{"id":30118,"date":"2021-07-13T22:16:21","date_gmt":"2021-07-13T14:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=30118"},"modified":"2021-07-14T17:42:16","modified_gmt":"2021-07-14T09:42:16","slug":"will-there-be-a-taiwan-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2021\/07\/13\/30118\/","title":{"rendered":"Will there be a Taiwan war?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Taiwan finds itself at the center of escalation in the US-China Cold War. The new Cold War is not a temporary phase in global relations \u2013 Biden\u2019s anti-China policies aim to \u201cwin the 21st Century\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo<\/p>\n

In April, The Economist magazine featured Taiwan on its cover as \u201cthe most dangerous place on earth\u201d. The headline provoked heated discussion. How could Taiwan be bracketed together with North Korea, Afghanistan or Gaza? But in recent years, and especially in the months since Joe Biden\u2019s administration took office, pushing the Indo-Pacific and the strategic struggle with China to the top of its priorities, tensions across the Taiwan Strait have risen to an unprecedented level.<\/p>\n

In the epoch-making 21st Century conflict between US and Chinese imperialism, Taiwan is pivotal for economic, political and geostrategic reasons. For the CCP-state (China\u2019s misnamed and thoroughly non-communist dictatorship), Taiwan is a potent nationalist symbol, without the acquisition of which China\u2019s \u201cgreat national rejuvenation\u201d will remain unfulfilled. But this symbolic importance alone does not explain the CCP\u2019s Taiwan policy.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s red lines<\/strong><\/p>\n

The CCP regime cannot allow Taiwan to be formally \u201cseparated\u201d and annexed to the Western US-led camp in the developing Cold War conflict. Therefore, a formal Taiwanese declaration of independence, a push for this by the US\u2008and other major powers, or the stationing of US military forces on the island, are all \u2018red lines\u2019 that if breached would represent a historic defeat for the Chinese regime and threaten to end its rule. This is why Beijing is not just turning up the wolf warrior rhetoric, but also increasing its air and naval activity around Taiwan (a record 380 PLA\u2008Air Force incursions into Taiwan\u2019s airspace in 2020, and a further increase this year). A parallel escalation is taking place by both sides in the disputed waters of the South\u2008China Sea, which is closely related to the Taiwan conflict. Beijing\u2019s actions are to warn Taipei and Washington not to challenge its \u2018red lines\u2019, as well as providing nationalistic background music for Xi Jinping\u2019s internal power struggles, to cement his lifetime rule over the CCP-state.<\/p>\n

For the US side, the reverse applies: If China was to \u201creunify\u201d with Taiwan, bringing it firmly into its camp under PLA control, this would be a historic defeat for US imperialism. Militarily, control of Taiwan would allow China to dominate East Asia and the Western Pacific. The US would be decisively weakened, its strategic alliances with regional powers such as Japan, South Korea, India and Australia would begin to unravel. American credibility as the main superpower in Asia (since 1945) would be dealt an irreversible blow.<\/p>\n

Parallels with Suez<\/strong><\/p>\n

Commentators have drawn parallels with the 1956 Suez Crisis, when Egypt defeated the attempt of Britain, France and Israel to seize control of the Suez Canal after it was nationalised by radical Pan-Arabist president Gamal Abdel Nasser. Suez marked the end of British and European imperialism as global powers. The US stayed out of the Suez fiasco, allowing its allies to be humiliated. If the US failed, or refused, to prevent a PLA takeover of Taiwan, this would mark a historic turning point: America\u2019s \u2018Suez moment\u2019. But such an outcome in today\u2019s conditions would be worse for Western capitalism. As The Economist explained quoting Matt Pottinger, Trump\u2019s head of Asia policy, when Britain stumbled at Suez the US had already taken its place as the leader of the Western world. Today, \u201cThere\u2019s not another United States waiting in the wings.\u201d<\/p>\n

Clearly, none of the major powers involved in today\u2019s Cold War view the \u2018Taiwan question\u2019 from the standpoint of the wellbeing, security, or democratic rights of its people. The 23m Taiwanese have the misfortune to have become a vital chess piece in the contest over who will wield ultimate power and control in the Indo-Pacific region. In Taiwan, the full significance of this geopolitical alignment of forces is only gradually being understood. Mass consciousness is complicated by the role of the bourgeois leaders of Taiwan nationalism (the governing pan-greens) who exploit the deep seated hostility towards the CCP dictatorship to promote a pro-US agenda and to win votes.<\/p>\n

