{"id":14009,"date":"2017-01-26T03:03:00","date_gmt":"2017-01-25T19:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=14009"},"modified":"2017-01-21T02:39:29","modified_gmt":"2017-01-20T18:39:29","slug":"trump-and-china-heading-for-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2017\/01\/26\/14009\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump and China: Heading for conflict?"},"content":{"rendered":"

New US president\u2019s anti-China outbursts are raising fears of\u00a0confrontation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

The coming to power of President Trump marks a major turning point in international relations. Trump in power means the US ruling class have lost control, at least partially, over their political system and government. There is enormous uncertainty, and not least among governments in the Asia-Pacific region, over whether the Washington establishment can control the 45th president \u2013 will his late night Twitter rants become policy or not?<\/p>\n

Many things Trump said on the campaign trail have already been unceremoniously discarded such as his demagogic attacks on Wall Street \u2013 a key factor that helped him win the election. He has appointed more billionaires to his cabinet than any previous US president, boasting a combined net worth of $14 billion. No fewer than four of his team, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, hail from the \u2018great vampire squid\u2019 itself \u2013 investment bank Goldman Sachs. But while Wall Street has been sated by Trump\u2019s promises of tax cuts and fat infrastructure contracts, his foreign policy and threats of an aggressive \u2018America First\u2019 trade agenda look set to heighten tensions globally.<\/p>\n

Anti-China profile<\/strong><\/p>\n

Since the\u00a0November election the CCP dictatorship\u00a0(China\u2019s so-called Communist Party) has become increasingly\u00a0nervous about the \u2018three Ts\u2019 \u2013 Trump, Trade and Taiwan. The composition of Trump\u2019s cabinet, if approved, and many of his senior advisors, have a distinct anti-China profile. This is especially true of the administration\u2019s trade team which includes Wilbur Ross, Peter Navarro and Robert Lightizer. Navarro is an extreme anti-China hawk most famous for his book and film, \u2018Death by China\u2019.<\/p>\n

Taken together with Trump\u2019s recent statements on Taiwan and the \u2018One China\u2019 policy (a diplomatic formula which rules out recognition of a separate Taiwan state and commits the US and other parties to officially recognise only the Beijing regime), with Trump intimating the US may pull back from this agreement, or seek to renegotiate it, this has placed China\u2019s rulers on a state of red alert. While publicly playing down Trump\u2019s utterances \u2013 \u201che is not president yet\u201d \u2013 the Chinese regime has been busy\u00a0reviewing its options diplomatically, economically, and even militarily in terms of its deployments in the South China Sea and vis-\u00e0-vis Taiwan, to take account of various Trump scenarios.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s anxieties were ratcheted up further when Rex Tillerson, Trump\u2019s choice to become Secretary of State, likened China\u2019s man-made \u2013 and unpopulated\u00a0\u2013 islands in the South China Sea to \u201cRussia\u2019s taking of Crimea,\u201d and warned China\u2019s \u201caccess to those islands is also not going to be allowed.\u201d Tillerson did not elaborate how such a policy could be implemented (even for the US navy this would require gigantic resources, effectively a naval cordon of the entire South China Sea), but his comments immediately drew a riposte from the Global Times, a CCP mouthpiece, that this would trigger a \u201ca large-scale war\u201d.<\/p>\n

\n
\u201cAny news about Trump must be handled carefully; unauthorised criticism of Trump\u2019s words or actions is not allowed\u201d \u2013 censorship instructions\u00a0to Chinese media.<\/em><\/h6>\n<\/blockquote>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Global Times is a notoriously rabid nationalist tabloid, which is given a certain license by the Chinese regime to let off steam. At the same time, the regime has signalled it will take a very hardline against any\u00a0nationalist street protests in China in the next period, without naming any particular country, but clearly readying itself for possible anti-US demonstrations. It desperately wants to keep control even in the face of provocations from Trump\u2019s administration, fearing these could be seized upon, as were the protests against\u00a0Japan in 2012, by sections of the CCP-state that could use\u00a0this\u00a0as part of the power struggle inside the regime.<\/p>\n

