{"id":20092,"date":"2019-04-14T03:28:15","date_gmt":"2019-04-13T19:28:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=20092"},"modified":"2019-05-09T21:34:34","modified_gmt":"2019-05-09T13:34:34","slug":"can-the-us-and-china-end-their-trade-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2019\/04\/14\/20092\/","title":{"rendered":"Can the US and China end their trade war?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s \u201ceasy to win\u201d trade war drags on despite intensive efforts to make a deal<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US-China trade war began in July 2018 with the imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports by President Trump\u2019s government and immediate tit-for-tat retaliation by China. This is the biggest trade war since the 1930s and is increasingly taking its toll on the global economy. IMF chief Christine Lagarde, reflecting the fears of global capitalism, recently warned that 70 percent of the world economy is expected to see a slowdown in growth over the next two years, urging governments not to aggravate matters with the \u201cself-inflicted\u201d damage of trade wars.<\/p>\n

Currently the Chinese and US governments are locked in negotiations, which are widely expected to produce a deal. Socialist magazine asked Vincent Kolo of Marxist website chinaworker.info<\/a> to explain the impact of the conflict and the likely outcome of the trade talks.<\/p>\n

Will the US and Chinese governments reach a deal to end their trade war?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A deal is the most likely, but the real question is what kind of deal? I think it will be a largely cosmetic deal with elements that allow both sides to save some face, rather than leading to significant changes in the economic relationship between the US and China. It won\u2019t live up to Trump\u2019s rhetoric about a \u201chistoric\u201d and \u201cepic\u201d deal, and in particular it won\u2019t result in fundamental \u201cstructural changes\u201d in China\u2019s economy which is what the anti-China hawks in the US ruling class are demanding.<\/p>\n

The trick that Trump\u2019s team are trying to pull off in the negotiations and a major reason they are dragging on for so long \u2013 they\u2019ve now had nine rounds of talks \u2013 is to squeeze enough concessions out of China so that it looks like \u201cfundamental changes\u201d have been agreed. Without this Trump will face a lynch mob from within his own party and from the Democrats who\u2019ll accuse him of a sell-out over China. Xi Jinping\u2019s bottom line is that China\u2019s state capitalist economic model is untouchable. Beyond this Beijing can take a flexible approach, as has been shown, over the type and scope of concessions it offers.<\/p>\n

\u2018Belt and Road\u2019: Imperialism with Chinese characteristics<\/a><\/h5>\n

But a deal won\u2019t touch on the real roots of this conflict, which is a battle for economic and great power pre-eminence \u2013 will China or the US be number one? That struggle is not going to be negotiated out of existence, that\u2019s not how capitalism and imperialism work. There can be a deal, which for political reasons both sides will proclaim as a great victory but in reality it will be a kind of ceasefire with the economic conflict shifting from tariffs and trade into other actually more decisive fields such as technology, investments, and geopolitics. We\u2019re already seeing a tug-of-war between the US and China, but also the EU, India, Russia and Japan, over China\u2019s \u2018Belt and Road Initiative\u2019 (BRI) \u2013 the biggest global infrastructure project in history.<\/p>\n

Trump and his negotiators are under pressure to get a deal, but the Chinese regime is also under pressure?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yes but even at this stage, with both sides pushing hard for a deal, we can\u2019t rule out that there won\u2019t be a deal. However, what\u2019s pushing them towards a deal is the faltering global economy and the political risks associated with a recession, which would completely blow Trump\u2019s re-election hopes but could be even more costly for Xi Jinping \u2013 we\u2019re talking about unprecedented mass unrest in China in the event of the first recession in living memory.<\/p>\n

Both sides dread the prospect of fresh stock market turmoil, which erased 13 trillion US dollars from global markets last year, around half of that in the US. Hence the stream of reassuring statements about the talks going \u201cvery well\u201d and \u201cmaking progress\u201d, all designed to boost stock prices and keep the momentum going for more talks. This is an indication of how much more financialised capitalism has become, much greater even than in the run up to the 2008 financial crisis, because the policies followed by governments and central banks since then have had a much bigger impact on stock markets than on the real economy. In the short-term the economic confidence of the capitalists has been restored but this rests on precarious foundations.<\/p>\n

A new stock market crash could by itself plunge the world economy into recession because the stock markets have become \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d \u2013 something of a contradiction in terms.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s position has changed since the trade war began \u2013 has he gone soft on China?<\/strong><\/p>\n

He\u2019s had to pull back at least partly from a disaster of his own making. In July, when Trump imposed the first set of tariffs against China he bragged, \u201ctrade wars are easy to win\u201d. The tone from Washington was very aggressive and provocative. Now the US economy is hurting just as much as China\u2019s.<\/p>\n

