{"id":42051,"date":"2023-11-22T19:22:52","date_gmt":"2023-11-22T11:22:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=42051"},"modified":"2023-11-29T20:47:37","modified_gmt":"2023-11-29T12:47:37","slug":"xi-biden-talks-no-thaw-in-cold-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/11\/22\/42051\/","title":{"rendered":"Xi-Biden talks: No thaw in Cold War"},"content":{"rendered":"

Both U.S. and China make fake show of \u201cprogress\u201d at San Francisco\u2008summit<\/strong><\/p>\n

Editorial from Socialist \u300a\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u300bmagazine, journal of ISA in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan<\/p>\n

The dictator-in-chief met the warmonger-in-chief on November 15, for long-delayed talks. The last time Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met was in Indonesia a year ago, when they pledged to put a \u201cfloor\u201d under their worsening relationship. Then a Chinese spy balloon blew a hole in that floor. The U.S. side cried foul and broke off a series of planned diplomatic exchanges.<\/p>\n

The San Francisco talks between the two presidents, on the sidelines of a three-day APEC\u2008summit, produced very little of substance but nevertheless revealed a great deal about the real state of relations between the world\u2019s two superpowers. Within minutes of bidding Xi farewell, Biden told a press conference the Chinese president is \u201cstill a dictator\u201d, but claimed \u201cprogress\u201d had been achieved in the talks. For both sides the watchword was \u201cstabilization\u201d. The message they want to sell to the world is that while relations between the two countries, who together account for 40 percent of the world economy, have hit rock bottom, they won\u2019t get any worse. For now.<\/p>\n

Accordingly, the Chinese government did not explode over Biden\u2019s use of the D-word, as they did when he called Xi a dictator earlier this year. It was simply redacted from most Chinese news reports. One commentator on social media quipped that if Biden had called Xi an emperor, \u201cXi would have loved it!\u201d<\/p>\n

It was the Chinese side that were clearly the most upbeat about the Biden-Xi encounter. It was also Beijing that made the biggest concessions to ensure the meeting happened. A series of pre-meetings were required with Chinese officials traveling to the U.S. to iron out details, and a definite decision over Xi\u2019s attendance was not made until maybe three weeks beforehand.<\/p>\n

Will he, won\u2019t he?<\/strong><\/p>\n

A potential wrench in the works was the ban on Hong Kong\u2019s leader John Lee (appointed by Xi) from attending the APEC\u2008summit. Hong Kong is a separate member of the 21-economy APEC bloc. Under U.S. sanctions for his support for Beijing\u2019s imposition of the national security law in 2020, Lee is not allowed on U.S. territory. The U.S. refused to back down on the issue. For a long time it seemed possible Xi would use this as a pretext to stay away, as in September, when Xi instead sent his premier Li Qiang to the G20 summit in India, a move interpreted as a de facto boycott. But in the two months that have lapsed, political realities have evidently shifted and Xi\u2019s need to show a cooperative demeanor outweighs the need to further dial up nationalism.<\/p>\n

The crux issue was that nothing should occur to cause Xi to \u201close face\u201d in America. Such an absurd degree of micromanagement shows how unstable and under pressure Xi\u2019s position has become, as China\u2019s economy tanks. One statistic reported in the Financial Times (November 19), showing the reversal of Chinese capitalism\u2019s rise (its \u2018Japan moment\u2019 as we have explained),\u2008is key to understanding what is happening in\u2008China today: the country\u2019s share of global GDP has fallen from 18.4 percent to 17 percent in the past two years \u2013 something that last happened in the Mao era.<\/p>\n

The San Francisco talks were \u201chistoric\u201d claimed the People\u2019s Daily, even claiming this represented \u201ca new starting point\u201d for U.S.-China relations. That this statement is a million miles from reality is obvious. The summit will not lead to a \u201creset\u201d in U.S.-China relations let alone a thaw in the imperialist Cold War. The U.S.-led chip war, anti-China trade sanctions with Europe now also getting in on the act, U.S.-led military alliances to pin back China\u2019s military growth, and also Xi\u2019s countermeasures that link China more tightly with Russia, Iran and other anti-U.S. regimes, these are still by far the dominant trend in world developments. The slaughter of the Palestinians in Gaza makes the Cold War standoff potentially even more volatile.<\/p>\n

Excessive hype<\/strong><\/p>\n

The excessive hype in China\u2019s media coverage shows which side wanted the California meeting most. For days before Xi\u2019s trip, a virtual gag order was placed on anti-U.S. rhetoric in state media. Xi\u2019s statement that \u201cplanet Earth is big enough for both China and the U.S.\u201d became a hashtag on social media. While trying to project a more friendly Xi for overseas consumption, offering a welcome mat for foreign capitalists, the main focus of the CCP\u2019s propaganda was to shore up Xi\u2019s support on the home front.<\/p>\n

