{"id":20313,"date":"2019-05-13T16:18:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-13T08:18:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=20313"},"modified":"2019-05-14T13:30:54","modified_gmt":"2019-05-14T05:30:54","slug":"us-china-trade-war-escalates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2019\/05\/13\/20313\/","title":{"rendered":"US-China trade war escalates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Trump ramps up tariffs against China and rocks global stock markets<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n\n\n\n

President Trump\u2019s decision to increase punitive\ntariffs against China from one minute past midnight on Friday, 10 May, marks a\ndramatic escalation of the 10-month old trade war between the world\u2019s biggest\neconomies. This follows months of talks and the widespread impression,\nencouraged by Trump and his officials, that a trade deal was close to hand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The escalation of the conflict has sent jitters\nthrough global financial markets, hitting stocks, currencies and commodity\nprices. Bloomberg calculated that almost US$1.5 trillion was wiped from global\nstock indexes in the four trading days following Trump\u2019s \u201cbombshell\u201d tweet the\nprevious Sunday (5 May) threatening higher tariffs. That works out at 13\nbillion dollars per word!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US and China are playing \u201cRussian roulette with\nthe world economy\u201d protested the president of the European Union Chamber of\nCommerce in China. The real losers, rather than the capitalists who are\ncomplaining about disruption of supply chains and reduced profits, are workers\nand consumers in the US, China and worldwide, whose jobs and living standards\nare at stake. US computer technology giant Oracle recently announced 1,600 job\ncuts in China, with employees at its Beijing Research and Development Centre\nstaging walkouts and protests on 7 May. Oracle\u2019s boss Larry Ellison, one of the\nwealthiest men in the world, is a vocal supporter of Trump\u2019s trade war against\nChina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US tariffs are raised to 25 percent from 10\npercent, the level set last September, on US$200 billion worth of Chinese\nimports. This ranges from consumer goods such as vacuum cleaners and furniture\nto capital goods and components such as auto parts and building materials. A\nfurther US$50 billion of Chinese imports are already covered by a tariff of 25\npercent. Trump has also threatened to up the ante by extending tariffs to the\nremaining US$325 billion of Chinese imports \u2013 taxing everything.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chinese\nregime retaliated last year in tit-for-tat fashion and also vowed this time to\ntake new as yet unspecified countermeasures. The scale and form of these\ncountermeasures will give an indication whether Beijing believes the negotiations\nthat restarted last December have irrevocably collapsed or that Trump\u2019s tariff hike is a negotiating\ntactic, to \u201cact half crazy\u201d, a possibility raised by billionaire Warren Buffet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China sells almost four times as much to the US than\nit buys in return and therefore any tariff war between the two countries is \u2018asymmetrical\u2019,\nincreasing the possibility that China could retaliate in other ways \u2013 through\ndepreciation of its currency or taking measures against US companies based in\nChina \u2013 although at this stage neither of these options is likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Threat to world growth<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the strategists of global capitalism this turn of events\nis alarming as underlined by the comment of the French Finance Minister Bruno\nLe Maire, \u201cThere is no greater threat to world growth\u201d. A full-blown trade war\nbetween the two superpowers, a reality if Trump makes good on his threat to slap\ntariffs on all remaining Chinese goods, could translate into a contraction of\nglobal trade by 2 percent and cause global GDP to slow by 0.8 percent according\nto the Guardian. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even before the latest tariff escalation, the IMF had downgraded\nits 2019 growth forecasts three times in six months, predicting in April that\nthe global economy will grow 3.3 percent this year, the weakest rate of growth\nsince 2009. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US economy could be hit just as hard as China\u2019s by\nthe escalation of the trade war. Many economists predict inflation will ticks\nupwards as the tariffs feed into higher US consumer prices. One study\ncalculates the cost to the average US household of higher tariffs on Chinese\nproducts to be US$767 a year. Faster inflation could put additional pressure on\nthe Federal Reserve to increase interest rates despite Trump\u2019s efforts to get\nit do just the opposite. The stock market boom since the start of the year is built\nmore than anything else on hopes for a rapid resumption of the Fed\u2019s loose\nmoney regime, which has acted like rocket fuel for financial speculation and an\never more parasitical capitalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wide sections of the US ruling class support Trump\u2019s\nharder line against China, especially while the US economy appears to be strong\n\u2013 an illusion in our opinion \u2013 but many also complain that the president\u2019s tariffs\nare a \u201cblunt instrument\u201d and would prefer a united front approach against China\nto enlist the support of other Western capitalist governments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These events underline how unstable