The US trade deficit \u2013 initially the issue Trump went to war over \u2013 grew to an all-time high last year, US$891.3 billion with the whole world and a record US$419.2 billion with China (an increase of 11.6 percent from the year before). These figures are a spectacular refutation of Trump\u2019s \u201ceasy to win\u201d bravado.<\/p>\n

At the outset Trump\u2019s administration imagined they could achieve quick results \u2013 they slapped an even bigger set of tariffs in September and Trump threatened that if Beijing retaliated he\u2019d double down, extending tariffs to everything China exports to the US. This extravagant approach was heavily influenced by the US midterms [elections to Congress] with Trump wanting to show he was a tough president. Since then he\u2019s been outflanked by politicians on all sides of Congress who\u2019ve jumped on the anti-China bandwagon.<\/p>\n

This is now complicating the government\u2019s attempts to de-escalate the conflict, while Xi realises he may have to deal with an even more hardline US regime in the future, another factor pushing Beijing to make a deal now.<\/p>\n

The increasing economic toll and the risk things will get much worse in 2019, forced Trump to hit the pause button at his December meeting with Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires. This meant keeping the original tariffs in place but postponing the increases set to take effect on 1 January. This delay has since been further extended as the talks drag on. The original deadline for a deal which Trump laid down in Argentina was 1 March. The latest reports suggest the talks can go on \u201cfor weeks\u201d, possibly until the Osaka G20 summit at the end of June.<\/p>\n

US-China trade war: A long conflict?<\/a><\/h5>\n

Clearly, the two sides are not as close as they want people to think. But they are also under pressure to de-escalate, without losing face. This last point is what\u2019s mainly causing the negotiations to drag out.<\/p>\n

What strategy has the Chinese regime followed in the trade war?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Initially, Beijing was wrong-footed by the tariffs. They thought they could avoid this by offering limited concessions \u2013 basically to buy more from the US especially energy and farm produce. They looked at the issue mainly as an economic problem and underestimated the political dimensions on the US side \u2013 Trump\u2019s need to show a tough hand. Xi\u2019s regime underestimated how far Trump was prepared to go and the support he had for confronting China.<\/p>\n

A year ago, Xi had consolidated his dictatorship and abolished term limits on his rule, increasing state repression to unprecedented levels. There was overconfidence within the ruling group. A domestic backlash against Xi\u2019s authoritarianism was then able to draw some encouragement from the trade war, not in terms of any pro-US sentiment, but rather a feeling of satisfaction that the regime\u2019s all-powerful image had taken a knock. Xi had clearly miscalculated on how to manage relations with the US \u2013 China\u2019s single biggest foreign policy issue.<\/p>\n

Another miscalculation was that Xi\u2019s people thought they could count on pressure from Wall Street and China\u2019s \u201cfriends\u201d within US finance capital to avert a trade war. US multinationals have been a powerful lobby for greater economic ties with China over several decades, but last year we saw a decisive shift. It was something that took the Chinese regime by surprise.<\/p>\n

Wall Street, which has made mega profits from China and US-led globalisation policies in China, has increasingly adapted to the Trumpian doctrine of demanding more radical concessions and punishing China\u2019s alleged economic \u201ccheating\u201d. This is part of a wider strategic shift within the US ruling class, of which the trade war is just one symptom, towards a fundamentally confrontational approach to prevent China from usurping the dominant position of US imperialism.<\/p>\n

We saw this with a recent speech by Jamie Dimon, CEO of J P Morgan Chase, the largest US bank. He said it was \u201cabsolutely right\u201d for the US to enter a trade war with China saying, \u201cWe\u2019re better off dealing with it now, whatever that means for the economy\u201d. When a US banker is saying this it\u2019s clear there\u2019s been a major shake up in the outlook of the ruling class.<\/p>\n

But the nature of this conflict is long-term, with no \u201ceasy wins\u201d \u00e0 la<\/em> Trump. Xi\u2019s regime are now in no doubt that the ground has shifted in the US-China relationship, that it\u2019s not just a question of an unpredictable US president but rather a historic turning point with the \u201cengagement\u201d policies of the past 40 years giving way to open strategic rivalry. Beijing\u2019s counterstrategy is shifting accordingly.<\/p>\n

The concessions China\u2019s negotiators are offering in the latest talks are more substantial than one year ago, but the difference is not huge. The Chinese side have a bottom line in terms of what they are prepared to concede, beyond which they won\u2019t go. They know there is big pressure on Trump not to abandon the talks.<\/p>\n

