level equal to between 360 percent and 540 percent of China\u2019s GDP,\u201d says Beijing-based economist Michael Pettis. \u201cThis, to put it mildly, is implausible.\u201d [FT Alphaville<\/em>, 2 June 2016]<\/p>\n

George Soros, the billionaire speculator, warned recently that China\u2019s dependence on debt bears an \u201ceerie resemblance\u201d to the conditions leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. The explosive growth of shadow banking in particular betrays many similarities with the US. This is an area of the economy where\u00a0\u2013\u00a0by definition\u00a0\u2013\u00a0state control doesn\u2019t exist.<\/p>\n

Economist Charlene Chu, an expert on China\u2019s banks, believes an \u201caggressive bailout\u201d of the banking system will soon be needed. She estimates the real extent of bad loans \u2013 officially just 1.75 percent \u2013 is around 22 percent of total banking assets. This is not far from the estimates of Hong Kong-based brokerage CLSA, published in a May report, which puts non-performing loans (NPLs) at the \u201ccrisis level\u201d of 19 percent. With total assets (i.e. loans) worth US$28 trillion, this means a staggering US$5 to 6 trillion in NPLs.<\/p>\n

As China\u2019s economy has slowed to it\u2019s weakest growth in 25 years, probably substantially below the 6.9 percent Beijing claimed last year, the debt mountain has continued to grow. A report by Goldman Sachs (2 July 2016) says China\u2019s debt-to-GDP level rose from 154 to 249 percent between 2008 and 2015 \u2013 a result that \u201cranks in the 98th percentile of debt buildups in modern history.\u201d According to this report only countries that have been at war have experienced anything close.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy own guess is that Beijing has two to three years \u2013 perhaps four if global conditions turn very positive \u2013 but not more than that before debt levels become so high that growth grinds to a halt,\u201d says Pettis.<\/p>\n

\"Red<\/p>\n

Shadow banking: an $8 trillion industry<\/strong><\/p>\n

The bad numbers don\u2019t stop there. In the first year of his Premiership, Li Keqiang\u2019s policies seemed to have a certain effect in slowing the growth of shadow banking, which involves far greater financial risks because it is outside government regulation and spreads its financial tentacles in ways that even insiders don\u2019t understand.<\/p>\n

But China\u2019s shadow banking sector has resumed its explosive growth. This is partly in response to Beijing\u2019s cuts in interest rates, but is also due to capital migrating\u00a0from the\u00a0lacklustre stock market. Shadow finance is especially popular with regional and local governments, and the state-owned banks which in reality are dictating the growth of shadow banking, using this as a \u201chidden second balance sheet\u201d, to quote the economist Chu, to conceal the full extent of their assets and liabilities. If the current unsustainable growth of credit in China represents a form of financial \u2018steroids\u2019 then the shadow banking sector and its Ponzi scheme \u2018investment products\u2019 represents the most dangerous form of \u2018steroids\u2019 that can cause death. In China\u2019s case, there is the additional danger that the shadow banking system can\u00a0serve as a bolthole for capital flight in a future crisis.<\/p>\n

According to Moody\u2019s, China\u2019s shadow banking sector grew 30 percent in 2015, to US$8 trillion (around 80 percent of GDP). Furthermore, the fastest growth sector has been\u00a0for Wealth Management Products (WMPs) which are sold as \u2018investments\u2019 but are mostly just bundles of \u2018junk\u2019 debt repackaged and sold with promises of a higher-than-average payout. Incredibly, HSBC reported (30 June 2016) that the WMP market is now 24 percent larger than China\u2019s domestic stock market (the world\u2019s second largest). Fundamentally, China\u2019s WMPs are no different from the Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs) that proliferated in the run up to the US financial meltdown of 2008.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s version of\u00a0CDOs<\/strong><\/p>\n

Increasingly it is banks \u2013 seeking higher profits \u2013 that buy them (accounting for one-third of WMP purchases last year). An increasing share of WMPs are also\u00a0being bought up by other WMPs, meaning the same underlying \u2018assets\u2019 are being re-packaged and sold multiple times \u2013 replicating exactly the practises that blew up the US banking system. To quote one of the bankers in the movie The Big Short, this is the financial equivalent of \u201cdog shit wrapped in cat shit\u201d.<\/p>\n