Censorship instructions, which have been leaked, reveal that Beijing\u2019s\u00a0propaganda department\u00a0on 13 January issued the following orders:\u00a0\u201cAny news about Trump must be handled carefully; unauthorised criticism of Trump\u2019s words or actions is not allowed.\u201d This shows the extreme nervousness of\u00a0the regime. In the run up to a tense leadership reshuffle later this year, at the 19th CCP Congress, with Xi Jinping looking to cement his control over the reins of power, he does not want to gift his factional opponents with an opportunity to outflank him on the issue of nationalism and defending China\u2019s interests.<\/p>\n

Other commentators are also warning of a US-China military conflict based on Trump\u2019s confrontational tone, as did Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times (Pacific conflict looms between America and China<\/em>, 16 January 2017).<\/p>\n

\"\"
Trump\u2019s top trade advisor Peter Navarro wrote the book, Death by China.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

De-globalisation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Capitalist governments and commentators internationally share this sense of alarm both over the implications of a serious chill in US-China relations, which were already increasingly strained under the Obama administration, and the danger of a trade war that could have a devastating impact on an already weak global economy. For this reason, Xi Jinping took the biggest-ever Chinese delegation to the yearly billionaires\u2019 conclave (World Economic Forum) in Davos, Switzerland, and was given top billing with his speech defending\u00a0\u2018economic globalisation\u2019, showing that we live in the most ironic of times. European governments are also openly expressing fears and disdain towards\u00a0Trump\u2019s threatened China policies and trade agenda, while many of them have gripes of their own with Beijing.<\/p>\n

In his election campaign, Trump threatened to hit Chinese goods with stiff tariffs and on his first day as president to label China\u00a0a \u2018currency manipulator\u2019. This is more likely a threat, a negotiating tactic. Trump may launch an \u2018investigation\u2019 of China\u2019s currency policies, rather than immediately go into \u2018full conflict mode\u2019 by branding it a \u2018manipulator\u2019, to use this\u00a0as a bargaining chip in the hope of\u00a0obtaining concessions. But in the current global economic environment \u2013 of creeping stagnation \u2013 with nationalist and protectionist pressures on the rise from every quarter, an aggressive \u2018negotiating stance\u2019 from the Trump administration could itself become an added risk factor triggering volatility in financial markets.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Trump administration is playing with live ammunition, implying profound global repercussions,\u201d warns the economist Stephen Roach. There are fears that trade tensions \u2013 Trump\u2019s team are also threatening to target\u00a0other economies from Mexico to Germany \u2013 could lead to a \u201ccycle of retaliation\u201d which would compound the problems of the global economy. Global GDP growth in 2016 was just 3.1 percent, the slowest since the 2008 crisis.<\/p>\n

Capitalist commentators are in general agreed that the US-China relationship is the \u201cmost important bilateral relationship in the world\u201d and is \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d. Combined, these two giants account for more than one-third of global economic output. Since the turn of the century they have been the two main engines of global growth. China is the world\u2019s biggest exporter and the US is second, so a serious trade conflict between them would clearly have dire implications for\u00a0the global economy. At the same time, as China\u2019s rise increasingly challenges US global dominance, their relationship has become increasingly antagonistic and contradictory.<\/p>\n

This did not begin with Trump, it is a process rooted in the nature of capitalism and imperialism.\u00a0Imperialism, as Leon Trotsky said, \u201cby its very nature abhors any division of power\u201d. But under Trump, if the rhetoric becomes policy, then the relationship with China will become fundamentally and openly\u00a0adversarial. An actual shooting war between the\u00a0US and China is not at all a\u00a0likely outcome for many reasons, but that does not mean the situation is devoid of dangers, nor that\u00a0a proxy conflict (such as Russia and the US backing different sides in the Syrian war) is\u00a0excluded.<\/p>\n

