{"id":18575,"date":"2018-09-15T13:04:39","date_gmt":"2018-09-15T05:04:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=18575"},"modified":"2018-09-16T16:57:57","modified_gmt":"2018-09-16T08:57:57","slug":"us-china-trade-war-a-long-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/09\/15\/18575\/","title":{"rendered":"US-China trade war: A long conflict?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s tariffs raise international tensions and could derail global economic growth<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo,\u00a0chinaworker.info<\/span><\/p>\n

The trade war between Washington and Beijing looks set to escalate. The Trump administration is poised to impose tariffs \u2013 a punitive tax on imported goods \u2013 on a further US$200 billion of Chinese goods. This would be the biggest move so far in the three-month long conflict and follows from the US$50 billion of Chinese goods targeted by Trump in July. Xi Jinping\u2019s regime reciprocated with its own tariffs on an equal amount of US imports. Further escalation could lead to a \u201cprotracted, bitter battle,\u201d warns veteran US economist Stephen Roach.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s claim that trade wars are \u201ceasy to win\u201d was mocked by Financial Times columnist Gideon Rachman, who compared this to the wildly inaccurate claims of the British ruling class in August 1914 that the first world war would \u201call be over by Christmas\u201d. <\/span><\/p>\n

There is enormous uncertainty even about what strategy the Trump administration is following, if any. Different factions in the government, anti-China hardliners versus more \u2018pragmatic\u2019 Wall Street representatives, send out contradictory signals. Sections of the US capitalist class, their Chinese and global counterparts, are holding their breath to see if the conflict can be contained or escalates with potentially grave implications for the world economy, which is already experiencing turbulence especially in \u2018emerging markets\u2019. <\/span><\/p>\n

Washington\u2019s mixed signals are illustrated by the recent proposal from Trump\u2019s Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for a new round of trade talks with China. This glimmer of hope briefly lifted the gloom on Asian and other stock markets in early September. But Trump quickly disassociated himself from Mnuchin\u2019s move, tweeting he was under \u201cno pressure to make a deal\u201d. Previous talks have proved abortive, despite the Chinese side initially offering significant concessions.\u00a0 <\/span>The result is increased wariness on the part of Xi\u2019s regime fearing that the US side will just keep moving the goalposts if Beijing offers bigger concessions. <\/span><\/p>\n

While the instability and siege mentality of the Trump administration further complicates matters, as it faces \u201cRussiagate\u201d investigations, numerous other domestic crises, and polls predicting a Democratic \u201cblue wave\u201d that could wipe out Republican control of Congress in the November elections, the roots of today\u2019s trade and economic disputes go much deeper than this, to the fundamental inability of global capitalism to take society and the economy forward.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Is Trump winning the trade war?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Imperialist conflict<\/strong><\/p>\n

The more Trump\u2019s trade agenda rolls out the clearer it has become that China is the main target. His administration reached deals with the EU in July and Mexico in August, both of which increase the pressure on Beijing. It\u2019s also clear that this conflict is only partly about trade and is in fact driven by bigger geopolitical and strategic issues as US imperialism seeks to defend its position as the preeminent world power against it\u2019s strongest international rival. <\/span><\/p>\n

As one Chinese fund manager told The Economist magazine, \u201cThe Americans don\u2019t want a deal. They want to screw us.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Having initially gone into battle over the huge trade imbalance between the US and China, Trump\u2019s spokesmen have shifted the focus to technology and Beijing\u2019s \u2018Made in China 2025\u2019 industrial modernisation plan. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t really believe that the US-China dispute is truly about trade imbalance,\u201d said Stephen Roach at a conference in Hong Kong. \u201cI think it\u2019s more of a strategic clash over innovation and technology \u2013 the holy grail of any nation\u2019s economic prosperity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Furthermore, US politicians now speak about the \u201cstructural issues\u201d with China\u2019s economy. They are increasingly taking aim at China\u2019s state capitalist economic model: its large state sector and more extensive government intervention compared to \u201cnormal\u201d free market capitalism. The US and its hungry multinationals, which want to prize open China\u2019s protected state sector, complain that the Chinese approach amounts to \u201ccheating\u201d. Xi, while prepared to offer concessions, will never compromise over this issue which is central to the regime maintaining its dictatorial rule.<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more\u00a0\u27b3 Trump\u2019s trade war draws closer<\/a><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

