{"id":46475,"date":"2024-12-31T08:00:18","date_gmt":"2024-12-31T00:00:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=46475"},"modified":"2025-01-03T04:46:54","modified_gmt":"2025-01-02T20:46:54","slug":"chinas-stimulus-dilemma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2024\/12\/31\/46475\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s stimulus dilemma"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The CCP’s much-hyped stimulus policies of late 2024 are a mere shadow of the mega-package launched in 2008<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dikang, chinaworker.info<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In late September, China\u2019s central bank cut benchmark interest rates and signalled a major new series of economic stimulus polices. The initial stimulus frenzy gave way to deep disappointment as few solid details of new fiscal spending emerged. Some theories say the CCP is saving its stimulus ammunition for the new trade war with Donald Trump that is likely to break out in 2025. But while more stimulus measures are possible, even likely, Beijing\u2019s financial firepower has been shown to be more limited than many observers realise…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BEIJING BAZOOKA?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In September, Chinese government agencies announced major economic stimulus measures. But this was a far cry from the mega stimulus package launched in 2008, and more a case of \u201cloud thunder, but only tiny drops of rain\u201d. Initially, China\u2019s stock markets surged on the expectation that Xi Jinping was reaching for his \u201cbazooka\u201d to boost the economy with new funds. With the economy mired in an unprecedented slump, including the biggest property sector collapse in history, the capitalists are desperate for a financial package of similar proportions to 16 years ago. But behind the eye-catching headlines, the scale of the new measures is modest, and most is directed into bailing out debt-stricken local governments. As reality sunk in, the euphoric mood of Chinese and global capitalists has given way to renewed pessimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What does this tell us? Marxists have explained that the CCP dictatorship\u2019s scope for major economic stimulus is much more constrained today than in 2008. China\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 307.7% in June 2024 from 299% at the end of 2023 (it was 139% in 2008, less than half today\u2019s level). The debt grows remorselessly even as the economy has stopped growing. Economist Gao Shanwen says that China\u2019s GDP growth over the past three years is 10% lower than reported. This is an expression of a new reality: China\u2019s debt-driven state capitalist economic model has reached its limits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

STIMULUS\u2008OR\u2008BAILOUT?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In November, the NPC\u2008Standing Committee finally provided hard numbers about how much the CCP plans to inject into the economy. But its long-awaited announcement was an anti-climax. In total, 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) will be available to heavily-indebted local governments in the form of special bonds and debt swaps over the next five years. Rather than stimulus to spur economic growth, this is a debt bailout. The thinking is that local governments, many on the verge of insolvency, will roll over existing debt with new debt at more favourable interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economist Victor Shih described this as \u201ca ten trillion yuan accounting exercise\u201d. The amount might look impressive at first sight, but does not contain any new money \u2013 the 10 trillion yuan was already planned and is just \u201crepackaged\u201d to support Beijing\u2019s new stimulus narrative. It also falls far short of what most economists believe is needed. Spread over five years (until 2028), the 10 trillion yuan plan will save local governments 600bn yuan in interest payments \u2013 120bn yuan per year. That amounts to less than 0.1% of China\u2019s expected GDP over the same period. Such a small amount will not halt the wave of wage cuts, service suspensions and privatizations \u2013 \u201csmashing iron pots to sell the steel\u201d \u2013 that local governments across the country are carrying out. Xi\u2019s regime believes the economy is only being held back by a lack of \u201cconfidence\u201d and that the answer is more optimistic official rhetoric. An idealist, rather than a materialist analysis, in other words.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT\u2008ABOUT\u2008THE\u2008STATE-OWNED BANKING\u2008SYSTEM?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A report from Rhodium Group (1 September 2024) argues that the deep problems in China\u2019s banking system are now constraining economic growth. This is a consequence of the huge build-up of debt within the economy, in large part due to previous bouts of financial stimulus. \u201cChina saw the largest single-country credit expansion in over a century, adding US$24 trillion in new assets over the eight years from 2008 to 2016, around one-third of global GDP\u201d, the report states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Much of this debt has soured, and needs to be rolled over (replacing old debt with new debt). \u201cA financial system this large and impaired can no longer generate the same pace of credit and investment growth as it did in the past\u201d, says the report. As the economy sinks into Japanese-style stagnation, the CCP wants the banks to speed up lending to spur growth. But the need to inject vast sums to rollover the existing debts of state-owned enterprises and local governments has gummed up the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

