{"id":34336,"date":"2023-03-08T03:46:23","date_gmt":"2023-03-07T19:46:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=34336"},"modified":"2023-03-09T03:45:37","modified_gmt":"2023-03-08T19:45:37","slug":"taiwan-the-next-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/03\/08\/34336\/","title":{"rendered":"Taiwan: The next Ukraine?<\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Will China invade Taiwan?<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the US-China inter-imperialist conflict escalates, Taiwan is its most dangerous flashpoint. A Taiwan war could be even more catastrophic than the war in Ukraine, drawing in the US, Japan, Australia, several NATO armies, and possibly India, against China. It has long been a tenet of China\u2019s so-called Communist dictatorship (CCP) to \u201creunify\u201d Taiwan with mainland China. The restoration of capitalism by the CCP has forced it to replace empty \u201csocialist\u201d rhetoric with increasingly strident nationalism.<\/p>\n

Xi Jinping especially relies on militarism, nationalism and threats to take control of Taiwan as a way to legitimize his dictatorship. Chinese air force incursions over Taiwan\u2019s air defence identification zone reached a new record in 2022 (1,727 planes compared to 960 in 2021). But Xi\u2019s ultra-repressive rule in China and crushing of limited democratic rights in Hong Kong has further repelled the people of Taiwan, making the CCP\u2019s hand weaker in reality. A military attack would be very risky for Xi. If it failed, the dictatorship could collapse. Socialists don\u2019t underestimate the danger of a Taiwan war, but see behind the rhetoric of both sides. At this stage, the real balance of forces makes the Chinese side more cautious.<\/p>\n

One China policy<\/strong><\/p>\n

For 40 years, US-China relations have been anchored on Washington\u2019s One China Policy. This dates from 1979, when president Jimmy Carter established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing. The US acknowledged China’s position that there is only one Chinese government. This was a concession to the CCP because US companies wanted to force open its economy. Taiwan was downgraded, but the US position has been deliberately vague, to maintain \u201cunofficial ties\u201d with Taiwan.  Now this agreement is unravelling.<\/p>\n

The US side is expanding its \u201cunofficial\u201d Taiwan ties and militarising the island. Some politicians in the US openly call for scrapping the One China Policy. It is the US side that is now raising the stakes in this conflict. Biden\u2019s government wants to increase pressure on Xi Jinping and project the message that \u201cAmerica is back\u201d in the Indo-Pacific.<\/p>\n

The latest US\u2008military spending bill (National Defense Authorization Act) provides $10bn for weapons to Taiwan, the first time the US government will finance weapons for the island. Previously Taiwan paid for its weapons after receiving US government approval. November\u2019s narrow victory of the Republicans who took control of the US\u2008House of Representatives could lead to an even tougher pro-Taiwan, anti-China line.<\/p>\n

Currently, the extreme weakness of the Chinese economy which is fuelling mass unrest, pre-occupies Xi Jinping. Rather than respond aggressively to what are obviously provocative US moves, Xi has adopted a softer, evasive line. But this unstable interlude can erupt in a new and sharp escalation at any moment.<\/p>\n

Microchips: \u201cThe new oil\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Taiwan is sometimes described as the \u201cSaudi Arabia of Chips\u201d because of its overwhelming share \u2013 around 65% \u2013 of the global market for microchips. The global economy is dependent on microchips as the \u201cbrains\u201d of modern electronics, used in communications, planes, cars, healthcare, as well as computers. They play a decisive role in modern warfare, as shown in Ukraine. Taiwan\u2019s TSMC has around 55% of the global market for contract chip fabrication, and 90% of the most advanced chips. Credible leaks reveal the US military has contingency plans to destroy TSMC\u2019s factories in Taiwan and evacuate its engineers in the event of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan.<\/p>\n

Good and bad nationalism? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Socialists distinguish between the chauvinistic nationalism of imperialist countries and nationalism where national rights are oppressed such as in Scotland, Ukraine and Tibet. In Taiwan, the striving for independence has a socially progressive content. That doesn\u2019t mean the Taiwan nationalists \u2013 dominated by pro-capitalist ideas \u2013 play a progressive role. Socialists fight against all national, linguistic and religious oppression and for the right of self-determination. But we do this as international socialists and oppose the narrow nationalism of the bourgeois nationalists, which usually makes them the \u201ctail\u201d of one or other imperialist power. Socialism and working class unity across borders is the way to end oppression.<\/p>\n

