{"id":41835,"date":"2023-10-24T05:04:32","date_gmt":"2023-10-23T21:04:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=41835"},"modified":"2023-10-24T05:06:20","modified_gmt":"2023-10-23T21:06:20","slug":"even-1-4-billion-people-probably-cant-fill-chinas-empty-houses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/10\/24\/41835\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cEven 1.4 billion people probably can\u2019t fill China\u2019s empty houses\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

Housing sales, prices, investment and construction are all down in 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dikang,\u00a0chinaworker.info<\/a><\/p>\n

China\u2019s property crisis shows no signs of bottoming out. In 2021, 18 trillion yuan (US$2.46 trillion) worth of property was sold in China, according to economist Hao Hong. But in 2023, to achieve total sales of ten trillion yuan\u00a0(US$1.36 trillion)\u00a0would be \u201clucky\u201d he told CNBC.<\/p>\n

The collapse of history\u2019s biggest ever housing bubble threatens to drag the Chinese economy into many years of stagnation. Acting like a giant brake, the property slump is the major reason that the economy failed to rebound after three years of brutal pandemic controls ended.<\/p>\n

On one side there is chronic oversupply of housing, alongside a demographic crisis. Urbanisation has slowed down. Property companies accounting for 40 percent of the market have now defaulted on their loans. The capitalists overleveraged themselves believing the market could only go upwards. In 2021, the bubble began to burst with the debt crisis at Evergrande. Its boss Hui Ka Yan and several other Evergrande officials have now been arrested. This could presage a government-led dismantling of the company. What effect this would have on the wider economy is not clear.<\/p>\n

Vacant apartments<\/strong><\/p>\n

In a video from an economic forum in Dongguan on 23 September, He Keng, a former deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, suggested that even China\u2019s whole population of 1.4 billion would not be enough to fill all the vacant properties across the country.<\/p>\n

He\u2019s speech was a reference to the staggering scale of over-construction which has occurred. This is because of rampant financial speculation which created a gigantic bubble in the housing market.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people\u2026 That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can\u2019t fill them,\u201d He told the Dongguan audience.<\/p>\n

Previous estimates have ranged from 65 million to 80 million vacant housing units in China. He\u2019s remarks suggest even these numbers are an underestimate.<\/p>\n

Therefore, what is now happening in China is well and truly crazy. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels explained this process 175 years ago: \u201cIn these crises, a great part not only of the existing products, but also of the previously created productive forces, are periodically destroyed. In these crises, there breaks out an epidemic that, in all earlier epochs, would have seemed an absurdity \u2013 the epidemic of over-production\u201d. [Marx and Engels, The Communist Manifesto]<\/p>\n

\u2018Japanification\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xi Jinping\u2019s regime looks paralysed in the face of this crisis. In recent months, CCP authorities at national and provincial levels have announced more than 200 different but piecemeal measures in an attempt to revive the housing market. In September there was a pickup in housing sales of 17.9 percent compared to August, but this still marked a drop of 29.2 percent from September 2022.<\/p>\n

Confidence in the CCP dictatorship\u2019s ability to manage the economy has been shaken throughout society and among the capitalists inside and outside China\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n

Increasingly it looks as if China is trapped in a process of \u2018Japanification\u2019 as we have explained in Socialist magazine. This refers to the \u2018lost decades\u2019 experienced by Japanese capitalism following the collapse of a similar \u2013 but smaller \u2013 property bubble in the early 1990s. Japan, once seen as a \u2018miracle economy\u2019 that was poised to overtake US capitalism, flatlined. Its share of world GDP shrank from 18 percent in 1990 to less than 4 percent today.<\/p>\n

There are differences between Japan and China, and when Marxists describe a process of economic \u2018Japanification\u2019 we do not mean China will replicate exactly the features of Japan\u2019s crisis. For a more detailed explanation, see our article \u2018China\u2019s economy in the grip of Japanification\u2019 from issue 71 of Socialist magazine<\/a>.<\/p>\n

China is different, but\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

A recent Goldman Sachs report (October 2023) says that China\u2019s property collapse actually looks more serious than Japan\u2019s in some aspects. In China\u2019s cities, vacant housing accounts for around 20 percent of the total, which is more than double the 9 percent rate of Japan in 1990. House prices are 20 times household income in China, versus 11 times in Japan in 1990, the report says. Property investment\u2019s share of China\u2019s GDP was also twice as big compared with Japan in 1990. Therefore, \u201cthe direct impact from a housing slump to the real economy would be bigger in China than in Japan,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n

Economists like Hao Hong predict China\u2019s housing slump will last for years or even a decade. Investment bank UBS expects property sales and construction to \u2018stabilise\u2019 at 50-60 percent of the peak reached in 2020-21. The sharp fall in housing construction will cause a chain reaction of more defaults, bankruptcies, job losses, budgetary crises for local governments and risks of contagion to the financial system.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf not handled properly, risks in the housing sector are likely to trigger systemic risks \u2013 which is why prompt steps must be taken to address them,\u201d former vice premier Liu He said in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos.<\/p>\n

But there seem to be few \u201cprompt steps\u201d coming out of Beijing.\u00a0Fears over\u00a0China\u2019s \u2018Japanification\u2019 will intensify.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Housing sales, prices, investment and construction are all down in 2023 Dikang,\u00a0chinaworker.info China\u2019s property crisis shows no signs of bottoming out. In 2021, 18 trillion yuan (US$2.46 trillion) worth of property was sold in China, according to economist Hao Hong. But in 2023, to achieve total sales of ten trillion yuan\u00a0(US$1.36 trillion)\u00a0would be \u201clucky\u201d he […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":41831,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[207,174,184,38050],"class_list":{"0":"post-41835","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"tag-ccp","8":"tag-china-2","9":"tag-debt-crisis","10":"tag-housing-crisis-2"},"yoast_head":"\n\u201cEven 1.4 billion people probably can\u2019t fill China\u2019s empty houses\u201d - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/10\/24\/41835\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u201cEven 1.4 billion people probably can\u2019t fill China\u2019s empty houses\u201d - China Worker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Housing sales, prices, investment and construction are all down in 2023 Dikang,\u00a0chinaworker.info China\u2019s property crisis shows no signs of bottoming out. 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