{"id":7296,"date":"2014-06-03T22:23:10","date_gmt":"2014-06-03T14:23:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=7296"},"modified":"2014-06-03T23:42:24","modified_gmt":"2014-06-03T15:42:24","slug":"25-years-since-the-june-4-massacre-in-beijing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/en\/2014\/06\/03\/7296\/","title":{"rendered":"25 years since the June 4 Tiananmen massacre"},"content":{"rendered":"

Can the Chinese dictatorship survive another quarter of a century?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info<\/p>\n

June 4th marks the 25th anniversary of the bloody massacre in Beijing that ended\u00a0the mass student-led democracy movement which\u00a0came close to toppling the Chinese dictatorship. This year on the night of June 4, hundreds of thousands will fill Hong Kong\u2019s Victoria Park for the city\u2019s annual commemoration of these events. Less than one hour\u2019s train ride away, however, in mainland China, no protests will be tolerated and all mention of the 1989 movement has been erased from the media and internet. As Chen Mo explained in our book Seven Weeks That Shook the World<\/em> (chinaworker.info 2009) \u201cIt is almost as if \u201889\u2019, \u2018June 4th\u2019 and the \u2018Tiananmen Incident\u2019 never happened, and the subsequent generations have unfortunately been given amnesia-at-birth.\u201d This book, which includes Stephen Jolly\u2019s excellent \u2018Eyewitness in China\u2019, written after participating in these events, can be ordered from chinaworker.info.<\/p>\n

\"June<\/a>
June 4 in Hong Kong, around 200,000 took part in 2013.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Latest crackdown\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xi Jinping, the current \u2018strong man\u2019 heading China\u2019s misnamed \u2018communist\u2019 party (CPP), has made clear there will be no political relaxation or \u2018democratic reform\u2019 on his watch, but rather a fortification of one-party rule. At the same time, pro-capitalist policies (the early effects of which were an important trigger for the 1989 protests) will continue and accelerate to give the market a \u2018decisive role\u2019.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In recent weeks there has been a further crackdown on prominent dissidents in China as the regime pre-emptively exorcises the ghosts of the 1989 movement. \u201cThe breadth and scope of the crackdown is worrying and definitely an increase from previous years,\u201d noted an Amnesty International spokesman in Hong Kong. The lawyer Pu Zhiqiang, who has represented other dissidents including artist Ai Weiwei, was arrested after a meeting in Beijing to discuss the 1989 movement. Veteran journalist Gao Yu was paraded in prison uniform on state broadcaster CCTV, accused of revealing state secrets, a very serious charge. This latest bout of repression is again aimed at both right and left, with pro-Maoist websites among those closed in recent weeks.<\/p>\n

In the quarter century since the June 4th massacre, China\u2019s economic growth achieved \u2018miracle\u2019 status, and despite its current slowdown is widely tipped to overtake the US as the world\u2019s biggest economy before the end of the decade. The CCP\u2019s model of \u2018state capitalist\u2019 development has created more dollar billionaires than anywhere outside the US, most of whom hold strong connections to the dictatorship and even sit in its auxiliary organs. The apparent successes of the CCP regime, after wading through the blood of anti-government protesters in 1989, has produced admirers among the world\u2019s capitalists (even if many governments increasingly view China as a military and economic threat). This has also\u00a0spawned the theory of \u201cresilient authoritarianism\u201d \u2013 a regime that has adapted, co-opted, and imitated, in order to stay in power.<\/p>\n

\"Hundreds<\/a>
Hundreds or even thousands perished in the military storming of central Beijing.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In the months and years immediately after the Beijing massacre, many Chinese dissidents and democracy activists believed the regime was doomed to imminent collapse, like the USSR and other Stalinist one-party states. When this did not transpire the advocates of \u2018bourgeois democracy\u2019 in China began to adapt politically to the CCP, seeing \u2018compromise\u2019 and \u2018gradual change\u2019 as the only realistic strategy and regarding revolution as dangerous, a threat to capitalist interests and \u2018stability\u2019. This also describes the flawed approach of Hong Kong\u2019s pro-democracy leaders. In so doing, these layers have moved further and further away from the actual tradition of struggle established by the 1989 movement, which as we socialists explain, posed a revolutionary threat to the dictatorship, albeit without the crucial ingredient of a clear programme and leadership.<\/p>\n