Among the grassroots base of Taiwan nationalism, especially the younger generation who overwhelmingly back independence and see it as a guarantee of democratic rights, there is a feeling the question can be decided within Taiwan itself, or through diplomacy and allying with the US. This despite the US\u2008track record of backing 75 percent of the world\u2019s dictatorships and betraying countless promises of support (to the Kurds, women in Afghanistan, the Tibetan Khampa guerillas) when Washington\u2019s geopolitical interests changed. For US imperialism, as its support for Chiang Kai-shek\u2019s regime showed, there would be no moral qualms about supporting a dictatorship to rule Taiwan in future providing it was \u201cone of ours\u201d.<\/p>\n

As a general principle the idea that Taiwan \u2013 its people \u2013 should decide the island\u2019s future is of course very reasonable. But this will not happen on the basis of capitalism and imperialism. Taiwan\u2019s fate, unfortunately, will be decided by Beijing and Washington, by their struggle to \u201cwin the 21st Century\u201d, which is being waged over the heads of the Taiwanese people. Only the success of the international socialist revolution to end capitalism and imperialism can give the masses of Taiwan and other countries control over their own futures.<\/p>\n

\u201cStrategic ambiguity\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both American and Chinese capitalism want to control the Taiwan chess piece. More correctly, they must at all costs prevent the other side capturing control. For this reason, a geostrategic stalemate has been acceptable to both sides up until now. This is the origin of the \u2018One-China policy\u2019, which the US still formally upholds, under which Taiwan is not recognised as an independent state. Adhering to \u2018One-China\u2019, in accordance with diplomatic protocols agreed 50 years ago by US president Richard Nixon and China\u2019s leader Mao Zedong, was the price US\u2008imperialism was prepared to pay to recruit China to its side in the original Cold War against the USSR. As part of that shift in world relations, Taiwan was unceremoniously booted out of the United Nations in 1971.<\/p>\n

The US policy of \u2018strategic ambiguity\u2019 towards Taiwan originated at the same time. The US undertakes to \u2018protect\u2019 (sell arms to) Taiwan, but does not explicitly say it will come to the island\u2019s defence in the event of a Chinese attack. Today the situation is very different. Both sides have massively raised tensions over Taiwan especially since Biden came to power. Compared to Trump\u2019s erratic policies, Biden is pursuing a more coordinated, planned and \u2013 so far at least \u2013 diplomatically sophisticated strategy to squeeze China (international alliances and \u201cAmerica is back at the table\u201d). Xi\u2019s regime has cranked up its nationalistic wolf warrior foreign policy and domestic repression in response.<\/p>\n

The US fears that China\u2019s growing military capacity will eventually allow it to forcibly seize Taiwan. China\u2019s navy is now bigger than America\u2019s (360 vessels versus 297). China would have the advantage of fighting much closer to home. An intense debate is taking place in US military and foreign policy circles over whether \u2018strategic ambiguity\u2019 should now be abandoned in favour of an explicit US\u2008guarantee to intervene militarily on Taiwan\u2019s side. Contrary voices warn this could itself be the spark that prompts Xi\u2019s regime to launch an invasion.<\/p>\n

Instead of jettisoning \u2018strategic ambiguity\u2019 outright, Biden and his collection of born-again US allies have changed the messaging, to suggest an ever-so-slight change of posture as a warning to Xi. At the June G7 summit in England, and when Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga met Biden two months earlier, the official communiqu\u00e9s mentioned the \u201cimportance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait\u201d. Never before has Taiwan been mentioned at the forums of Western leaders. This was seen as a provocation by Beijing, which was the intention. More recently, Japan\u2019s deputy PM warned that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose an \u201cexistential threat\u201d to Japan, clearly implying the country would go to war to defend Taiwan. Australian politicians including defence minister Peter Dutton have made similar warnings in recent months.<\/p>\n

In July, Biden\u2019s Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell delivered a widely reported speech reiterating the US line, \u201cwe do not support Taiwan independence\u201d. This of course is nothing new, it has been US policy since Nixon-Mao. But the most important part of Campbell\u2019s speech was a warning to the Chinese regime that an attack on Taiwan would be \u201ccatastrophic\u201d. Campbell said there was \u201ca clear sense\u201d the CCP is quietly assessing the global response to the crackdown in Hong Kong to gauge how the world might react if it should attempt a similar move against Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Campbell\u2019s speech implicitly acknowledged the US is powerless to stop the political strangulation of Hong Kong, but warned the CCP not to expect similar latitude in the case of Taiwan. A chicken race dynamic is unfolding with both sides resorting to more extreme behaviour in order to deter the other. But as neither can afford to lose face this simply fuels further escalation.<\/p>\n