Asia-Pacific tensions<\/strong><\/p>\n

A process of militarisation is already underway in the Asia-Pacific region, with the world\u2019s sharpest increase in arms spending and an escalation of territorial and maritime disputes. Beijing and Washington, supported by its Asian allies, most importantly the right-wing Abe government in Japan, are inflaming nationalism and using \u2018security\u2019 fears to increase their economic hold on the region, while of course painting the other side as the \u201caggressor\u201d. All these governments promote their own version of Trump\u2019s mantra\u00a0to make \u201cour nation great again\u201d. In every case this nationalist message is also used to justify more repressive anti-democratic measures against the working class and the poor.<\/p>\n

The deepening US-China rivalry, even before Trump\u2019s arrival, has already resulted in a criminal misdirection of resources across the Asia-Pacific. Six of the world\u2019s top ten arms importers are in this region (including India, China, Australia and Vietnam). Countries like the Philippines and Vietnam are expanding their navies, even seeking to acquire submarine fleets, while these government\u2019s can\u2019t even provide sanitation and clean water for their people. In Vietnam, despite a government programme to deal with this, still only one-tenth of rural households have piped water. In the Philippines, an average of 55 people die every day from diseases linked to unsafe drinking water.<\/p>\n

There is a saying that, \u201cwhen elephants fight the grass gets trampled,\u201d and this is what worsening US-China tensions, even contained as a non-military conflict, mean for the masses across the region.<\/p>\n

While keeping to a restrained tone in official statements, Beijing has signalled\u00a0its irritation by increasing its naval presence in recent weeks. In December it seized\u00a0an American underwater drone (so-called UUV) in what was an unmistakable riposte to\u00a0Trump. In January, China\u2019s PLA Navy has conducted high profile drills with its aircraft carrier group, including sailing close to Taiwan \u2013 to deliver another not-so-discreet message.<\/p>\n

China is likely to step up its military expansion, depending on what policies emanate from Trump\u2019s administration, which would include weaponising its artificial islands in the disputed areas of the South China Sea (this has already begun) and speeding up its naval build-up and missiles programme. While it is currently outgunned by US forces, and Trump has promised to further expand the US navy from 272 to 350 ships, the biggest naval build-up since the 1980s Reagan administration, Beijing\u2019s long-term strategy is to exploit geography \u2013 the cost of long distance deployments \u2013 to wear down the US and its ability to play the \u2018police\u2019 role in Asia and the Western Pacific.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s position involves pressuring US allies to increase their own military spending and also to shoulder\u00a0the full cost of US troop deployments in the region. This can seem like a \u201cneat idea\u201d on paper, but political realities in Japan and South Korea, where the presence and high cost of huge US military bases (38,800 and 24,000 US troops respectively) is already a deeply contentious issue, make this difficult to achieve in practise.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Pandora\u2019s Box<\/strong><\/p>\n

Initially, the CCP regime and its media played down Trump\u2019s historic phone call with Taiwan\u2019s president Tsai Ing-wen in December. This was \u201cjust a small trick by Taiwan\u201d claimed Beijing\u2019s foreign minister. This also shows that the CCP\u2019s general approach will be to smack\u00a0Taiwan \u2013 the weaker and closer target \u2013 rather than directly take aim at the US. Trump, whose team also has a generous quota of\u00a0pro-Taiwan ideologues (including chief of staff\u00a0Reince Priebus), seems intent on manipulating the Taiwan question as part of a wider strategy to confront China.<\/p>\n

His phone call with Tsai was the first time a US leader (or president-elect) has directly spoken with their Taiwan counterpart since 1979. The existing accord between Washington and Beijing, holding to the \u2018One China\u2019 policy, is deliberately ambiguous, designed to maintain the\u00a0\u2018strategic balance\u2019 in the Taiwan Strait by not recognising or having formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, but allowing \u2013 over Chinese protests \u2013 the US to sell arms to Taiwan and maintain close unofficial relations. Taiwan is the third biggest buyer of\u00a0US arms in the Asia-Pacific after South Korea and Australia (source: SIPRI).<\/p>\n