Significantly, Xi was given no less than three standing ovations when he addressed a dinner for U.S. CEOs in San Francisco. This gathering, attended by the usual billionaire \u2018Xicophants\u2019 like Elon Musk and Tim Cook, again demonstrated that U.S. capitalists love dictators and that China\u2019s Communist Party (CCP) loves capitalists. No walkabouts to meet \u201cthe people\u201d for Xi Jinping. But the feelgood vibes on display at this dinner cannot restore the once pivotal relationship between U.S. and Chinese capitalism which powered three decades of unprecedented capitalist globalization until this ended in the past decade.<\/p>\n

Economic decoupling driven by the imperialist Cold War is now an unmistakable and accelerating trend. This year, barely half the manufactured goods imported into the U.S. from low-cost Asian nations come from China, whereas four years ago the figure was two-thirds, according to Kearney\u2019s annual Reshoring Index. \u201cIn finance, the separation is more pronounced\u201d, says the same report. The value of U.S. dollar foreign direct investment in China fell to $8bn last year, back to 2004 levels. In the opposite direction it\u2019s similar: Qatar and Norway now invest more in the U.S. than China.<\/p>\n

Intensified power struggle<\/strong><\/p>\n

With his regime mired in economic stagnation alongside a resurgent power struggle in the CCP-state and its military arm, the PLA, Xi needed a diplomatic \u201csuccess\u201d to showcase his \u201cskills\u201d on the foreign stage and as a signal \u2013 however tenuous \u2013 that economic conflicts with the U.S. can be managed and contained. Chinese media reeled out banalities such as Biden reiterating that the U.S. \u201cdoes not support Taiwan independence\u201d as if this was a breakthrough from the talks.<\/p>\n

The CCP\u2019s Third Plenum meeting which according to tradition is one of the most important for announcing new economic policies, and should be held before the end of the year, was put on hold until after the Biden-Xi summit. Evidently, the plan is to create momentum from his U.S. visit for Xi to take into the plenum. Such official manoeuvring lends weight to speculation that the internal CCP power struggle has become much sharper in 2023, despite Xi\u2019s success at last year\u2019s 20th CCP Congress.<\/p>\n

It seems no amount of purges is enough. Xi has purged hundreds of very senior figures (\u201ctigers\u201d), and millions of low-level officials from the CCP-state in recent years, in order to consolidate his personal power base. But the social and economic crisis is creating new power struggles, political divisions and intrigues. At bottom, these pressures within the regime and capitalist class reflect alarm and deep pessimism over China\u2019s economy and the fear of social explosions.<\/p>\n

Missing ministers<\/strong><\/p>\n

The intensity of the latest outbreak of CCP infighting is shown by the dismissal and disappearance of two of China\u2019s five state councillors within a few months, both close proteges handpicked by Xi. They are Qin Gang, the former foreign minister, who has not been seen since June, and ex-defence minister Li Shangfu, who disappeared down the same CCP rabbit hole in August. Both men are under investigation, in Qin\u2019s case for alleged \u201cnational security violations\u201d and in Li\u2019s case, probably for corruption (not yet officially confirmed). Such charges are standard in CCP purges, but usually hide political violations such as conspiring, challenging or compromising the authority of the top leadership.<\/p>\n

In Qin\u2019s case, if we overlook the CCP\u2019s \u201cmorality police\u201d and charges of having an extra-marital affair when he was ambassador to the U.S., the most likely explanation for his downfall seems to be his mishandling of diplomatic exchanges with the U.S. in the aftermath of the balloon saga. After several fits and starts, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken went to Beijing in June on a mission to \u201cstabilize\u201d relations and lay the ground for a new Biden-Xi summit.<\/p>\n

But the Americans were incensed by a perceived sleight when Blinken met Xi Jinping in Beijing and was seated far away from him, at an unusual horseshoe shaped table, as if the seating plan had been inspired by a famous scene in Charlie Chaplin\u2019s movie, The Great Dictator. It was Qin, the foreign minister, who organised the seating plan and the Americans were clearly not impressed.<\/p>\n

Days after this, Biden called Xi a \u201cdictator\u201d at a campaign fundraiser. In the same speech he said, \u201cThe reason why Xi Jinping got very upset in terms of when I shot that balloon down with two box cars full of spy equipment in it, he didn\u2019t know it was there\u201d. This statement \u2013 likely true \u2013 will have stung the Chinese president more than being outed as a dictator. Whether or not Biden\u2019s speech was a deliberate rebuke for the lack of courtesy shown to Blinken, this is how it was received in China. Four days after this, Qin Gang joined the ranks of China\u2019s disappeared.<\/p>\n

