{"id":18229,"date":"2018-07-13T12:20:04","date_gmt":"2018-07-13T04:20:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=18229"},"modified":"2018-07-18T02:40:48","modified_gmt":"2018-07-17T18:40:48","slug":"problems-are-piling-up-for-xi-jinping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/07\/13\/18229\/","title":{"rendered":"China: Problems are piling up for Xi Jinping"},"content":{"rendered":"

The system of world capitalism faces an unprecedented crisis and turmoil in international relations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Editorial, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

In March, Xi Jinping was crowned China\u2019s ruler-for-life. It was a historic moment, signifying an unprecedented degree of control over the CCP-state.<\/p>\n

Since then, things have not gone well. On 6 July, the long feared trade war began between the US and China, the world\u2019s two biggest economies.\u00a0China\u2019s trade ministry called it \u201cthe largest trade war in economic history\u201d. That is a somewhat exaggerated statement \u2013 for the time being. But\u00a0an escalation of this tit-for-tat conflict\u00a0now looks\u00a0increasingly likely as our in-depth article Trump\u2019s trade war draws closer<\/em> on chinaworker.info explains.<\/p>\n

Read more:\u00a0Trump\u2019s trade war draws closer\u00a0\u27b5<\/a><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

A trade war of this type has not been fought in today\u2019s globalised capitalist economy. The capitalists themselves don\u2019t fully know the effects this can have in disrupting global supply chains. Of the initial US$34 billion in Chinese exports targeted by Trump\u2019s tariffs on July 6, US$20 billion (58 percent) is produced by foreign companies including US-owned companies, according to Gao Feng of China\u2019s Ministry of Commerce.<\/p>\n

The international outlook has therefore darkened\u00a0considerably\u00a0in the past\u00a0few months. Donald Trump\u2019s trade war\u00a0has\u00a0increased\u00a0tensions between the US and all the major economic powers, not only China. However, China is the main\u00a0\u00a0target.\u00a0Trump has so far implemented tariffs on US$100 billion worth of goods worldwide, but has threatened tariffs on a further US$800 billion worth. China accounts for over half of the total.<\/p>\n

Economists are warning of serious fallout for the global economy if the conflicts are not contained. There is growing pessimism on this point.\u00a0While a deal could be reached between the US and China to avert further escalation, such a deal might not last long. It is equally possible the conflict could drag on for years.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times chief economics commentator, says Trump is engaged in a \u201cwar on the liberal world order\u201d built up primarily by the US itself over 70 years. Trump has even threatened to pull out of the World Trade Organisation if \u201cthey don\u2019t treat us properly\u201d. The trade war policy of the US\u00a0government, a sharp reversal of its post-WW2 role,\u00a0means we are at a historic turning point for global capitalism.<\/p>\n

As we have explained this shift is not only or primarily due to the personality of Trump. The capitalist crisis that began in 2008 brought about seismic changes. The political and economic processes behind rapid capitalist globalisation in the preceding three decades have now partially reversed. The capitalist class of each country, while singing the praises of open markets and globalisation, is turning to protectionist policies.<\/p>\n

According to an IMF report from 2017, world trade in goods and services has grown by just over 3 percent a year since 2012, which is less than half the average rate of expansion of the previous three decades. For foreign direct investment we see an actual fall. Global FDI fell by 23 percent in 2017, to $1.43 trillion from $1.87 trillion a year earlier, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development.<\/p>\n

The sharp falls of the yuan and Chinese stocks during recent weeks are clear\u00a0warning\u00a0signs the Chinese economy is slowing again. Investment\u00a0and consumer spending \u2013 twin drivers of GDP \u2013 both\u00a0seem to have seen growth falling\u00a0sharply in the second quarter.<\/p>\n

The main factor behind this slowdown and the panicky stock market is the credit crunch brought about by the government\u2019s yearlong crackdown on shadow banking and financial risk.\u00a0The trade conflicts with Trump are a supplementary factor, but one that can increase in importance in the months ahead.<\/p>\n

The government\u2019s deleveraging campaign which aims to avert a potentially regime-threatening financial crisis\u00a0has led to a sharp\u00a0reduction in investment growth\u00a0as companies\u00a0access to credit is cut. The really bad news here is that it underlines just how addicted to debt the Chinese economy has become. Gary Liu, president of the Shanghai-based China Financial Reform Institute, told the New York Times the credit squeeze has been severe during the spring: \u201cIt\u2019s very bad, and we see not just small and medium-sized enterprises defaulting but even big companies defaulting\u201d.<\/p>\n

In June, the stock market sank to its lowest level since\u00a0January 2016. US$2 trillion has been wiped off share values in the first six months of 2018, making China\u2019s stock market the world\u2019s second worst performer after Argentina.\u00a0This is not yet on the level of the 2015 market meltdown when China\u2019s stock market lost half its value, US$5 trillion.<\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal\u2019s Shen Hong points out an important difference between today\u2019s bear market and the 2015 version, that this time the selloff in shares seems to be driven by big institutions rather than China\u2019s army of small stock market investors.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe economy was in better shape in 2015, and the stock market had rallied for a long time before the crash. There was also no trade war at that time,\u201d said Amy Lin of Capital Securities.<\/p>\n

At the same time, workers in China have staged a number of bold and coordinated multi-provincial strikes in the construction, transport and service sectors. Big protests by army veterans in several provinces in May and June forced the government to hold crisis meetings\u00a0in late June\u00a0, to speed up measures to end the protests and put some \u2018flesh\u2019 on the bare bones of its new Ministry of Veterans Affairs.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The upsurge in the class struggle, despite workers conspicuously avoiding political slogans, is another major problem for Xi\u2019s regime.\u00a0While\u00a0China\u2019s economy is\u00a0now slowing, many groups of workers have reached breaking point as their wages and working conditions have worsened over recent years.<\/p>\n