This policy has been followed by every US president since Nixon, which is why Obama, despite orchestrating a significant military build-up to contain China through his \u2018pivot\u2019 strategy, did not tamper with the established Taiwan policy. \u201cIf you\u2019re going to upend this understanding, you have to have thought through what the consequences are,\u201d Obama warned Trump, adding that Beijing\u2019s response could be \u201cvery significant\u201d.<\/p>\n

The issue is a potential Pandora\u2019s Box \u2013 releasing unpredictable forces \u2013 because no Chinese regime could accept any dilution or \u2018renegotiation\u2019 of its international standing vis-\u00e0-vis Taiwan without this risking a serious backlash from within the CCP-state and military. For Xi, who is already gambling his position on trying to shackle the CCP factions and cement his \u2018core leadership\u2019\u00a0in the run up to this autumn\u2019s congress, any concessions to the US over Taiwan could trigger his downfall in the internal power struggle.<\/p>\n

Such an outcome is not at all desirable for the capitalist class internationally who, despite grumblings over the lack of progress\u00a0with Xi\u2019s promised market reforms, fear the alternative scenarios: of China succumbing to internal turmoil or seeing an even more nationalistic reaction take\u00a0control. This is why European government spokespersons can be heard remonstrating with Trump that you \u201cdon\u2019t talk to China that way\u201d.<\/p>\n

Taiwan independence<\/strong><\/p>\n

Socialists support the right of self-determination for the people of Taiwan. They\u00a0have the democratic right to decide and we oppose any threats, coercion or interference, whether by China, the US, or other outside powers. But saying this does not count for much unless it is\u00a0linked to opposing the arms race and militarism, and opposing capitalism which is\u00a0the driving force behind that development.<\/p>\n

A majority in Taiwan favour independence but prefer not to shout about it, believing the current undeclared but \u2018functional\u2019 independence is a safer option, for fear of war with China. It is the policies of the Chinese dictatorship, exerting greater political pressure on\u00a0Taiwan through its economic muscle and cosy relationship with the top Taiwanese capitalists, that is upsetting this precarious balance and pushing the younger generation especially to reject pro-China policies and politicians, like the previous Kuomintang government, and to be more assertive over independence.<\/p>\n

The government of president Tsai and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have in practise abandoned the idea of pushing for formal independence, because the Taiwanese capitalists \u2013 the DPP doesn\u2019t want to antagonise them \u2013 want closer economic ties with China. They definitely don\u2019t want to push things in the direction of a serious conflict that\u00a0could cripple Taiwan\u2019s economy even if war was avoided.<\/p>\n

This shows that the struggle for Taiwan\u2019s independence is linked to the struggle for socialism in Taiwan, in China, and across Asia. On a capitalist basis, small nations and democratic rights will always be dictated to by bigger powers and their economic interests. Trump\u2019s advisors are looking to manipulate the Taiwan question for the purposes of US policy. The island risks becoming a \u201cpawn in Donald Trump\u2019s game\u201d as the Wall Street Journal recently put it \u2013 a bargaining chip used by Washington to exert pressure on the Chinese regime, in the hope of obtaining economic and trade concessions.<\/p>\n