Trump has claimed his tariffs are working \u201cbig time\u201d against China. But this is a mixture of bravado, showing toughness in order to shore up his domestic position, and the president\u2019s poor understanding of the subject. <\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, the US trade deficit with China and worldwide has actually risen since his first batch of tariffs were introduced. July\u2019s deficit with China (for trade in goods) was a record US$36.8 billion. The total i.e. worldwide US trade deficit also rose to US$50.1 billion \u2013 hardly evidence that Trump\u2019s policies are working. The rise in the dollar, a byproduct of Trump\u2019s policies, is the main reason for this because it has made foreign goods cheaper for US consumers.<\/span><\/p>\n

World\u2019s biggest economies<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Capitalist commentators are increasingly alarmed about the potential impact of a full-blown trade war between the world\u2019s two most important economies, which together account for 40 percent of global GDP and 53 percent of global growth. This could ultimately tip the world economy into recession. <\/span><\/p>\n

It would also enormously frustrate any coordinated international response to a new financial crisis, an eventuality that is not at all excluded. None of the fundamental causes of the previous crisis in 2008 have been addressed. Actually, they have reached even more extreme levels: indebtedness, financial speculation and bubbles. At the same time, as a South China Morning Post editorial recently stated, the policies implemented globally to \u2018solve\u2019 the last crisis have resulted in \u201cthe greatest wealth transfer in history from the have-nots and have-littles\u201d. Trump\u2019s policies, despite his populist rhetoric, only reinforce this process while injecting much greater instability into US and world politics. <\/span><\/p>\n

In addition to the tariffs on US$200 billion of Chinese goods that Washington has approved but not yet implemented, Trump has threatened to slap tariffs on a further US$267 billion of Chinese goods, which would mean a \u201cTrump tax\u201d on everything China exports to the US. <\/span><\/p>\n

The Chinese side retaliated \u201cdollar for dollar\u201d against the first batch of US tariffs in July, but with China importing only US$129 billion in total from the US, compared to the US$505 billion moving in the opposite direction (data for 2017), Beijing will not be able to keep retaliating tit for tat if the conflict escalates. It has other options to exert counter-pressure such as targeting US services, tourism is one obvious example, or taking measures against US-owned multinationals operating in China. <\/span><\/p>\n

But a recent survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that three quarters of US companies based there are predicting reduced profits and sales as a result of the tariffs. Rather than target these companies for retaliation, Beijing is trying to woo them with concessions. It is not accidental that no anti-US protests or boycott calls have broken out in China, on similar lines to past protests \u2013 largely stage managed by the authorities \u2013 against Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. <\/span><\/p>\n

None of Beijing\u2019s options for retaliation are pain free. That of course is implicit in any tit for tat conflict, where deterrence and the political prestige of the governments involved often outweighs negative economic impacts. Xi\u2019s regime does not want to widen the conflict, in so far as it can decide this, and has therefore taken only minimal countermeasures while at the same time muzzling its own media to prevent overly nationalistic and belligerent outbursts.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"
Containers in Qingdao port.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

China\u2019s economic problems<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

This reflects deep concerns within China\u2019s ruling elite over the vulnerable state of the economy. These problems predate Trump and his \u2018America First\u2019 policies, but the trade war could now make things a lot worse. <\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s debt-driven growth model is losing speed. Discontent is rising as social inequality reaches alarming levels. The government is caught on the horns of a dilemma \u2013 to continue its crackdown on debt (to avoid a financial crisis) or revert to debt-financed stimulus (to avoid a sharp slowdown or recession). Its response to the trade war is therefore to try to keep a lid on things and tread a precarious balance in the hope of not \u201cprovoking\u201d Trump further while also not appearing weak. <\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s stock market slump \u2013 shares have fallen 25 percent since January \u2013 is one symptom of mounting economic problems. Total market capitalisation has almost halved since the stock market crash of 2015, from US$10 trillion to 5.7 trillion now. Not only has China lost its position as the world\u2019s second biggest stock market to Japan, but on current valuations its entire stock market is \u201conly worth five Apples\u201d as Bloomberg pointed out recently (US tech giant Apple is worth $1.08 trillion).<\/span><\/p>\n