\u00a0\u2018Race to the bottom\u2019\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the intervening years the capitalists internationally have also rushed to do business with the Chinese dictatorship (despite brief and token sanctions imposed after the massacre) as it opened up to mass-scale sweatshop production on a scale never before seen in history. The CCP cashed in on the accelerated globalisation wave of the 1990s and 2000s, placing itself at the centre of the worldwide \u2018race to the bottom\u2019 in terms of wages, pensions, social insurance and environmental standards. This was accompanied by measures to separate and break-up the old planning model, while strategic companies remained under state control. World capitalism has rewarded these policies with over US$1 trillion in foreign direct investment over the past quarter century.<\/p>\n

Rather than weaken the repressive hold of the dictatorship, however, the opposite process has emerged from these capitalist policies. As the Wall Street Journal points out, \u201cSpending on domestic security \u2013 from police salaries to surveillance equipment \u2013 rose nearly 90% to 769.1 billion yuan (US$123.1 billion) in the six years to 2013, outstripping the amount spent on national defence.\u201d The Chinese state\u2019s internal security bill is now of a similar size to Vietnam\u2019s GDP. The country has nearly 30 million security cameras and 2 million internet police.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe repressive apparatus in China is much more developed than it was in Egypt or Tunisia,\u201d says Perry Link, the China expert who co-edited The Tiananmen Papers<\/em>. \u201cIt\u2019s sophisticated, layered and huge, so it\u2019s hard for something like a \u2018Jasmine Revolution\u2019 to get going.\u201d<\/p>\n

There is no doubt that the state\u2019s armoury of repression, its censorship of social media and its techniques for demobilising opposition are among the most sophisticated in the world, but ultimately even this will not save the regime. A growing corps of commentators see serious political turbulence ahead as China\u2019s economy heads into a dramatic slowdown, alongside multi-layered risks of a property crash and shadow banking meltdown. A far cry from the economic triumphalism of former leaders, Xi Jinping recently announced that slower GDP growth was the \u201cnew normal\u201d \u2013 raising concerns that even the official 7.5 percent growth target may be missed. A spokesman for the government\u2019s top economic think tank, the Development Research Centre (DRC), recently warned GDP growth might slow to around 5 per cent in the next two to three years.<\/p>\n

\u201cThat leaves only repression and nationalism in the party\u2019s post-Tiananmen toolkit,\u201d noted columnist Minxin Pei (South China Morning Post, 29 May). \u201cAnd, indeed, both of them continue to play a central role in President Xi Jinping\u2019s strategy for ensuring the party\u2019s survival.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pei, like a growing number of commentators, believes the CCP regime is unlikely to survive another 25 years. The increase in state repression and surveillance, while mass protests are also on the rise, is a recipe for explosive social movements in the coming years. At the same time, the sharpening of international tensions and deepening military antagonisms in East Asia can produce new threats to the CCP\u2019s grip on power. It is not sufficient, however, to wish for or predict the demise of the CCP dictatorship; we must build a mass socialist alternative that can influence and solidify coming mass struggles for democracy and against capitalism. This is what the CWI in China, also organised in Hong Kong and Taiwan, is attempting to do today. A crucial part of this task is to draw out the lessons of the mass movement of 1989 as one of the most important struggles in China\u2019s history.<\/p>\n

For more analysis and background on the June 4th massacre and the Tiananmen movement see our earlier articles:<\/p>\n

Tiananmen 1989: 25 years since the mass democracy movement<\/a><\/p>\n

China: Lessons of 1989 mass democracy movement<\/a><\/p>\n

Tiananmen 1989 and the working class<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can the Chinese dictatorship survive another quarter of a century?\u00a0 Vincent Kolo, chinaworker.info June 4th marks the 25th anniversary of the bloody massacre in Beijing that ended\u00a0the mass student-led democracy movement which\u00a0came close to toppling the Chinese dictatorship. 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