{"id":34097,"date":"2023-01-30T18:31:07","date_gmt":"2023-01-30T10:31:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=34097"},"modified":"2023-02-11T16:53:43","modified_gmt":"2023-02-11T08:53:43","slug":"a-road-map-for-the-us-china-cold-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/01\/30\/34097\/","title":{"rendered":"A road map for the US-China Cold War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Book review: Danger Zone \u2013 The Coming Conflict with China<\/em> by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley offers a very scary road map for US victory in the new imperialist Cold War<\/strong><\/p>\n

Adam N Lee, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

Brands and Beckley, specialists in geopolitical history, present their book Danger Zone as \u201ca contrarian take\u201d on China\u2019s global power and the new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. China is already in decline, they argue, and has therefore fallen into \u201cthe peaking power trap\u201d. Rather than breathing a sigh of relief, they insist this makes China an even more dangerous threat to US interests. \u201cFor more than a decade, China has been concealing a serious economic slowdown that existentially threatens the ruling regime\u201d, they say. We can agree on this point, while much of the book is extremely disagreeable.<\/p>\n

Socialists and chinaworker.info have consistently made the case, certainly since the Xi Jinping era began, that the economic foundations of the Chinese dictatorship are significantly weaker than claimed.<\/p>\n

On China\u2019s demographic crisis the book points out, \u201cFrom 2020 to 2035, China will lose roughly 70 million working-age adults and gain 130 million senior citizens. That\u2019s a France-sized population of young workers, consumers, and taxpayers gone \u2013 and a Japan-sized population of elderly pensioners gained \u2013 in just fifteen years\u201d.<\/p>\n

Brands and Beckley cite the examples of Imperial Germany in 1914 and Japan in 1941 \u2013 powers that had similarly begun to decline. This is of course an oversimplified and one-sided view of what caused WW1 and WW2. But the book throughout is unabashedly one-sided. These historical comparisons are offered to convey the idea that Beijing\u2019s current trajectory impels it to \u201cstart\u201d a war.<\/p>\n

In reality, despite Xi Jinping\u2019s nationalistic wolf warrior-style diplomacy, his dictatorship\u2019s primary concern is keeping control of China\u2019s 1.4 billion people. For Brands and Beckley, rather than ease off the pressure, China\u2019s current unmistakeable crisis means the US must further escalate its Cold War strategy.<\/p>\n

\u201cSplit the Internet\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

The authors argue the decade of the 2020s is the period of most acute US-China rivalry, including the risk of war. The book opens with a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2025, including a surprise attack on the US Pacific Fleet, timed to coincide with a bitterly contested power transition following the next US presidential election. This decade is therefore the \u201cdanger zone\u201d of the book\u2019s title.<\/p>\n

The danger they are sounding is not to avoid war, but for US\u2008imperialism to take urgent steps to prepare and insure it comes out on top. The main theme of the book is summed up in the following passage: \u201cAmericans urgently need to start seeing the Sino-American rivalry less as a 100-year marathon and more a blistering, decade-long sprint. That\u2019s because China will be a falling power far sooner than most people think.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a book written for the US political elite \u2013 these are the \u201cAmericans\u201d the authors talk about. Based on the actual policy of the last two to three years, we see that much of what Brands and Beckley advocate already corresponds to mainstream opinion within the US\u2008ruling class and the policies of the Biden administration.<\/p>\n

What strategy do they advocate? The authors support big increases in US and Western military spending, for a strategic focus on Taiwan as the key to controlling East Asia, and \u201cto reestablish a free-world economic bloc, this time aimed at China\u201d. Rather than wholesale deglobalization they argue for \u201ca strategic, multilateral decoupling in the technologies and resources that matter most.\u201d<\/p>\n

In October, the Biden administration announced unprecedented export controls that will \u2013 if fully enforced \u2013 cut China off from the world\u2019s most advanced semiconductors. This is a potentially crippling blow to the Chinese economy. The book, published two months before this policy came into effect, anticipates and calls for just this type of aggressive technological warfare. It floats the idea that the US and its allies could \u201cpreemptively split the Internet\u201d creating a digital bloc that would exclude China and other authoritarian regimes.<\/p>\n

Brands and Beckley want the US\u2008Cold War strategy to \u201cprioritize ruthlessly\u201d. The tech war alongside Taiwan are seen as top priorities. While Washington shouldn\u2019t ignore other areas, it \u201cmust focus on issues where the dangers are acute and the consequences of failure would be felt for decades\u201d. The key for the authors is what the Pentagon has identified as \u201ccritical technologies\u201d \u2013 which of course directly links to Taiwan, where 90 percent of the world\u2019s most advanced semiconductors are made.<\/p>\n

