{"id":18508,"date":"2018-09-02T23:39:58","date_gmt":"2018-09-02T15:39:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=18508"},"modified":"2018-09-07T00:25:42","modified_gmt":"2018-09-06T16:25:42","slug":"xi-jinping-a-weakened-strongman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/09\/02\/18508\/","title":{"rendered":"Xi Jinping: A weakened strongman"},"content":{"rendered":"

The US-China conflict, an economic downturn, and rising political discontent have combined to shake Xi\u2019s previously iron grip<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Editorial from Socialist\u300a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e3b\u4e49\u8005\u300bmagazine, September-October 2018 issue<\/p>\n

\u201cHow things have changed,\u201d declared US-based scholar Minxin Pei.\u00a0Pei was referring to the problems now confronting China\u2019s strongman, Xi Jinping, who suddenly doesn\u2019t look quite as strong any more. Pei is among a horde of overseas China watchers who have picked up on the same theme: signs that Xi\u2019s seemingly impregnable hold on power has been undermined by a succession of challenges and crises.<\/p>\n

There are signs of top-level disagreements over policy and, rarely since Xi took power, some have been aired publicly. The most important divisions are over how much stimulus to inject into China\u2019s\u00a0slowing economy and how to deal with US president Trump\u2019s policy of \u2018tariff terror\u2019. Xi\u2019s decision to anoint himself lifetime ruler in March looks more and more as though it will boomerang against him.<\/p>\n

At the time of his virtually unanimous \u2018coronation\u2019 at the National People\u2019s Congress, Xi seemed unassailable.\u00a0Today, while Xi faces no organised or cohesive opposition \u2013 he has dispatched most of his rivals within the ruling elite \u2013 he is facing the most serious challenges of his six-year reign. Rather than explicit opposition, Xi has become more isolated. Fewer of China\u2019s powerful regional barons are now singing his praises. Elite figures are discreetly distancing themselves from the \u201ccore leader\u201d.<\/p>\n

Mass protests<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mass protests have broken out on multiple fronts, something else that represents a sharp departure from Xi\u2019s first years in power. These protests range from tens of thousands of investors in collapsed \u2018P2P\u2019 online credit platforms, to Hue Muslims in northwest China mounting a massive three-day sit-down protest against a proposed Mosque demolition, to a scandal involving defective vaccines which affected over 900,000 children. This was just the latest in a never-ending series of public health scandals in China. The vaccine scandal also throws the spotlight on Xi\u2019s much hyped anti-corruption campaign, \u201cthe biggest in the history of the PRC\u201d, which has changed very little for ordinary people.<\/p>\n

Most significant of all has been the upturn in workers\u2019 strikes, reaching a new level of organisation with the birth of coordinated \u201cmulti-province strikes\u201d. While by no means the biggest of these struggles, the four-month struggle of Jasic Technology workers in Guangdong province to build an independent union, converging with a new wave of left-wing student activism, marks yet another crucial step forward for the fledgling workers\u2019 movement.<\/p>\n

With these events the ground has begun to shift under the feet of Xi\u2019s regime. \u201cPeople\u2019s trust in the authorities has fallen to freezing point,\u201d said Deng Yuwen in the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post. He continued, \u201coverall restlessness is appearing in society and people are crying out for changes to the system.\u201d (SCMP, 15 August 2018)<\/p>\n

As if to reassure the CCP leadership, the Post\u2019s former editor-in-chief Wang Xiangwie declared, \u201cClaims of instability are overblown but discontent is widespread.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"
Damaged portrait of Xi Jinping in Shanghai, July 2018.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Trade war shock<\/strong><\/p>\n

