{"id":31501,"date":"2022-01-09T02:07:58","date_gmt":"2022-01-08T18:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=31501"},"modified":"2022-01-09T02:08:01","modified_gmt":"2022-01-08T18:08:01","slug":"%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e5%a4%8d%e8%8b%8f%e4%bd%95%e5%8e%bb%e4%bd%95%e4%bb%8e%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/zh-hans\/2022\/01\/09\/31501\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4f55\u53bb\u4f55\u4ece\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u901a\u80c0\u5e7d\u7075\u5a01\u80c1\u5f15\u7206\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u5371\u673a<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Eric Byl\u3000\u56fd\u9645\u6267\u884c\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u6ce8\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u9996\u6b21\u520a\u767b\u4e8e2021\u5e748\u6708\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u5173\u4e8e\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u201c\u540e\u75ab\u60c5\u201d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8d28\u7591\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u6f02\u4eae\uff0c\u4f46\u80cc\u540e\u5b58\u5728\u8bf8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8b66\u53f7\u3002\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u521b\u4e0b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u5267\u73b0\u6709\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u4e0d\u65ad\u5236\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u7d27\u5f20\u5c40\u52bf\u3002\u4e0d\u65ad\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u5f15\u53d1\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u7206\u70b8\u3002\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u5341\u5206\u7f13\u6162\u3001\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\u3001\u4f4e\u6548\u7684\u75ab\u82d7\u63a8\u5e7f\uff0c\u4e3a\u66f4\u5177\u4f20\u67d3\u6027\u548c\u75ab\u82d7\u6297\u6027\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u4ea7\u751f\u548c\u4f20\u64ad\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6e29\u5e8a\u3002\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7684\u538b\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u5404\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u518d\u6b21\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5df2\u7ecf\u5b58\u5728\u5e76\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u3001\u66f4\u7d27\u8feb\u7684\u6311\u6218\uff1a\u751f\u6001\u5371\u673a\u3001\u65b0\u51b7\u6218\u3001\u503a\u52a1\u79ef\u7d2f\u3001\u751f\u4ea7\u80fd\u529b\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u8db3\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u96be\u602a\u56fd\u9645\u8d27\u5e01\u57fa\u91d1\u7ec4\u7ec7 (IMF) \u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u98ce\u9669\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5176\u4e0b\u8c03\u201c\u5168\u7403\u57fa\u7ebf\u201d\u9884\u6d4b\uff082021\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u589e\u957f\u7387\u4e3a 6%\uff0c2022\u5e74\u4e3a4.9%\uff09\u3002IMF\u547c\u5401\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u4e0d\u8981\u6536\u7d27\u8d27\u5e01\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u505a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u4eec\u5bf9\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4e5f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u589e\u957f\u6570\u5b57\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u4eec\u5fc5\u987b\u7ed3\u5408\u65f6\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u6765\u770b\u5f85\u3002\u589e\u957f\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u57282020\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u90003.2%\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u81ea\u4e8c\u6218\u4ee5\u6765\u6700\u4e25\u91cd\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u3002\u8fd9\u4e2a\u589e\u957f\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u5386\u53f2\u6027\u8f6c\u53d8\u7684\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7684\u8d27\u5e01\uff08\u5370\u949e\uff09\u548c\u8d22\u653f\uff08\u589e\u52a0\u9884\u7b97\u5f00\u652f\uff09\u5e72\u9884\u5360GDP\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e3a16%\uff08\u5982\u679c\u5305\u62ec\u8d37\u6b3e\u3001\u80a1\u6743\u548c\u62c5\u4fdd\uff0c\u5219\u4e3a27%\uff09\u3002\u201c\u65b0\u5174\u201d\u56fd\u5bb6\u548c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u6570\u5b57\u5206\u522b\u4e3aGDP\u76844\u20146.5%\u548c1.5\u20142%\u3002\u6839\u636eIMF\u7684\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u622a\u81f32021\u5e747\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u4e8e\u6297\u51fb\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u8d44\u91d1\u5df2\u4e0d\u5c11\u4e8e16.5\u4e07\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8003\u8651\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\uff0cIMF\u7684\u589e\u957f\u6570\u636e\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\u8d44\u672c\u5bb6\u548c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee3\u8868\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5185\u7206\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u793e\u4f1a\u52a8\u8361\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u53d8\u76f8\u5e94\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728<\/em><em>1929<\/em><em>\u5e74\u5927\u8427\u6761\u671f\u95f4\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7528\u4e86<\/em><em>4<\/em><em>\u5e74\u65f6\u95f4\u624d\u4ece\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u573a\u653f\u7b56\u8f6c\u5411\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u56fd\u5bb6\u5e72\u9884\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5373\u201c\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u65b0\u653f\u201d\u3002\u5728\u90a3<\/em><em>4<\/em><em>\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u5012\u9000\u4e86<\/em><em>25%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u98d9\u5347\u81f3<\/em><em>25%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u6570\u5341\u4e07\u4eba\u65e0\u5bb6\u53ef\u5f52\uff0c\u88ab\u79f0\u4e3a\u201c\u80e1\u