This, ironically, explains why Trump walked out of his talks in Vietnam with North Korea\u2019s dictator Kim Jong-un. The two sets of talks are superficially unrelated, but actually Trump\u2019s Korean denuclearisation strategy has always ultimately been about increasing the pressure on China and the struggle for political and military hegemony in the Asia-Pacific. Trump\u2019s walkout was partly to pressure Kim over too little progress, but was also a warning to Beijing that the US side is also prepared to walk away from a trade deal unless more concessions are made.<\/p>\n

\"\"
US chief trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer meets Liu He his Chinese counterpart.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What are the remaining obstacles to a deal?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The most significant development so far is the agreement that both sides will set up \u201cenforcement offices\u201d to make sure they each honour the terms of the deal. This issue was a potential deal-breaker because Trump\u2019s team need to show their deal is \u201cdifferent\u201d and China will be held to account.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile China\u2019s negotiators would not agree to any one-sided enforcement mechanism, as first proposed by the US side, or the idea of current US tariffs remaining in place to ensure Chinese compliance. Either of those alternatives would have been politically unacceptable to China, leaving Xi\u2019s regime open to charges it had accepted \u201cinterference in China\u2019s internal affairs\u201d and reviving memories of the \u201cunequal treaties\u201d of pre-revolutionary China.<\/p>\n

But the proposed \u201cenforcement offices\u201d seem to be a fa\u00e7ade that may look impressive but won\u2019t make much difference in concrete terms. As it stands both governments can impose tariffs against the other, even if these are in breach of WTO [World Trade Organisation] rules, which is the case with Trump\u2019s current tariffs. In fact, the whole deal that is emerging will probably be in breach of WTO rules, because the deal is about managed trade rather than \u201cfree trade\u201d, which also shows the WTO is a dying force. The creation of US and Chinese \u201cenforcement offices\u201d is an act of showmanship on one hand to convince sceptics in the US Congress that the deal has \u201cteeth\u201d, and to remove the stigma on the Chinese side of accepting anything that isn\u2019t mutual and reciprocal.<\/p>\n

There are other potential obstacles to a deal. The US side has reportedly drawn up 150 pages of agreements to be signed including detailed agreements in six contentious areas: forced technology transfer and cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture and non-tariff barriers.<\/p>\n

On currency, for example, there are reports the Chinese side has agreed not to use devaluation to counteract the effect of tariffs and to give more information to the US about its currency policies. But actually this is in line with Beijing\u2019s own interests, which are to broadly maintain the current exchange rate. Beijing is far more concerned at this stage about yuan depreciation triggering capital flight than the upside of this which would be increased exports.<\/p>\n

Likewise in agriculture, the Chinese side has promised huge additional purchases of US farm goods as part of a trade deal. More politically sensitive, and state media have begun preparing domestic opinion for this, Trump\u2019s people are demanding a lowering of Chinese farm tariffs, which potentially could be a heavy blow for many of China\u2019s poor farmers.<\/p>\n

Beijing will surely announce subsidies and other support measures to cushion the impact of this concession, but it conforms to a wider pattern with China\u2019s concessions falling broadly into two categories: They are either things the Chinese regime can afford \u2013 buying more soybeans and oil from the US will cost countries like Brazil and Iran more than it costs Beijing \u2013 or they are rather vague commitments to \u201creform\u201d that can be haggled over and dragged out. That\u2019s of course a well-honed tactic of the Chinese regime.<\/p>\n

But Xi\u2019s regime won\u2019t sacrifice \u201ccore areas\u201d which are anything vital to their state capitalist economic model such as state subsidies, protection of key state monopolies and creation of \u201cnational champions\u201d. This is not primarily an economic but a political question. Xi, who represents the billionaire princelings [hereditary leaders] within the Chinese regime, state and economy, is fully aware that the regime\u2019s future as a one-party dictatorship rests on its ability to bend the economy \u2013 with the \u201cpolice club\u201d to use Leon Trotsky\u2019s term \u2013 to the needs of regime survival and not become a hostage of \u201cthe market\u201d as is the case with Western capitalist regimes. And politically, the Chinese side won\u2019t sign up for any deal that makes it look like they caved to US pressure. They can dress up many of their trade concessions as \u201creforms\u201d that while corresponding with US demands actually came from within China.<\/p>\n

\"\"
Donald Trump walked out of his summit with Kim Jong-un in Hanoi.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What affect will a US-China deal have on the world economy and will it mean an end to confrontation?<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the economy it could give a temporary boost, mainly in terms of financial froth, a new surge on stock markets, but even that\u2019s not a certainty. Markets, which have soared since the start of the year, have largely priced in a US-China deal. A breakdown in the talks on the other hand could unleash havoc.<\/p>\n