The working class and democratic rights <\/strong><\/p>\n

Taiwan has the fourth longest working hours in the world. Workers\u2019 rights have been eroded as part of the global race to the bottom, a key feature of capitalist globalisation. In 1995, the share of Taiwan\u2019s GDP going to wages was 50%, but this has fallen to 43% today, while the share of GDP going to capital jumped from 40 to 52%. There are many anti-union restrictions inherited from the era of the Kuomintang (KMT) dictatorship, 1945-96. Governments of both the \u201cpro-democracy\u201d DPP and the KMT have imposed new constraints on workers\u2019 rights since the transition to \u201cdemocracy\u201d. Trade union density has fallen from 33% in 1996 to 28.3% in 2018.<\/p>\n

The struggle for democratic rights is inseparable from workers\u2019 struggle and democratic organisation. Socialists warn that the capitalists\u2019 speeches extolling Taiwan\u2019s capitalist system as a \u201cbeacon of democracy\u201d, as opposed to China\u2019s openly dictatorial capitalism, are a smokescreen to hide raw capitalist exploitation. Both US\u2008and Taiwan capitalists have invested heavily in China over 30 years precisely because it bans trade unions and represses workers\u2019 struggles. Workers can never trust the capitalists to safeguard democratic rights, only rely on mass struggle and organisation, to end capitalism.<\/p>\n

US imperialism and \u201cdemocratic values\u201d\u2008<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nPictured above is Taiwan\u2019s (and previously China\u2019s) dictator Chiang Kai-shek hosting US president Dwight D. Eisenhower on his state visit to Taiwan in 1960. The US president hailed Chiang\u2019s KMT regime for standing against Mao Zedong\u2019s \u201ctyranny\u201d, saying his talks with Chiang were \u201ca real source of strength in our development in free world security\u201d. This image encapsulates the hypocrisy of US imperialism\u2019s claims to defend \u201cdemocracy\u201d and \u201chuman rights\u201d around the world. Chiang was an infamously bloodthirsty ruler.<\/p>\n

That was not an issue for Washington because its priority \u00ad\u2013 as today with Biden \u2013 is geopolitical power and the interests of US capitalism. In February 1947, Chiang\u2019s regime massacred 28,000 Taiwanese protesters. During the KMT\u2008regime\u2019s \u201cWhite Terror\u201d which lasted for four decades, left parties were banned, national minorities were persecuted, and 100,000 people were imprisoned for their political views. Over 1,000 were executed. Today right-wing US politicians speak about defending Taiwan as a \u201cbeacon of democracy\u201d in the Chinese speaking world. Their history shows \u201cdemocracy\u201d has very little to do with it.<\/p>\n

Marxism and the right of self-determination<\/strong><\/p>\n

Supporters of Chinese nationalism say Taiwan is \u201cnot a nation\u201d. They deny the CCP\u2019s claims on Taiwan are imperialist, because they say Taiwan is historically and ethnically part of China. Most Taiwanese who support independence do so because they don\u2019t want to be ruled by a dictatorship. They believe independence is their right. But there are also right-wing Taiwan nationalists who use racist and Cold War-influenced arguments to claim that Taiwanese have different \u201cvalues\u201d to mainland people, reducing issues like democracy and dictatorship to \u201ccultural differences\u201d.<\/p>\n

The US-China conflict makes the Taiwan national question even more polarised and complicated. Both US and Chinese capitalism see Taiwan as a pawn in a much larger geopolitical chess game to decide who will dominate Asia. As long as capitalism exists the danger of a Taiwan war will never be lifted. Marxists uphold the position of Lenin and Marxism on the national question, for the right of the Taiwanese people to self-determination including the right to independence.<\/p>\n

On the basis of abolishing capitalism and the monarchist dictatorship, the Russian Revolution of 1917 freed the oppressed nations of the former Russian Empire and gave them the right to choose if they wanted to form independent states or join voluntarily in a socialist federation. To build a united working class struggle, which is the only way to defeat capitalism and dictatorship, workers\u2019 organisations must speak and act independently of the capitalist class of their \u201cown\u201d nation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Will China invade Taiwan? As the US-China inter-imperialist conflict escalates, Taiwan is its most dangerous flashpoint. A Taiwan war could be even more catastrophic than the war in Ukraine, drawing in the US, Japan, Australia, several NATO armies, and possibly India, against China. It has long been a tenet of China\u2019s so-called Communist dictatorship (CCP) to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":34293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[124,151],"tags":[207,216,2170,4738],"class_list":{"0":"post-34336","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-taiwan","9":"tag-ccp","10":"tag-imperialism","11":"tag-marxism","12":"tag-tw-en"},"yoast_head":"\nTaiwan: The next Ukraine? - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/03\/08\/34336\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Taiwan: The next Ukraine? - China Worker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Will China invade Taiwan? As the US-China inter-imperialist conflict escalates, Taiwan is its most dangerous flashpoint. 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