China to spend $200 billion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe main elements of the \u2018phase\none\u2019 deal are a pledge by the Chinese government to buy an additional $200\nbillion of US goods and services over the next two years, a partial roll back of\ntariffs, undertakings that China will open its financial services sector to\nforeign companies, strengthen its IP (intellectual property) protection and end\nforced technology transfers which have been a long-term gripe from foreign\ncapitalists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
As an additional sweetener the US\ngovernment removed China from its list of \u2018currency manipulators\u2019, reversing a\ndecision of last August when relations between the two sides hit a particular\nlow. Beijing has agreed it will not devalue the renminbi against the dollar in\norder to offset US tariffs, and will show greater transparency in its currency\npolicies. For the moment, Beijing is clearly banking on currency stability and\na \u2018strong renminbi\u2019 as it grapples with a debt crisis and seeks to attract more\nforeign capital. But the currency pledges included in the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal seem\nunlikely to survive in the longer term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mostly, China\u2019s concessions \u2013\nsuch as its opening of financial services and tougher IP protection \u2013 are not\nnew and they are all steps the Chinese regime itself wants to take. In much the\nsame way as when it joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, Beijing\nhopes to harness external pressure to reinforce its efforts to force\nrecalcitrant regional governments and state-owned companies to bend the knee to\nits economic reform policies. The days of the Chinese economy being based mainly\non cheap pirate copies are largely over. Given the rapid growth of Chinese tech\ncompanies, with world leaders in certain fields (as exemplified by telecom\ngiant Huawei), greater IP protection is a matter of self-interest for the\nChinese capitalists and not only to placate foreign capitalists. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
A major aim of the Chinese\nregime, which the trade war makes even more urgent, is to speed up the development\nof national tech standards and brands largely achieved by copying and adapting\nthe technology from more advanced countries, but legitimised and protected by\nstronger IP laws. Rather than dismantling its state capitalist model (state\nintervention and a degree of planning), the US-China conflict pushes Beijing to\nrely even more heavily on such methods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cMarket principles\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThere are many questions about\nthe deal\u2019s viability, especially whether China will be able to honour its $200\nbillion worth of pledges. This breaks down as an additional $80 billion on US\nmanufactured goods, over $50 billion on energy supplies, $32 billion on farm\nproducts and $35 billion on services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But as its economy slows China\u2019s\nimports, worth $2 trillion in 2018, are no longer growing. The agreed increases\nin US imports, if they are achieved, will most likely come through \u2018trade\ndiversion\u2019, which is against the rules of the WTO, whereby China for examples\nbuys farm goods from the US at the expense of suppliers in Brazil or New\nZealand, and chooses Boeing over Europe\u2019s Airbus to fill its aeroplane orders.\nThis could lead to a rash of trade disputes and retaliation involving countries\non the losing end of these arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Already Chinese officials are\nstressing that its purchases of additional US imports must be \u201cmarket based\u201d\nand not a \u201cone-sided obligation\u201d. It is clear from this that Beijing will\nattempt to manoeuvre and stall for time, which is a trademark of its economic\ndiplomacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are also doubts that US\nfarmers can actually meet the extra demand from China if it should fulfil its\ntargets under the agreement. The seasonal nature of agricultural production\nmakes the picture even more complicated. As the Chinese economist Andy Xie\nargues, \u201cThis [meeting the target] is unlikely to happen for 2020 as it is\nalready too late to place orders for many commodities, such as soybean. It\ncould happen for 2021. But by then, expect the bickering to restart.\u201d (South\nChina Morning Post, 20 January)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Permanent damage<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nClearly, the road ahead will be\nturbulent. Still, the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal may hold until the US presidential\nelections in November, because both sides will want to avoid a formal collapse\ndue to their respective economic and political vulnerabilities. In Trump\u2019s\ncase, while the substance of the deal invalidates such claims, he intends to\nexploit this in his re-election bid as a victory over China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The trade war that began in 2018\nhas caused permanent and irreversible damage to the world economic order that\nexisted before this. That was characterised by the growing interdependence of\nthe Chinese and the US economies as the central economic relationship of world\ncapitalism. Commentators coined terms like \u2018Chimerica\u2019 and the \u2018G2\u2019 to sum this\nup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