Belt and Road<\/strong><\/p>\n

Accordingly, on China\u2019s grandiose infrastructure plan, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the authors take a more relaxed view than many other Western commentators. The book cautions the US\u2008government not to \u201ccounter every Chinese infrastructure project around the world\u201d, which anyway would cost too much. Last year, the G7 (bloc of the richest capitalist economies) launched an alternative to China\u2019s BRI, pledging US$600 billion for infrastructure projects in the neo-colonial world. While the authors don\u2019t mention this, and so far the G7 initiative has achieved very little, clearly they think this is not the right direction to take.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf Beijing wants to spend lavishly on white elephant infrastructure projects in some of the roughest neighborhoods in the world… so be it,\u201d they reason. In reality, the Chinese regime has been cutting back significantly on the BRI since 2018. Economically it has become more of an albatross than a symbol of China\u2019s global power. This is an example of imperial overreach by Xi Jinping\u2019s dictatorship which socialists and chinaworker.info predicted when the BRI\u2008was officially launched in 2013.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore than half of China\u2019s Belt and Road partners have credit ratings below investment grade. The Chinese government itself has estimated it will lose 80 percent of the value of its investments in South Asia, 50 percent in Southeast Asia, and 30 percent in\u2008Central Asia,\u201d the book explains.<\/p>\n

There are many fallacious ideas in the book. It is taken as self-evident that China is the power that threatens, while the US is\u2008playing defence. There is also the repeated assertion that the US stands for democracy. But Brands and Beckley partly refute this nonsense themselves. They say the US must be pragmatic and cooperate with \u201cimperfect democracies and even a few friendly non-democracies\u201d. Of course, we know this has always been a hallmark of US imperialism\u2019s foreign policy. Biden\u2019s battle against \u201cautocracy\u201d offers US\u2008military and economic support to Erdogan, El Sisi, Prayut and countless other autocratic rulers.<\/p>\n

Socialists understand the crucial difference of basic democratic rights and the existence of independent workers\u2019 organisations in bourgeois democracies such as the US, compared to dictatorships where these rights don\u2019t exist. That makes workers\u2019 struggle much more difficult and dangerous. But we also understand that neither of the camps in the new Cold War defend workers\u2019 rights beyond occasional empty words. Neither Washington or Beijing want workers to organise and fight. In 2022, Biden\u2019s government outlawed a national strike by rail workers \u2013 how very \u201cChinese\u201d!<\/p>\n

It is on Taiwan that the authors are the most hawkish. They advocate a bigger and faster military build-up by the US and its allies to forestall a Chinese invasion. Their timescale for possible war is a matter of years not decades. Again, the authors base this on an assessment that the Chinese regime is getting weaker, meaning an attack could be launched out of desperation. This view is not particularly contrarian. Secretary of State Blinken claimed last year that China wants to take over Taiwan on a \u201cmuch faster timeline\u201d than previously thought. Admiral Philip Davidson, former head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, was widely quoted predicting a Chinese invasion by 2027.<\/p>\n

This scenario is not completely excluded. But behind Xi Jinping\u2019s Taiwan bluster, there are important indications Beijing actually wants to avoid or postpone this conflict. Its main concern is to preserve the current precarious status quo and avoid any action that could signal its permanent \u201closs\u201d of Taiwan, such as a formal proclamation of Taiwanese independence. Again, the book presents a very one-sided (pro-US) perspective that evades the very real danger that the US itself provokes, whether intentionally or not, a Chinese attack by crossing one or more of Beijing\u2019s red lines. One such might be a decision to base US\u2008troops on the island, something the authors favour.<\/p>\n

Saving Taiwan?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taiwan is critical to US\u2008global power projection, because it is \u201cthe center of gravity in East Asia\u201d. Should the Chinese regime win a Taiwan war it would gain \u201can unsinkable aircraft carrier\u201d allowing it to \u201cproject power into the Pacific, blockade Japan and the Philippines, and fracture US\u2008alliances in East Asia.\u201d Here they let slip that for both Cold War camps the conflict has nothing to do with the wishes of the Taiwanese people or their right to self-determination.<\/p>\n

In a section misnamed \u201csaving Taiwan\u201d they say the US\u2008and Taiwan governments aren\u2019t moving fast enough to strengthen militarily, although they also point out the Pentagon has put Taiwan \u201cat the center of US defense strategy\u201d. They support making Taiwan a US\u2008treaty ally, through a security agreement \u2013 a move that in itself could trigger war. But this would not be enough they argue, unless backed up by a major US\u2008militarisation drive in the Taiwan Strait by stationing missiles, drones, and other weapons on \u201callied territory near the strait\u201d.<\/p>\n

Brands and Beckley have no answers other than to accelerate an already dangerous Cold War conflict. Socialists explain that both the US and Chinese capitalist regimes are responsible for placing the entire planet in the \u201cdanger zone\u201d of a possible worldwide military conflagration. This book offers a peephole into the strategic deliberations of the class enemy. The conclusions are terrifying and underline why it is urgent to build an international socialist alternative to capitalism and imperialism.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Book review: Danger Zone \u2013 The Coming Conflict with China by Hal Brands and Michael Beckley offers a very scary road map for US victory in the new imperialist Cold War Adam N Lee, chinaworker.info Brands and Beckley, specialists in geopolitical history, present their book Danger Zone as \u201ca contrarian take\u201d on China\u2019s global power […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":34098,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,404,148,408],"tags":[174,2941,216,2626],"class_list":{"0":"post-34097","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-features","9":"category-international","10":"category-reviews","11":"tag-china-2","12":"tag-cold-war","13":"tag-imperialism","14":"tag-us"},"yoast_head":"\nA road map for the US-China Cold War - 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