and volatile world\nrelations have become as \u201cthe world\u2019s most important bilateral relationship\u201d,\nbetween the US and China, spirals downwards. Last year marked a major turning\npoint, and the start of a new era of imperialist great power antagonisms often\nsummed up in the concept of a \u201cnew cold war\u201d. This shift is not solely or\nmainly as result of Trump\u2019s political make-up, but flows from the nature of\nimperialism, which as Leon Trotsky said, \u201cabhors any division of power\u201d. China\u2019s\nrise, its ability increasingly to compete with American capitalism in key\nmarkets, has pushed it into the cross hairs \u2013 at least in economic terms \u2013 of\nthe US ruling class and state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other potentially very big trade disputes loom, over\ncars for example, with Trump threatening more tariffs against Japanese and\nEuropean manufacturers. Aircraft and steel are other areas of conflict between\nthe US and the EU. These are precisely the \u201callies\u201d the US should bloc with to\nexert pressure on China according to many of Trump\u2019s capitalist critics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more: US-China trade war \u2013 can Xi and Trump back away from conflict? \u27b5<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cTwo autocratic men\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sudden possible collapse of the d\u00e9tente process\ninitiated by Trump and Xi last December, which has seen eleven rounds of\nintensive shuttle diplomacy between Washington and Beijing described incessantly\nas \u201cproductive\u201d and \u201cgoing very well\u201d not least by the US president himself, points\nto increasing serious political and economic pressures on both sides of the\nPacific. Both the Trump and Xi regimes risk being swept into a political storm\nif they are perceived to have delivered a weak agreement (Trump) or made too\nmany concessions (Xi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cGlobal trade is now hostage to the fragile egos of two\nautocratic men\u201d commented Jamil Anderlini in the Financial Times. While this is\nan oversimplification there is undoubtedly some truth here. The price for both\nleaders is extremely high, possibly even costing them their hold on power, should\nthey sign an unpopular or humiliating accord. Both regimes are partly captives\nof their own demagogic nationalism encapsulated in the slogans \u201cMake America\nGreat Again\u201d and its Chinese equivalent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While both Beijing\nand Washington want to project strength, in reality both fear the effects of\nthis conflict, which have moved beyond the relatively painless phase of the\ninitial few months of tariffs. Trump will face increasing pressure in key\nfarming states, which helped him win the 2016 election, and which are already suffering\nfrom China\u2019s retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans. Last year Trump\u2019s government\ninitiated a US$12 billion support fund for farmers, most of which goes to big\nagribusiness, labelled by some as \u201csocialism for farmers\u201d. As the latest tariffs\nkicked in, Trump tweeted he would buy US$15billion of US farm products with the\nproceeds from his tariffs and send it to \u201cpoor and starving countries\u201d as\nhumanitarian aid. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

U-turns<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In our\nprevious analysis on chinaworker.info, while like most commentators we believed\na deal was the most likely outcome (and this is still not excluded), we\nexplained that, \u201cClearly, the two sides are not as close as they want people to\nthink. But they are also under pressure to de-escalate, without losing face.\nThis last point is what\u2019s mainly causing the negotiations to drag out.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more: Can the US and China end their trade war? \u27b5 <\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The build up\nto the May 10 escalation seems to be a u-turn or series of u-turns by the two\nmain protagonists. Trump blames the Chinese side for \u201creneging\u201d on previous\ncommitments. \u201cThey broke the deal,\u201d he told a campaign rally in Florida. The US\ngovernment\u2019s version has been widely accepted by most media worldwide, but as\ndetails of the 150-page draft trade agreement are still secret this is impossible\nto verify.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While this\ntype of blame game is a familiar practise of diplomacy, and while we are\nentitled to be sceptical towards any statement from the Trump White House,\nreports are emerging from China to suggest there has indeed been push back from\nwithin the regime, including pressure from nationalist hardliners, against\nmaking too many concessions to Trump. This includes the alleged comment of Xi\nJinping, \u201cI will be responsible for the consequences\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cMatters of principle\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Liu He,\nChina\u2019s chief negotiator, threw more light on this in comments made as he was\nleaving Washington following the abortive and rather perfunctory eleventh round\nof talks, which lasted just three hours in total, and unsurprisingly failed to\nprevent Trump\u2019s escalation. While trying to downplay the crisis, saying \u201csmall\nsetbacks are inevitable\u201d, Liu denied China had \u201creneged\u201d on previous areas of\nagreement. From a transcript of his speech posted on Hong Kong-based website\nPheonix Television, Liu identified three key issues over which attempts to\nreach a deal have faltered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The