These developments put Xi\u2019s elevation to absolute ruler into perspective. Evidently, the near unanimous decision of the March National People\u2019s Congress has not given the president\u00a0\u2018absolute control\u2019\u00a0over the stock market, or the capitalist trading system, or the class struggle. The events now unfolding show the limits of Xi\u2019s \u2018unprecedented\u2019 power.\u00a0His is a regime pressed on all sides \u2013 at home and abroad \u2013 which will be forced to strike a very delicate balance or risk triggering bigger crises.<\/p>\n

The falling yuan, which lost 3.3 percent against the dollar in June, a record monthly drop, and is down 6 percent from March,\u00a0is part of a wider global trend as \u2018emerging markets\u2019 from Turkey to Brazil feel the impact of interest rate rises by the US central bank. This has the effect of tightening credit conditions around the world. Capital is flowing back into\u00a0US dollar assets, which also strengthens the US currency. Countries and companies that have borrowed in dollars, a cheap option over the past decade, now face bigger debt servicing costs.<\/p>\n

The Chinese government may welcome the yuan\u2019s slide, as yet modest, but still the most significant fall since the mini-crisis of 2015. This can be an extra lever of pressure against Trump as a warning that further US trade sanctions\u00a0\u00a0could\u00a0push Beijing into a bigger devaluation.<\/p>\n

But while the regime may win some bargaining advantage from a limited \u2018tactical devaluation\u2019, a more substantial devaluation would create tremendous problems for the Chinese economy.\u00a0This would likely trigger a wider global currency war\u00a0in which economies that are closely connected to China (South Korea, Australia, Japan, Taiwan) would also feel the pressure to weaken their currencies, unleashing a potential \u2018race to the bottom\u2019.<\/p>\n

Read more: Can Xi Jinping defuse China\u2019s debt debt bomb?\u00a0\u27b5<\/a><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

A weaker yuan\u00a0could\u00a0\u00a0blowback on China\u00a0by reigniting massive capital flight as happened in 2015,\u00a0when a whopping US$1 trillion left the country. Among other things, capital flight would aggravate\u00a0the credit squeeze on Chinese companies. It makes it harder, more costly, for the central bank to use monetary stimulus (increasing the money supply and credit) to prevent a sharp drop in GDP growth (hard landing).<\/p>\n

The government is\u00a0already\u00a0back-pedalling on Xi\u2019s \u201cthree year\u201d crackdown on shadow banking and financial risks,\u00a0because of the credit crunch this has created.<\/p>\n

The PBoC (People\u2019s Bank of China) has been forced\u00a0to shift from credit tightening to loosening. This policy shift could\u00a0become more pronounced\u00a0in coming months with a possible return to outright \u2018pump-priming\u2019, new stimulus and infrastructure spending to support economic growth. This of course would further aggravate China\u2019s debt build-up, which is unique in world history, and which gave rise to the financial crackdown in the first place.\u00a0The government will\u00a0probably\u00a0try to disguise any such\u00a0policy\u00a0shift, using manipulated data and strict press controls,\u00a0to show its policies are \u201cconsistent\u201d.<\/p>\n

Censorship is also increasing over other areas of economic policy. The propaganda department is enforcing strict media controls on reporting the trade war as leaked censorship instructions from 29 June show (published on US-based China Digital Times<\/a>).<\/p>\n

Under the ban Chinese media cannot directly report any statements by Trump or his officials. Significantly, the media are no longer allowed to mention the government\u2019s \u2018Made In China 2025\u2019 industrial modernisation plan<\/a>.\u00a0Accordingly,\u00a0while\u00a0Xinhua news agency carried 140 reports on \u2018Made In China 2025\u2019 in the first five months of 2018, there has been nothing since\u00a0June 5. Similarly, state media has been rapped on the knuckles for \u201cexaggerated\u201d reporting with statements such as \u201cthe US is scared\u201d and \u201cChina as number one country in the world\u201d.<\/p>\n

Another example is ZTE, once held up as a symbol of China\u2019s technological greatness. That company\u2019s massive dependence on US-made components has led to a humiliating \u2018rescue\u2019 deal \u2013 still facing opposition from the anti-China chorus in the US Congress. The ZTE deal is reminiscent of the \u2018unequal treaties\u2019 of the colonial era and not surprisingly is also a heavily censored topic in China.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This change of tone by state media represents a very significant (but of course unannounced) political u-turn by the government. Xi Jinping demonstratively abandoned Deng Xiaoping\u2019s mantra, \u201chide our capabilities and bide our time\u201d in favour of nationalistic chest beating. This has been an important component of Xi-ism, which has been blown up to gigantic proportions by a regime-manufactured personality cult. Without a doubt there are many in China\u2019s ruling elite who are now saying, under their breath, that Deng had a point.<\/p>\n

Read more: Xi Jinping aims to be \u201cdictator for life\u201d\u00a0\u27b5<\/a><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Xi himself now feels the pressure that too much nationalism is a constraint on his ability to back down or make deals with the US. This could even undermine his position if he is seen as weak.<\/p>\n

The contradictions are piling up for the Chinese regime, which suffers from an overblown faith in the power of its state capitalist economic interventions combined with authoritarian control and a \u201cstrong leader\u201d.<\/p>\n

The system of world capitalism faces an unprecedented crisis and turmoil in international relations. Trump is just one symptom of this crisis. Only the working class, in China and globally, based on the programme of genuine socialism and international working class solidarity can steer humanity out of this crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The system of world capitalism faces an unprecedented crisis and turmoil in international relations<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":18197,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nChina: Problems are piling up for Xi Jinping - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/07\/13\/18229\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China: Problems are piling up for Xi Jinping - 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