A similarly bleak assessment was offered by\u00a0liberal scholar Xu Zhangrun of Tsinghua University in Beijing, in a widely shared open letter that is unusually daring in its criticism of Xi. \u201cThe recent Sino-American trade war has, in particular, revealed underlying weaknesses and the soft underbelly of the system,\u201d he wrote. \u201cPeople nationwide, including the entire bureaucratic elite, feel once more lost in uncertainty about the direction of the country and about their own personal security, and the rising anxiety has spread into a degree of panic throughout society.\u201d<\/p>\n

Xu\u2019s letter went on to call for Xi\u2019s abolition of presidential term limits to be reversed, and for the 1989 Tiananmen Square \u2018incident\u2019, i.e. massacre, to be re-evaluated.<\/p>\n

In July, a potentially disastrous trade war erupted with the US. The trade war, which is actually more than a trade war, and marks the beginning of a geopolitical squaring off between the world\u2019s two biggest imperialist powers, has acted as a catalyst to transform the political situation in China.<\/p>\n

The Xi regime\u2019s apparent lack of readiness in the face of the Trump administration\u2019s aggressive position has caused an outbreak of doubts, insecurity and recriminations within China\u2019s political and business elite. The blow this has dealt to the regime\u2019s prestige and self-confidant image is a much bigger negative at this stage than the actual economic effects of the US tariffs, which in the short-term could be relatively limited. Escalation of the trade conflict, however, which looks increasingly possible, could inflict much more serious damage on China\u2019s economy.\u00a0This conflict is unlikely to be resolved quickly. It could drag on in different forms, with temporary agreements that break down and are followed by new hostilities.<\/p>\n

Among layers of the population at large these events have dented the image of infallibility surrounding Xi, carefully built up by the regime\u2019s propagandists. As if to confirm a pronounced shift in the public mood, the formerly deafening cult of personality around him has been lowered several decibels. Official Xi posters have been taken down in many cities and the relentless stream of hagiographic media articles has slowed. Propaganda officials, feeling the rise in public discontent, want to reduce the focus on the \u201ccore leader\u201d.<\/p>\n

The trade war and China\u2019s domestic economic woes \u2013 a falling stock market and currency \u2013 have further fanned public disaffection which has been on the rise since the end of last year. Xi\u2019s decision to abolish term limits and rule indefinitely has become a lightning rod for discontent. As we explained at the time this was a high stakes gamble by Xi. Contrary to its intended effects this has become a source of further political instability.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Striking crane drivers in Qinghai, part of a nationwide strike movement.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Leaders \u201clook paralysed\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although the regime\u2019s problems were accumulating before the outbreak of the trade war in July, this dealt a further major blow to the authority of Xi and his coterie. Rather than projecting strength and resolution, as previously, the Xi regime\u2019s reactions smacked of indecision and inertia. \u201cChina\u2019s leaders looked paralysed in the face of Mr Trump\u2019s attacks over trade\u201d said The Economist magazine.<\/p>\n

Credible reports say that Xi\u2019s team were caught off guard, having misread Trump\u2019s intentions and believing that the usual chequebook diplomacy \u2013 offering to buy more US imports \u2013 would enable them to avoid a conflict. Yu Yongding a leading economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the leading government think-tank, conceded that \u201cfew people took this possibility [trade war] very seriously until July 6,\u201d referring to when the first tranche of US tariffs were imposed.<\/p>\n

This was a serious underestimation of the nature of the offensive launched by Washington, while it also has to be said that on the basis of capitalism and capitalist policies there is almost no strategy that would have enabled Beijing to avoid this conflict. It grows out of the contradictions of crisis-ridden global capitalism as well as the special crisis of US capitalism and the inevitability of imperialist conflicts in an era of crisis.<\/p>\n