STOCK\u2008MARKET\u2008\u201cWELFARISM\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As part of Beijing\u2019s stimulus plan, the People\u2019s Bank of China unveiled new and \u201cunconventional\u201d policy tools worth 800bn yuan to boost the stock market. This policy is \u201cwelfare for the stock market\u201d, from a regime that opposes calls for a stronger social safety net for working class people because this would \u201cencourage laziness\u201d. Financial institutions such as brokerages can now access 500bn yuan worth of \u201cdebt swaps\u201d to play the stock market. Another 300bn yuan will subsidize stock buy-backs, a trick companies use to inflate their own share values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The PBoC announcement triggered a manic stock market rally supported by an intensive media campaign. In five days of trading the CSI300 index was up 25%, a record. Huge numbers of under 30-year-olds were drawn into the stock market, some gambling scholarship funds and savings. Disconnected from the real economy, which is in deep crisis, the stock market bubble cannot be sustained. The CSI300 has sunk again, by 12% since 8 October. China\u2019s stock market is still down 20% from its level in 2021 despite Beijing\u2019s \u201csteroids\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PROPERTY\u2008CRASH<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real estate crisis enters its fourth year with no sign of improving. House prices have fallen by 30% since 2021. Total housing sales are half that year\u2019s level (9.5 trillion vs. 18 trillion yuan). The gigantic crash, caused by capitalism\u2019s in-built speculation tendencies, plunged the whole economy into a long-term slump. To counter this, the CCP\u2019s stimulus measures have been completely ineffective. The housing crisis has so far wiped out an estimated 131 trillion yuan in wealth from households \u2013 more than China\u2019s GDP. It is this drastic fall in wealth and income \u2013 not some vague \u201cconfidence\u201d problem \u2013 that hobbles consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

REMEMBER\u20082008?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To stave off the impact of the global financial crisis, the CCP launched a gigantic stimulus package in November 2008, worth 4 trillion yuan (US$596 billion). This was 13% of China\u2019s GDP at the time. By comparison, today\u2019s 10 trillion yuan package is worth about 2.5% of GDP. In fact, the 2008 package was much bigger, because the CCP lost control over the situation. Local governments set up thousands of so-called LGFVs \u2013 off balance sheet entities \u2013 and trillions of yuan in additional loans were pumped into property and infrastructure projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics estimates the real total was as much as 20 trillion yuan, five times the official sum. China overtook Japan as the world\u2019s 2nd economy in 2010 and achieved 10.6% GDP growth that year. However, this led to an uncontrollable debt explosion, from around 51 trillion yuan in 2007 to 387 trillion today. The lack of a similar huge stimulus package today underlines how far Beijing\u2019s financial wiggle room has narrowed, for fear of triggering a financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CAPITALISM\u2008= JAPANIFICATION<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Marxists predicted that the internal contradictions of China\u2019s state capitalist model, lurking beneath its growth \u201cmiracle\u201d, would lead to Japanification of the economy i.e. a prolonged phase of stagnation caused by huge debt levels. Some economists still debate if this has happened, or is about to happen, or can be avoided if Beijing adopts the \u201cright\u201d policies. The same economists have consistently underestimated the depth of China\u2019s crisis. They falsely believed the pandemic was the primary cause of China\u2019s economic slowdown and expected the economy to bounce back strongly in 2023. As we said at the time, that was a fantasy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important differences between China\u2019s state-dominated capitalism and capitalism in the older capitalist states mean that China is less likely to experience a 2008 US-style banking crash (although this can\u2019t be ruled out). A \u201cslow motion crisis\u201d is a more likely perspective. The CCP-controlled banks are ordered to indefinitely \u201cextend and pretend\u201d, keeping zombie companies and local government entities from going under by extending new loans, despite their inability to pay off the debt. This is somewhat similar to what happened in Japan after its property bubble burst in the early 1990s. Japan also avoided a financial crash like Wall Street\u2019s 16 years ago. By the mid-1990s, however, zombie companies (kept alive by bailouts) accounted for 25% of Japan\u2019s stock market. In China this year, 30% of companies are zombies. Capitalism, both \u201cWestern\u201d and \u201cAsian\u201d models, cannot avoid deep crises and turmoil.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The CCP’s much-hyped stimulus policies of late 2024 are a mere shadow of the mega-package launched in 2008 Dikang, chinaworker.info In late September, China\u2019s central bank cut benchmark interest rates and signalled a major new series of economic stimulus polices. The initial stimulus frenzy gave way to deep disappointment as few solid details of new […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":46470,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[132,124],"tags":[207,174],"class_list":{"0":"post-46475","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-china","8":"category-news","9":"tag-ccp","10":"tag-china-2"},"yoast_head":"\nChina's stimulus dilemma - China Worker<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2024\/12\/31\/46475\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"China's stimulus dilemma - China Worker\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The CCP’s much-hyped stimulus policies of late 2024 are a mere shadow of the mega-package launched in 2008 Dikang, chinaworker.info In late September, China\u2019s central bank cut benchmark interest rates and signalled a major new series of economic stimulus polices. 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