first is\nBeijing\u2019s insistence that all Trump\u2019s tariffs are removed, with the US side\npushing for at least some tariffs to remain in force or for a phased removal to\ninsure China\u2019s compliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The second\nrelates to China\u2019s procurement of US goods \u2013 major purchases of agricultural\nand other goods \u2013 which were already put on the table when Xi and Trump met in\nDecember on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. According to Liu\nthe two sides now have different views on what was actually agreed, with the US\nevidently demanding a cash sum the Chinese side are not prepared to meet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The third issue\nconcerns the Trump team\u2019s insistence that China\u2019s government commits to incorporate\nkey aspects of the agreement into Chinese law to address US complaints over\ntheft of intellectual property and trade secrets, forced technology transfers,\ncompetition policy and subsidies to state companies, US access to the China\u2019s financial\nsector, and currency \u201cmanipulation\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The clear connotation\nof such an accord would be to cast China and Xi\u2019s regime in a submissive role,\nechoing the \u2018unequal treaties\u2019 forced upon China by imperialism in the past. It\nis unsurprising therefore that Liu stated these were \u201cmatters of principle\u201d\nover which the Chinese side was not prepared to compromise. However, US\nobjections in respect to technology and intellectual property have also become\n\u201cmatters of principle\u201d \u2013 these are essential parts of Trump\u2019s program and a big\npart of the reason he gets the support of US capitalists in this conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The ghost of Yuan Shikei<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chinese\nregime has been prepared to make concessions in order to reach a deal with\nTrump\u2019s government, while also understanding this won\u2019t fundamentally shift the\ntrajectory of US-China relations, which is towards sharper great power rivalry.\nThe Chinese regime\u2019s strategy is to achieve a de-escalation of the trade war,\nto buy time in which to continue its modernisation of industry and build a\nstronger technological base, cognisant that the country\u2019s social and economic\nproblems are piling up. But as we explained Beijing\u2019s willingness to making\nconcessions has limits: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cBut Xi\u2019s\nregime won\u2019t sacrifice \u2018core areas\u2019 which are anything vital to its state\ncapitalist economic model such as state subsidies, protection of key state\nmonopolies and creation of \u2018national champions\u2019.\u201d [Can the US and China end\ntheir trade war? chinaworker.info 14 April 2019]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Chinese\nregime \u2013 a dictatorship which combines state-directed capitalist economic\ndevelopment with unprecedented levels of repression and political control \u2013\nlives in fear of massive social unrest which could endanger its survival. There\nare multiple challenges in the form of an increasingly sluggish economy, a simmering\ndebt crisis and widening inequality, all of which could be further compounded\nby the trade offensive of Trump and US imperialism. The regime\u2019s and especially\nXi\u2019s aura of invincibility, as an all-powerful ruler at the head of the most\nexpensive police state in history, are necessary ingredients to its rule. This\nexplains Xi\u2019s refusal, even at the cost of possible serious escalation, to\ncompromise on what his mouthpiece Liu He called \u201cmatters of principle\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With good\nreason, Xi fears he could be attacked as a \u201cweak\u201d ruler by factional enemies\nwithin the CCP (so-called Communist Party), which could also become a lightning\nrod for mass discontent. The 100th anniversary of the May Fourth Movement, which\ncoincided with the latest tariff standoff, provides many lessons for China\u2019s\nrulers and the masses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi was\nwidely compared last year, when he abolished presidential term limits enabling\nhim to rule indefinitely, to the power-crazed but brief president Yuan Shikei.\nYuan proclaimed himself emperor in 1915, but is also remembered as a weak ruler\nwho caved into demands from Japanese imperialism. This was an important part of\nthe background to the May Fourth mass protests in 1919, which marked the start\nof a decade of revolutionary upheavals. \u201cXi is very concerned about his\nauthority, as he doesn\u2019t want to be seen like Yuan Shikai,\u201d noted Wu Qiang, a\nformer politics lecturer at Tsinghua University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Media censorship<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Xi\nregime\u2019s sensitivity to criticism is illustrated by new tough media censorship\nto block most reports about the trade war. \u201cWe have received instructions that\nwe can only publish comments made by the spokesmen of the commerce and foreign\nministries,\u201d the news editor of a major Chinese media outlet told Hong Kong\u2019s\nSouth China Morning Post on condition of anonymity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi is therefore forced to tread a very fine line. He does not want to completely abandon the possibility of a trade accord with US imperialism. Hence the restraint shown so far which includes muzzling the Chinese media\u2019s natural predisposition towards strident nationalism and anti-Westernism. This explains why Liu He went to Washington on a thankless mission (although significantly this time stripped