A big layer within the CCP are now blaming the regime\u2019s triumphalism, over-the-top nationalism and assertive foreign policies such as the \u2018Belt and Road Initiative\u2019 and the military build-up in the South China Sea \u2013 policies that are unmistakably associated with Xi \u2013 for provoking a global backlash against China which includes Trump\u2019s trade war. Like a Chinese version of Trump\u2019s \u2018Make America Great Again\u2019 doctrine, these revanchist policies have been used by Xi to maintain support domestically.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe should keep a low profile\u2026 The trade war has made China more humble,\u201d says Wang Yiwei, the deputy director of the \u2018Xi Jinping Thought\u2019 centre at Renmin University in Beijing. Wang told Bloomberg that in his view the regime needed to \u201crethink\u201d its Belt and Road ambitions. Similar ideas, harking back to Deng Xiaoping\u2019s famous \u201chide your strength, bide your time\u201d mantra, are now bandied about widely in state media. None other than the People\u2019s Daily, the CCP\u2019s main mouthpiece, recently warned against \u201cboastful and arrogant\u201d news coverage about China\u2019s rise, its technological prowess, and overtaking the US.<\/p>\n

The trade war with Trump is the first major international crisis on Xi\u2019s watch. It has also become \u201cthe prism through which Xi\u2019s perceived failings are best projected\u201d according to a Bloomberg opinion piece.<\/p>\n

Stimulus or not?<\/strong><\/p>\n

But the trade war is not the end of Xi\u2019s current woes. Firstly, China\u2019s economy faces far stronger headwinds in the global economy, which go beyond the immediate trade disputes with Trump. The global capitalist crisis that began ten years ago continues to destabilise political systems and sharpen tensions between national capitalist states. The \u2018Belt and Road\u2019 is now facing a concerted pushback from above and below \u2013 from governments like the US, Japan, Australia, India and the EU, who fear losing political and economic influence in these countries, but also from public opinion and rival political factions in \u2018BRI\u2019 countries from Malaysia to Pakistan to Myanmar.<\/p>\n

Secondly, what is now quite a dramatic slowdown in China\u2019s economy began before the trade war. Growth is stuttering because of a credit squeeze created by Xi Jinping\u2019s crackdown on \u201cfinancial risk\u201d which aims to bring runaway shadow banking under control. This policy, which began in 2017, has exposed just how dependent on debt the Chinese economy has become.<\/p>\n

The government has now been forced to execute a partial switch towards stimulus, injecting more liquidity into the banks and pushing local governments to issue more bonds to finance new infrastructure. This is not on anything like the scale of previous stimulus packages however. \u201cThe government isn\u2019t stepping on the accelerator. It is just lifting its foot off the brake slightly,\u201d commented Tom Holland in the South China Morning Post.<\/p>\n

There are several factors behind this attempt to implement two contradictory policies \u2013 stimulus and financial crackdown \u2013 at one and the same time. One factor is again the issue of Xi\u2019s authority. \u201cA u-turn now would be politically embarrassing\u201d for the Chinese leader, Holland notes. A political struggle appears to be underway between those who favour more decisive stimulus measures and those who, with some justification, fear that the complete abandonment of Xi\u2019s deleveraging campaign will increase the risks of a severe financial crisis in the years ahead.<\/p>\n

But since 2008, as Societe Generale economist Wei Yao has pointed out, \u201cChina has had no economic recovery that wasn\u2019t preceded by infrastructure stimulus.\u201d Economists like Yao are not optimistic that the government\u2019s current policies can stave off a much bigger slowdown in GDP in the coming year, especially if the trade war escalates.<\/p>\n

Today, Xi\u2019s regime projects an image of division and indecision also in the field of economic policy. China has indeed entered a \u201cnew era\u201d this year, but not the one Xi boldly proclaimed at the 19th CCP Congress almost one year ago.\u00a0Xi\u2019s \u2018coronation\u2019 and his grand projects are increasingly being exposed as yet more failed \u2018solutions\u2019 to the crisis of the CCP regime and Chinese society.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US-China conflict, an economic downturn, and rising political discontent have combined to shake Xi\u2019s previously iron grip<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":18509,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-18508","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nXi Jinping: A weakened strongman - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/09\/02\/18508\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Xi Jinping: A weakened strongman - 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