For the real economy it\u2019s debateable what a deal would mean. The US, China and other major economies are all slowing in 2019. Parts of Europe are in outright recession. The Chinese regime\u2019s new stimulus measures \u2013 the biggest tax cuts in ten years and an explosion of new debt \u2013 are having some effect, a partial steadying of the economy, but the effects get smaller and smaller every time with Beijing\u2019s stimulus, while the debt problem gets bigger.<\/p>\n

Companies that began relocating their production out of China even before Trump\u2019s tariffs are likely to continue doing so. Unless the deal is much stronger than we expect, it won\u2019t coax these companies back to China because the uncertainties mean they want to hedge, moving factories to Vietnam and other parts of Asia, but almost in no case back to the US.<\/p>\n

On the US-China relationship, a trade deal won\u2019t represent a re-set or a return to the pre-2018 situation. That\u2019s gone forever. Instead, as economist Stephen Roach says, what is posed is a \u201cprotracted struggle\u201d, what he called \u201ccold war 2.0\u201d. Roach also argued that the US economy is in far worse shape \u2013 due to higher debt levels and slower growth \u2013 to wage a cold war today than it was in the period 1947 to 1991.<\/p>\n

Another crucial difference is that in the previous cold war, between a capitalist US and Stalinist USSR, the latter\u2019s state-owned and bureaucratically (mis)managed economy was far less integrated into the global economy than China\u2019s state capitalist economy is today. China is the largest trading partner for 124 countries compared to 76 for the US. There are 120 Chinese companies in the Fortune 500 [the world\u2019s largest companies], just behind the US with 126, and well ahead of Japan with 52 in third place.<\/p>\n

Conflicts over the BRI, Huawei and 5G technology especially, the South China Sea and other territorial disputes, are all likely to worsen. The Global Times [a major regime-controlled newspaper] recognised this when it recently warned, \u201cIt is a bad idea to assume that the two sides can sort out their trade matters and then to focus on fierce political and security rivalry.\u201d But in reality this is the most probable outcome.<\/p>\n

What is the socialist alternative to the trade war and economic nationalism?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The events of the past year, the escalating conflict between the US and China, but also tensions with the EU and other major powers, are symptoms of a chronic condition afflicting global capitalism. The system cannot shake itself free from the crisis that began more than ten years ago.<\/p>\n

Governments fear mass upheavals as we are again seeing in the Arab world with the uprisings in Algeria and Sudan against brutal dictatorships. The capitalists are increasingly forced to look for \u2018national\u2019 solutions, variants of Trump\u2019s \u2018America First\u2019 doctrine. Capitalist globalisation, with its mega profits for the billionaires, has given way to \u201cslowbalisation\u201d as the Economist magazine called it, with each capitalist government protecting their own companies and markets and resorting to economic and geopolitical bullying in the sphere of international relations. From 1987 to 2007 world trade averaged 7 percent growth every year, but this slowed to just 3 percent from 2008 to 2014, and has slowed further since then.<\/p>\n

For the working class both these phases of capitalist development, pre- and post-2008, have resulted in greater exploitation and poverty, economic, environmental and even military disasters.<\/p>\n

The workers\u2019 movement needs an independent approach, refusing to line up behind the economic nationalism of right-wing politicians like Trump or the neo-liberal globalisation policies of liberals but instead demanding policies that strengthen workers\u2019 rights, jobs and the ability to organise freely. We fight for the nationalisation under workers\u2019 control and management of companies that threaten to relocate, close or outsource production blaming \u201cforeign competition\u201d.<\/p>\n

Organisational links need to be built between unions and workers\u2019 organisations internationally. Unions in the US and other countries should demand trade union rights in China, while also fighting to democratise their own unions and turn them into fighting organisations. International solidarity is needed to support Chinese workers against the Chinese regime\u2019s ban on independent unions and the right to strike. This is the socialist alternative, to stand independently of the capitalists but in united struggle with the working class everywhere, rejecting all capitalist solutions and fighting instead for democratic public ownership and control of the major companies to facilitate democratic planning and socialist trade policies. This is how to prevent the working class being divided by nationalism and politicians like Trump and Xi which would be the road to defeat.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump\u2019s \u201ceasy to win\u201d trade war drags on despite intensive efforts to make a deal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":20094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail"],"yoast_head":"\nCan the US and China end their trade war? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2019\/04\/14\/20092\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can the US and China end their trade war? 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