of the title \u201cspecial emissary of president Xi Jinping\u201d), which represented a departure from Beijing\u2019s previous position that it would not negotiate under threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will there be a deal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A window was\nleft open by the Trump administration with its announcement that the increased\ntariffs would not apply to goods that left Chinese ports before the May 10\ndeadline. Those ships already at sea will not face the new tariffs, allowing a\nfurther month for a deal to be concluded between the two sides. Liu told the\npress that new talks would be held, next time in Beijing, but this has been\ncontradicted by some Trump officials. Chinese regime strategists are now comparing\nthe situation to the Korean War (1950-53) in which for two years China, under\nMao Zedong, waged war against the US while negotiating at the same time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile Trump\nhas signalled a further escalation with the announcement by Robert Lighthizer,\nhis top trade negotiator, that the government was formally initiating the\nprocess to extend tariffs to the remaining US$325 billion of Chinese imports. These\ntariffs could be introduced in one month, Lighthizer said, although Larry\nKudlow who heads Trump\u2019s National Economic Council, said a timeline of \u201ctwo to\nthree months\u201d is more realistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These contending\npressures have injected enormous uncertainty into the situation, in which a\ncomplete breakdown of the fragile d\u00e9tente process (i.e. all-out trade war) is\none possibility, as is a largely cosmetic trade agreement, but also a prolonged\nstalemate in which talks continue, punctuated by new threats and crises. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read more: US-China trade war: A long conflict? \u27b5<\/a><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The confusion is compounded by Trump\u2019s habit of sending out sharply contradictory signals, Jekyll-and-Hyde-style, suggesting wildly different outcomes. Trump spoke of a \u201cbeautiful letter\u201d he received from Xi Jinping, but within hours accused the Chinese regime of stalling in the hope they\u2019ll \u201cget lucky\u201d with a Democratic victory in next year\u2019s presidential elections (Beijing is in fact fully aware that a Democratic White House could stand for an even tougher anti-China line).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This\nuncertainty was summed up by UBS financial strategist Chris Krueger, \u201cTo\nparaphrase Lenin: there are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks\nwhen decades happen\u2026 and then there is a single week in the Trump Presidency.\nWhat a time to be alive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not a reassuring scenario even for US capitalism. \u201cWe are concerned that this gets worse and instead of a tariff regime that lasts for a few months, we see a tariff regime that lasts for years,\u201d a spokesman for the US National Retail Federation told the Financial Times. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bigger\npicture, where US-China relations have shifted onto a completely different and\nfundamentally antagonistic trajectory is largely unchanged, although a complete\nbreakdown in the trade talks can inflame other areas of contention. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even with a\ntrade deal, there is a concerted pushback by the US against Chinese tech\ncompanies, most notably Huawei, and against China\u2019s Belt-and-Road Initiative \u2013\nXi\u2019s grand infrastructure strategy to construct a 70-nation China-centric\neconomic sphere as a counterweight to US economic and financial dominance. Just\nthe day before Trump\u2019s tariff escalation, China Mobile, the world\u2019s biggest\ntelecom company, was banned from operating in the US market as a \u201cthreat to\nnational security\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-China\nrivalry is also intensifying over maritime disputes in the Western Pacific and\nSouth China Sea, over Taiwan, which could become a major flashpoint in future,\nand even in Africa and Latin America where the interests of the two superpowers\nare increasingly at odds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s\npolitical and diplomatic uncertainty, not to say chaos, with global trading\nrules and capitalist international institutions such as the IMF and WTO weakened\nand increasingly sidelined, is indicative of a global system in decay. Capitalist\nnationalism, of which both Trump and Xi are exponents in different forms, is no\nmore of a solution than the globalised neo-liberal order favoured by the main\nwing of the capitalist class internationally for more than three decades.\nLikewise, both US-style \u201cfree market\u201d capitalism and China\u2019s authoritarian\ncapitalism represent two variants of a redundant economic system. The working\nclass is the only force, drawing behind it all the oppressed, which can put an\nend to this chaotic state of affairs, by fighting for international socialism\nand democratic planning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump ramps up tariffs against China and rocks global stock markets<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":20317,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-20313","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international","9":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\nUS-China trade war escalates - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2019\/05\/13\/20313\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US-China trade war escalates - 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