Will Xi Jinping attack?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

So how great is the danger of a CCP attack on Taiwan? While the rhetoric has hardened significantly (the word \u201cpeaceful\u201d has now been officially deleted from the CCP\u2019s \u201creunification\u201d mantra), Xi Jinping would not risk a war unless he is completely confident he would win. Militarily and geographically a massive force would be needed to invade Taiwan due to its rocky coastline and unpredictable weather patterns. For a dictatorial regime especially, there is no bigger moment of danger than war (other than revolution), and the repercussions of defeat as the examples of Russia 1904-5, Argentina 1982, and many others show. A military debacle, being forced to abort an invasion, suffering heavy losses \u2013 these things could trigger a governmental crisis, probably the fall of Xi Jinping, and possibly the collapse of the CCP regime.<\/p>\n

The other crucial question is how would the CCP rule Taiwan? Given the overwhelming opposition of the masses in Taiwan to unification and to the CCP, this would require an enormous military occupation and police state. Even if this succeeded it would pose the danger of imperial overreach for Beijing, with failures and mass resistance in Taiwan creating a feedback loop spreading instability and unrest back into China. There was a certain logic to the \u201cone country, two systems\u201d arrangement offered to Taiwan for many years, with Hong Kong held up as a possible model. This envisaged Beijing ruling Taiwan through a pro-CCP Kuomintang or similar \u2018comprador\u2019 administration, not unlike the early years of Hong Kong\u2019s post-97 handover. But this option, never very likely, has been destroyed by Xi Jinping\u2019s bloody-minded subjugation of Hong Kong. \u201cOne country, two systems,\u201d arouses mass revulsion in Taiwan. Even the Kuomintang has come out against it.<\/p>\n

Revolutionary crisis<\/strong><\/p>\n

In this way, Xi Jinping\u2019s hardline strategy towards Hong Kong has painted his regime into a corner over Taiwan. The CCP cannot of course let go of the goal of \u201creunification\u201d but now this can only realistically be achieved by war. As part of its Cold War mobilisation, the US military has issued numerous warnings that Beijing could launch a Taiwan invasion in six years, \u201cor closer than most people think\u201d, as Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated earlier this year.<\/p>\n

At this stage, these predictions seem exaggerated. But other scenarios could arise if the current balance of power shifts decisively in one direction or the other. For example, in the event of an acute crisis in China, a revolutionary crisis, Xi Jinping or his successor could be panicked into launching a military attack as a political diversion \u2013 a case of \u201cWag the Dog\u201d with Chinese characteristics. On the other hand, a future deep political crisis or economic collapse in the United States could force a withdrawal of US military power from the Indo-Pacific, creating a power vacuum that, based on today\u2019s constellation of forces, only China would be poised to fill. Under this scenario, Taiwan and its weak and unstable bourgeois democracy could face a Czechoslovak outcome \u2013 to be \u2018traded\u2019 as part of a wider imperialist accord.<\/p>\n

Again, these variants of perspectives show that Taiwan\u2019s fate will not be decided primarily by its own internal dynamics. The workers\u2019 movement and the youth who increasingly want independence need to understand that their struggles must as a matter of urgency link up with workers and youth in\u2008China, the US, and globally. Some on the left and a great many in the radical nationalist milieu fail to make this connection and tend to view world relations, China, the US-China Cold War, as interesting external developments without great relevance to Taiwanese politics. But on a capitalist basis Taiwan is unlikely to ever achieve independence notwithstanding the clear wishes of a majority of its people.<\/p>\n

Kurt Campbell has just reminded everyone that Taiwan independence is opposed not by one, but both imperialist superpowers. Taiwan\u2019s destiny under capitalism is to be a prisoner of the imperialist Cold War: stateless, highly militarized and under the shadow of a possible \u2018hot\u2019 war. Socialists fight to win the workers\u2019 movement to a socialist program to take power and abolish Taiwan capitalism, fully upholding the right to self-determination of Taiwan\u2019s people, as part of a wider struggle against capitalism and imperialism throughout Asia and globally.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Taiwan finds itself at the center of escalation in the US-China Cold War.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":30119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[124,151],"tags":[207,37086,915],"class_list":{"0":"post-30118","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-taiwan","9":"tag-ccp","10":"tag-taiwan-war","11":"tag-xi-jinping"},"yoast_head":"\nWill there be a Taiwan war? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The new Cold War is not a temporary phase in global relations \u2013 Biden\u2019s anti-China policies aim to \u201cwin the 21st Century\u201d.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2021\/07\/13\/30118\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will there be a Taiwan war? 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