This has not stopped some sections of Taiwan\u2019s independence movement, unfortunately, from falling under Trump\u2019s influence, seeing him as an ally against the Chinese regime. This is the case with the New Power Party, a force that emerged from the mass \u2018Sunflower Movement\u2019 against a pro-China trade deal in 2014. Some\u00a0NPP leaders have\u00a0taken a pro-Trump tone, defending him against \u2018demonisation\u2019. In China,\u00a0human rights campaigners have also expressed their hopes that Trump will speak up for their cause. As the saying goes, there are \u2018none so blind as those that will not see\u2019. Trump has made no secret of his admiration for authoritarian regimes, including his praise for the Chinese dictatorship\u2019s \u201cstrong\u201d suppression of the 1989 democracy protests. He has also campaigned for the right of the US state to use torture \u201cagainst terrorists\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Taiwan independence advocates New Power Party.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cThucydides Trap\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump represents that section of the US ruling class that, seeing China as the main challenger to their global power, believes a more confrontational economic and geopolitical strategy is needed. The contest is fully understood in Beijing, where Xi and the CCP ruling group openly discuss the so-called \u201cThucydides Trap\u201d, named after the ancient Greek philosopher, which says that a rising power will face a military clash with an established ruling power.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s counterstrategy attempts to balance between projecting confidence and strength, not opening itself to the charge of \u2018weakness\u2019 from rival nationalist factions within the CCP-state, while\u00a0at the same time ducking and weaving like a boxer to defer an open conflict with the US. This is also tied to their firm belief that China will \u2018inevitably\u2019 at some point overtake US capitalism economically, shifting the balance of power to its advantage.<\/p>\n

Some economists argue this economic \u2018surpasso\u2019 has already occurred but this seems unlikely and certainly in terms of financial power, and the role of the almighty dollar in the global capitalist economy, the Chinese economy is\u00a0still some way from economic parity with America.<\/p>\n

This suggests that China, while it would certainly be expected to retaliate if the US slaps new tariffs on its exports or takes other punitive measures, will try to calibrate its response to avoid escalating into a full-blown trade war. At the same time, using the WTO, G20 and other global forums, the Chinese regime will project itself as a\u00a0\u201cresponsible global leader\u201d in contrast to a US administration bent on breaking agreements and tearing down the post-World War II global trading system.<\/p>\n

Beijing will actively seek to win more support for its own \u2018globalisation\u2019 projects, all of which are of course China-centric, such as the \u2018One Belt, One Road\u2019 plan (OBOR: a huge infrastructure and state credit programme involving 64 countries), and its proposal for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP: a trade pact grouping together China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, India and the ten ASEAN states, but excluding the US). RCEP has picked up speed since Trump\u2019s election victory, on the expectation that the US-led Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) will be scrapped.<\/p>\n

A new Plaza Accord?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Trump may be calculating that he can\u00a0frighten the Chinese regime with his tough talk on trade, currency manipulation and Taiwan, into accepting a new \u2018grand bargain\u2019 whereby\u00a0China would agree to significant economic concessions to reduce its trade deficit with the US and open up largely state-controlled sectors of the Chinese market to US companies. This would be an attempt by the US to replicate the \u2018Plaza Accord\u2019 of\u00a01985, which forced the Japanese government to revalue the yen and grant other economic concessions under pressure from the Reagan administration.<\/p>\n

But the Chinese regime has studied this history extensively and is fully aware\u00a0that Japanese capitalism soon after 1985 experienced an unprecedented financial bubble, and then the inevitable crash, from which it has not recovered to this day. China is not Japan, and\u00a0for a multiplicity of reasons the chances of such a scenario being replayed\u00a0today\u00a0are close to zero.<\/p>\n

The prospect of an increasingly turbulent US-China relationship, with\u00a0serious trade and economic conflicts, is one that rightly fills most capitalist commentators with dread. For socialists this confirms our analysis that capitalism is dragging humankind deeper into crisis and calamity. Our optimism in the face of these dark\u00a0clouds is because we see the other side of these processes in the growing resistance of workers and young people around the world to capitalism and its political representatives. This is shown most clearly in the mass opposition to Trump that has already announced itself\u00a0\u2013 before he has even entered the White House. The necessary answer to Trump, to capitalism and right wing nationalism in all countries, is the\u00a0building of a mass working class political alternative with a clear socialist programme.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Ancient greek philosopher Thucydides<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

New US president\u2019s anti-China outbursts are raising fears of\u00a0confrontation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":14010,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[148,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-14009","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-international","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nTrump and China: Heading for conflict? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2017\/01\/26\/14009\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump and China: Heading for conflict? 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