Read more\u00a0\u27b3 Trump and China: Heading for conflict?<\/a><\/h4>\n

 <\/p>\n

The direct damage to China\u2019s economy from the trade war has been rather limited \u2013 so far. Total exports to the US only account for 4 percent of China\u2019s GDP, but this figure hides a much bigger problem. China\u2019s export sector is a crucial link in a vast system of global production chains which source materials and components from across the wider Asia region and send the finished goods to the US and other mature capitalist markets. <\/span><\/p>\n

The longer a trade war drags on the higher the risk that companies \u2013 foreign and Chinese \u2013 will relocate to other countries outside the trade war. This is a process that was already underway, especially with lower value exporters shifting from China complaining of \u201chigh wages\u201d, to countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Indonesia, where wages are barely one-third of the level in China. South Korea\u2019s Samsung for example has already announced a cut in smartphone output in China, shifting some production lines to India and Vietnam. <\/span><\/p>\n

If Trump makes good on his threat to levy tariffs on all Chinese imports this would have a serious impact causing the loss of 5.5 million jobs, according to Haibin Zhu, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase in Hong Kong.<\/span><\/p>\n

Warnings of financial crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

However an even bigger threat could come indirectly, in the form of a chain reaction of collapsing confidence among the capitalists. This is especially regarding massively inflated Chinese financial assets including property, bonds, wealth management products and other exotic financial instruments. These have been pumped up to ludicrous levels as a result of the credit tsunami of the past decade. A similar process has played out in other \u2018emerging markets\u2019 such as Turkey, Argentina and South Africa, where once again a crisis is brewing. The capitalists and financial speculators are dumping emerging market assets such as stocks and currencies and fleeing for higher returns in the US. <\/span><\/p>\n

The dangers were underlined by former central bank boss,\u00a0<\/span>Zhou Xiaochuan, who said the US tariffs were \u201cnot very significant\u201d in themselves. But he went on to warn, \u201cPeople may become nervous\u2026 Nobody really knows. Suddenly there is a trade war. They may change their mind in terms of stock market investment. This kind of behaviour is much bigger than the real [economic] impact.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Zhou\u2019s latest warning has to be seen in connection with his\u00a0<\/span>headline grabbing comments last year that China could face a so-called \u2018Minsky Moment\u2019, or burst financial bubble, as befell the US economy in 2008 and Asia\u2019s \u2018miracle economies\u2019 in 1997. Zhou, perhaps more than most, knows that China\u2019s unprecedented debt levels, property and investment bubbles, pose huge risks for the economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Most commentators seem to have concluded the trade war is going Trump\u2019s way, but this is short-sighted in the extreme. The US economic upturn of this year may already have peaked while dark clouds are gathering over the world economy, fuelled by the policies of Trump\u2019s government. Both the US and China will lose from this standoff, and unfortunately the working class in both countries will pay the biggest price through business closures, lost jobs and inflation. <\/span><\/p>\n

Socialists don\u2019t support capitalist \u2018free trade\u2019 which is a false label, hiding the exploitation of poorer economies by the most powerful ones. Neither do we support capitalist protectionism, which aims to defend the profits of one set of capitalists against another. The current trade war is yet another wake-up call showing the need to build a socialist alternative internationally to put an end to the toxic system of capitalism. <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s tariffs raise international tensions and could derail global economic growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":18576,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-18575","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international","9":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nUS-China trade war: A long conflict? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2018\/09\/15\/18575\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US-China trade war: A long conflict? 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