This is probably because a layer of CCP officials feared Qin\u2019s approach was too aggressive, which risked an even bigger backlash from the U.S. We see that in such a high pressure environment a relatively small diplomatic mistake can lead to the removal of an official in public, which even the \u2018emperor\u2019 Xi cannot smooth over. This underlines how volatile the situation has become at the top of the CCP-state.<\/p>\n

The rival faction against Xi, led by the late Li Keqiang, was basically broken after the 20th Congress last October. The old pattern of power struggles led by different factions is over. The opposition to Xi is scattered in different parts of the state. But paradoxically this makes the current power struggles, which are no longer factionally organised, less predictable and harder to contain from the public. A further example is the publication in the media of new Premier Li Qiang\u2019s considerable wealth. Under China\u2019s total media control it is very likely this too is an expression of a power struggle within the state.<\/p>\n

Pressure on Biden<\/strong><\/p>\n

As the year draws to a close, the U.S. side has also come under pressure to secure a meeting with Xi, to tamp down fears among some important U.S. allies, and also on Wall Street, over whether the U.S.-China conflict is barrelling out of control into possible military confrontation. While the U.S. economy, despite obvious frailty, might not be in a desperate Japan-like rut like Chinese capitalism, Biden faces mounting challenges ranging from Israel\u2019s strangulation war against Gaza and stalemate in Ukraine, to a resurgent Donald Trump (leading\u2008Biden by 2 to 4 percentage points in opinion polls).<\/p>\n

As in their meeting in Indonesia, the U.S. side talks about establishing \u201cguard rails\u201d to limit the confrontation, \u201cso it doesn\u2019t veer into conflict or accidental conflict\u201d as Biden told Xi in San Francisco. In reality, the struggle between the two imperialist giants is escalating and such phrases are just sedatives to make onlookers believe these governments are \u2013 contrary to all evidence \u2013 \u201cresponsible\u201d and in full \u201ccontrol\u201d.<\/p>\n

The two presidents did agree some modest but rather vague deals to support the \u201cprogress\u201d narrative. Military-to-military contacts are to restart, after they were halted by\u2008China in protest against Nancy Pelosi\u2019s 2022 visit to Taiwan. Even here, Beijing insisted on writing \u201con the basis of equality and respect\u201d into the deal, signalling even this is on shaky ground. It was also agreed to set up a \u201cworking group\u201d to combat the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. from\u2008China and another to discuss the risks with AI.<\/p>\n

Beyond the misleading optics of the Biden-Xi summit, the real world is in a more dangerous place than even a year ago. The Cold War between U.S.-led and China-led blocs shows no meaningful signs of de-escalation. The arms race is quickening in Asia and a flood of protectionist policies is coming out of Washington, Beijing and Brussels. In\u2008October, Biden strengthened U.S. tech sanctions against China. Both sides present a facade of \u201ctalking\u201d while beefing up their Cold War strategies.<\/p>\n

Not enough concrete measures to reduce the confrontation was the verdict of veteran China reporter Katsuji Nakazawa (Nikkei Asia, November 17). \u201cIt was barely enough for Xi to save face,\u201d he added. \u201cThe question now is how long the U.S.-China detente will last. Half a month? One month? Maybe three?\u201d<\/p>\n

New book from Vincent Kolo of chinaworker.info \u2022 Chinese Imperialism and the New Cold War<\/strong><\/p>\n

Chinese Imperialism and the New Cold War\u00a0 (208 pages, published July 2023) is an overview and history of the US-China conflict. Buy it on our online store:<\/span>
\nhttps:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/%E7%B6%B2%E5%BA%97\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Both U.S. and China make fake show of \u201cprogress\u201d at San Francisco\u2008summit Editorial from Socialist \u300a\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u300bmagazine, journal of ISA in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan The dictator-in-chief met the warmonger-in-chief on November 15, for long-delayed talks. The last time Xi Jinping and Joe Biden met was in Indonesia a year ago, when they pledged to […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":42056,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,148,124],"tags":[174,12296,2626,915],"class_list":{"0":"post-42051","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-international","9":"category-news","10":"tag-china-2","11":"tag-new-cold-war","12":"tag-us","13":"tag-xi-jinping"},"yoast_head":"\nXi-Biden talks: No thaw in Cold War - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2023\/11\/22\/42051\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Xi-Biden talks: No thaw in Cold War - China Worker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Both U.S. and China make fake show of \u201cprogress\u201d at San Francisco\u2008summit Editorial from Socialist \u300a\u793e\u6703\u4e3b\u7fa9\u8005\u300bmagazine, journal of ISA in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan The dictator-in-chief met the warmonger-in-chief on November 15, for long-delayed talks. 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