Charlene Chu calls WMPs \u201ca ticking time bomb\u201d. She points out that if WMPs grow just 25-30 percent this year (last year they grew 57 percent), \u201cthey will be twice as big as the combined amount of structured investment vehicles and conduits that blew up on Western banks during the global financial crisis.\u201d [Barron\u2019s<\/em> 15 April 2016].<\/p>\n

At the same time, much of the corporate debt accumulated from the giant stimulus package of 2008 is turning bad. As we have seen, very few economists believe the official figures for non-performing loans (NPLs), i.e. loans that are in default or close to default, currently given as 1.75 percent of total loans. Several recent reports indicate the real level is 10 to 20 times higher.<\/p>\n

Reporting from Xi Jinping\u2019s former power base, Zhejiang province, where the official NPL ratio stands at 2.39 percent, the Financial Times (30 May 2016) found that \u201clocal bankers estimated that the province\u2019s real NPL ratio is likely in the region of 20-30 per cent.\u201d<\/p>\n

Credit surge in Q1<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s attempts to deleverage (reduce debt levels) have failed or been overridden by contradictory policies and the evasive practises of banks and local governments. Above all this flows from the fear that a sharp drop in growth could unleash an uncontrollable financial and political chain reaction (a banking crisis and mass unrest).<\/p>\n

This explains why the creation of new loans surged in the first quarter of this year, hitting a new record. Total social financing (TSF), a broad measure of new credit, soared 41 percent from the same quarter a year earlier to 6.59 trillion yuan (US$1 trillion).<\/p>\n

The credit expansion of the first quarter exceeded even the first quarter of 2009, the start of China\u2019s giant stimulus package. This seems to have been a panic response by the government to the sharp deterioration in the economy at the start of the year. This also explains the sharp and unusually public top-level split over economic policy.<\/p>\n

The result of this latest credit splurge has been to blow up new bubbles especially in the property market (limited to first and second-tier cities), and even a delusional commodities boom. These bubbles will inevitably burst much like last year\u2019s stocks bubble.<\/p>\n

These developments also underline the fact that the central government and its financial agencies are not in full control of economic policy. China\u2019s economy is in practise heavily decentralised with local governments and the companies and banks under their control pursuing their own agendas regardless of Beijing\u2019s wishes. This is a big factor behind the explosion of debt and the ineffectiveness of government attempts to deleverage.<\/p>\n

\"china-shadow-banking\"<\/p>\n

Banks: \u2018extend and pretend\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

State-owned banks operate a policy of \u2018extend and pretend\u2019 \u2013 covering up the mountain of bad loans and granting new loans to major clients and local government-backed companies to keep them afloat.\u00a0Meanwhile the economic slowdown continues. Recent data shows manufacturing industry is still contracting, with employment falling every month for the past two years, and the growth of private sector investment (which drives 65 percent of the economy) has fallen sharply to 3.9 percent in the first five months of this year, compared to 10 percent growth in 2015.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no chance that China has bottomed out. The idea that China has bottomed out should be stricken from the lexicon, because China is on a long-term slowdown. The question is whether they can engineer this the way they want or whether the circumstances are dictated to them,\u201d says Leland Miller who produces the China Beige Book, a survey of private sector companies in\u2008China.<\/p>\n

Most of the global banks are trimming their predictions for China\u2019s GDP growth this year \u2013 within a range of 6.2 to 6.6 percent. Whatever the official GDP statistics say about the second quarter, it\u2019s clear the downward pressure continues despite the unprecedented credit expansion at the start of the year. Of course, the regime can make up whatever statistics they want and as a fearsome dictatorship no one will openly accuse them of falsification.<\/p>\n

The author Fraser Howie, who co-wrote the best seller \u2018Red Capitalism\u2019, recounted what the boss of a large European insurer told him after attending a meeting with officials from the People\u2019s Bank of China (central bank) earlier this year. He said the Chinese officials were joking and laughing in derision about official reports showing 6 percent growth.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately for China\u2019s working class, facing mass layoffs, wage cuts and economic uncertainty, this is no laughing matter.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Has China\u2019s economy turned a corner?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":12976,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-12975","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nChina\u2019s economy: \u2018Dead panda bounce\u2019 - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2016\/07\/04\/12975\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China\u2019s economy: \u2018Dead panda bounce\u2019 - 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