That is now a bygone era. It has\ngiven way to an increasingly adversarial relationship between imperialist\npowers, and especially the two giants, the US and China. Even after the signing\nof the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal the average tariffs between the two countries is now\n19.3 percent compared to three percent before the trade war began. Tariffs,\nwhich are a tax on imports, are now in the words of one financial commentator,\n\u201clike a [cock]roach motel \u2013 they never leave!\u201d Higher tariff levels on a more\nor less permanent basis are destined to clog up the arteries of global trade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The WTO reported an increase in global trade of 1.2 percent last year, less than half its 2.6 percent forecast from April 2019. By comparison, global trade grew by an average of 6.9 percent every year from 1990 to 2007, spurring the growth of the global economy. In its most recent report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the accumulative negative impact on the global economy of the US-China dispute between 2018 and the end of 2020 would be 0.8 percent of GDP, but says this could fall to 0.5 percent if the \u2018phase one\u2019 truce becomes \u201cdurable\u201d. These are significant reductions when global GDP growth was just 2.9 percent last year, according to the IMF, and is forecast to grow 3.3 percent in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
No winners<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTrump is proclaiming this a\n\u201chistoric\u201d victory, describing the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal as \u201ca big, beautiful\nmonster\u201d. This is classic Trump hyperbole to disguise a very modest and\npossibly short-lived agreement, the making of which inflicted huge damage on\nboth economies. Most of the concessions from the Chinese regime were on the\ntable even before Trump began to raise tariffs in 2018. Even the size of the\nsigned document, 86 pages, is demonstrative \u2013 most trade agreements are much\nlonger. The new USMCA agreement, or \u201cnew NAFTA\u201d, between the US, Mexico and\nCanada, runs to 1,809 pages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both Washington and Beijing\nwanted a face saving agreement allowing them to step back from immediate\nescalation. Due to Trump\u2019s pig headed poker-style brinkmanship, an escalation\nwas scheduled to kick in on 15 December, with the US extending tariffs to an\nadditional $160 billion of goods, or almost everything it buys from China.\nTaxing these goods \u2013 such as cell phones and laptops, keyboards, computer\nmonitors, headphones and speakers \u2013 would have \u201churt both sides\u201d as even\nTrump\u2019s advisors admitted, because consumers would have been affected to a much\ngreater extent than previously. And this, just days before Christmas!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US side were therefore as\nanxious as their Chinese counterparts to find a way to disarm this bomb, which\nwould have inflicted pain of a different kind on the US in an election year. It\nalso threatened to be the \u201cstraw that broke the camel\u2019s back\u201d for the global\neconomy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Like two weary boxers, both sides\nwere increasingly desperate for the bell to ring, so they could withdraw to\ntheir corners. But it is only a question of when, and over which issues, the\nfighting resumes. As the past two years demonstrate, neither side is likely to\nemerge as winner. The weakening of both regimes and capitalist classes is more\nlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Scaled down demands<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nTo achieve the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal\n(few people believe there will be a \u2018phase two\u2019) both the US and Chinese\nregimes have dramatically scaled down their demands. Early last year, Trump\ninsisted there would be a \u201cgood deal or no deal\u201d. This proved to be an\nimpossible goal. The \u2018phase one\u2019 deal comes nowhere close to the exaggerated\nclaims of Trump and his trade officials that they would settle for nothing less\nthan a complete and verifiable restructuring of China\u2019s economy in line with US\ndemands \u2013 to eliminate China\u2019s state capitalist model.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the Chinese side, the deal\nis an embarrassing climb down from last year\u2019s strident rhetoric to \u201cfight to\nthe end\u201d. More so because Beijing has for months been churning out anti-US\npropaganda, blaming it for fomenting the Hong Kong protests, encouraging \u201cseparatism\u201d\nin Xinjiang, and generally interfering in China\u2019s internal affairs, only to\nreward the offending government with a cheque for $200 billion to be spent on\nUS imports!<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Chinese regime\u2019s presentation\nof the deal is especially revealing, showing a degree of agitation and\nnervousness completely at odds with Xi Jinping\u2019s \u2018strongman\u2019 image. Xi refused\nto meet Trump for an official signing ceremony, dumping this responsibility on\nhis Vice Premier Liu He, thus clearly wanting to put some distance between\nhimself and a document that is very likely to be panned as an \u201cunequal treaty\u201d and\nan American victory by netizens in China. China\u2019s state media has been unusually\ndefensive and restrictive with its coverage of the deal. The Chinese\ntranslation of the document was not available until the day of the signing\nceremony (the English version was ready weeks earlier) and there was a delay of\neight hours after the signing ceremony in Washington before the Chinese\ngovernment posted any official comment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The normally bombastic Global\nTimes (a government mouthpiece), which in December insisted the rolling back\nof all<\/em> US tariffs was the bottom line for reaching a phase one\nagreement, ran an editorial after the deal was signed admonishing its readers\nthat debating \u201cabout who had lost or gained is shallow.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\u201cWe urge individuals and forces\nto exercise some restraint in their nit-picking of the agreement and\nbad-mouthing future trade negotiations,\u201d it wrote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From the above facts it is clear\nthat Xi\u2019s regime felt enormous pressure to sign the deal and stave off further\ntariff increases, given a banking sector crisis which is beginning to flash red\nwarning lights, an accelerating slump in investment and consumption, and fear\nof significant social unrest. The regime fears the effects on mass\nconsciousness if it is seen as weak or as having capitulated to US pressure, especially\nas this comes after a number of serious political setbacks \u2013 not least the mass\nrejection of the Chinese regime in Hong Kong and Taiwan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The process of de-globalisation\nand especially the de-coupling of the US and Chinese economies, an unpicking\nand rerouting of supply chains, will not be arrested by this agreement. As the\nEconomist magazine noted in an editorial: \u201cA partial dismantling of their bonds\nis under way. In the 2020s the world will discover just how far this decoupling\nwill go\u2026\u201d (The superpower split: Don\u2019t be fooled by the trade deal between\nAmerica and China, The Economist, January 2, 2020).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While it\u2019s not possible to \u201cput\nthe omelette back in the egg\u201d in terms of a complete reversal of global\neconomic integration, it\u2019s clear the de-coupling of the US and Chinese\neconomies, and the wider process of de-globalisation, are already underway,\nwith sharp falls in investment and corporate takeovers, falling trade (the US\nis now China\u2019s third largest trade partner from number two in 2018) and a\nsignificant exodus from China to Vietnam, India, Southeast Asia and Mexico, of\ncompanies that export to the US market. This process \u2013 a redrawing of global\nproduction chains \u2013 could still accelerate despite the \u2018phase one\u2019 deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Infinity war<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe conflict between the two\nbiggest economies and imperialist powers is an \u2018infinity war\u2019 which will\ncontinue with inevitable ebbs and flows as the two regimes spar for global\ndominance. Even as the US and China signed the agreement in the White House, US\ngovernment departments were preparing new measures against Chinese telecom\ngiant Huawei, which has been in the cross hairs of the US military and national\nsecurity establishment in particular because of its dominant role in 5G\ntechnology, the next generation of wireless networks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US is stepping up pressure on\ngovernments in the UK and Germany to ban Huawei from their 5G infrastructure,\nwhile expanding the list of Chinese companies \u2013 already over 100 \u2013 on a\ngovernment blacklist that cuts off their access to US tech components such as\nsemi-conductors. The contradictions of this, at the same time as the US insists\nthat China spend $80 billion more on manufactured goods, a big part of which\nwould need to be tech products, are glaring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Meanwhile, in Vancouver, a three\nway struggle between China, Canada and the US is reaching a critical phase as\nHuawei\u2019s billionaire heiress and Chief Financial Officer, Meng Wanzhou, goes on\ntrial this week over fraud and sanctions-busting charges that could see her\nextradited to the US to face a possible 30-year jail sentence. The judicial\nkidnapping of Meng, which led the Chinese dictatorship to reply in kind with\nthe imprisonment of two Canadian citizens, is an important battleground in the\ntech war between US and Chinese imperialism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Further trouble is brewing in the\nUS-China relationship over Taiwan, Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the Iran crisis,\nheightened military activity by both sides in the South China Sea, and the\ngrowing trend towards financial protectionism (banning foreign investment on\n\u2018national security\u2019 grounds). A pause in the US-China tariff war may also open\nthe way for new trade conflicts pitting the Trump administration against\nEurope, Japan and others. In two rounds, in 2018 and again last year, Trump has\nslapped tariffs on aluminium and steel from the EU, and $7.5 billion of other\nproducts in connection with a WTO ruling in favour of the US over European\nsubsidies to aircraft maker Airbus. Trump is now also threatening tariffs\nagainst Italy and Britain over plans to tax digital companies such as Google\nand Facebook. The French government caved in to Trump\u2019s threats over a similar\ntax proposal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The EU and other trading powers,\nwhile relieved the US and China appear to be stepping back from further\nescalation, are crying foul that the new agreement amounts to \u201cmanaged trade\u201d\nin violation of the principles of \u201cfree trade\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This is another nail in the\ncoffin of the WTO, which has already been paralysed by Trump\u2019s decision last\nyear to block the appointment of judges for the WTO\u2019s dispute settlements\nsystem. This arbitration system, which has been credited with holding trade\nconflicts in check, is now broken. Under Trump, the US government has\ndecisively abandoned multilateralism in favour of a bilateral strategy to reach\ntrade agreements on a state-to-state basis. As the biggest economy this gives\nthe US an advantage, until new crises and shocks change the balance of power,\nwhile the wider impact is a more fragmented and unstable global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The \u2018phase one\u2019 trade agreement\nis a deal between representatives of a capitalist system in turmoil and\ndecline. Neither side is likely to draw any lasting gains and neither will we.\nThe interests of workers and the poor can only be met by building a mass\nsocialist alternative in the US, China and globally, to sweep away this system\nand to build a society based on democratic planning and international\nsolidarity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Confrontation between the two biggest powers set to escalate<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":22324,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148,124],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-22318","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international","9":"category-news"},"yoast_head":"\n
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