4f5b\u6751\u201d\uff08\u4ee5\u65f6\u4efb\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u80e1\u4f5b\u547d\u540d\uff09\u7684\u68da\u6237\u533a\u968f\u5904\u53ef\u89c1\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u5728\u80e1\u4f5b\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u516c\u5171\u503a\u52a1\u4ece<\/em><em>1929<\/em><em>\u5e74\u5360<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u7684<\/em><em>16%<\/em><em>\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e86<\/em><em>1933<\/em><em>\u5e74\u7684<\/em><em>40%<\/em><em>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6807\u51c6\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6570\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u4ec5\u5360<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u7684<\/em><em>4%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u5219\u7ea6\u4e3a<\/em><em>30%<\/em><em>\u3002\u8054\u90a6\u503a\u52a1\u4e0e\u8054\u90a6\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u5448\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f\u3002\u7f57\u65af\u798f\u65b0\u653f\u5f00\u59cb\u540e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53cd\u5f39<\/em><em>10.8%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8427\u6761\u5377\u571f\u91cd\u6765\u4e4b\u524d\u8fde\u7eed<\/em><em>3<\/em><em>\u5e74\u4fdd\u6301\u53ef\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u3002\u65b0\u653f\u8d62\u5f97\u4e86\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u80cc\u540e\u7684\u6839\u672c\u95ee\u9898\u4ecd\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6218\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u5927\u89c4\u6a21\u7834\u574f\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4ea7\u80fd\u8f93\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6218\u4e89\u7ed3\u679c\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u4f3c\u4e4e\u770b\u6765\u53d1\u8fbe\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684GDP\u5c06\u6bd4\u9884\u671f\u66f4\u65e9\u5730\u56de\u5230\u5371\u673a\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u2014\u2014\u53bb\u5e74\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u5b9e\u73b0\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533aGDP\u4ecd\u6bd4\u5371\u673a\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e3%\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u589e\u957f\u73b0\u5df2\u9996\u6b21\u8d85\u8fc7\u4e2d\u56fd\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u6062\u590d\u5230\u5371\u673a\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6cd5\u56fd\u9884\u8ba1\u589e\u957f6%\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u589e\u957f5%\uff0c\u7f57\u9a6c\u5c3c\u4e9a\u589e\u957f7.4%\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u53d7\u4e2d\u95f4\u6750\u6599\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u6b27\u6d32\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u589e\u957f\u7387\u9884\u8ba1\u4e3a3.6%\u3002IMF\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u52302022\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u53d1\u8fbe\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u589e\u957f\u5c06\u80fd\u5f25\u8865\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u76f8\u5173\u7684\u635f\u5931\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u53d8\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u770b\u5230\u7531\u4e8e\u201cDelta\u201d\u53d8\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u4e0b\u8c03\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u9884\u6d4b\u4ece5.8%\u81f32.3%\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u80a1\u5e02\u56e0\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u52a0\u6df1\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u65ad\u5c42\u7ebf<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u201c\u65b0\u5174\u201d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u4f53\u4e2d\uff0c\u6062\u590d\u5230\u75ab\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u957f\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002IMF\u8b66\u544a\u201c\u75ab\u82d7\u65ad\u5c42\u7ebf\u201d\u4f1a\u5c06\u5168\u7403\u7ecf\u6d4e\u590d\u82cf\u4e00\u5206\u4e3a\u4e8c\uff0c\u5e76\u4e14\u4e0e\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1 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Rogoff\uff09\u79f0\u201c\u6709\u70b9\u901a\u80c0\u4e0d\u662f\u574f\u4e8b\u201d\u3002\u4ed6\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u673a\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u94f6\u884c\u5e94\u8be5\u91c7\u53d6\u8d1f\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u51e0\u5e74\u5185\u5141\u8bb84%\u81f36%\u7684\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u73b0\u5728\u4e3b\u5f203%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\uff08\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u76842%\uff09\uff0c\u5e76\u7ecf\u5e38\u5f15\u8ff0\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u4efb\u5e03\u5170\u67e5\u5fb7\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\uff0c\u540e\u8005\u66fe\u57282010\u5e74\u4e3b\u5f20\u5c06\u901a\u80c0\u76ee\u6807\u63d0\u9ad8\u52304%\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u96be\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u822c\u8ba4\u4e3a\u201c\u5065\u5eb7\u201d\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u662f\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u548c\u52b3\u52a8\u529b\u7efc\u5408\u589e\u957f\u7387\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u76f4\u81f31970\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e2d\u3001\u540e\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u53d1\u8fbe\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u56fd\u5bb6\uff0c4%\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u88ab\u8ba4\u4e3a\u662f\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u4e4b\u540e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u901f\u5ea6\u653e\u7f13\uff0c2%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u666e\u904d\u7684\u8ba4\u53ef\u3002\u7f57\u683c\u592b\u66f4\u4e3b\u5f20\u62c9\u5927\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u4e0e\u751f\u4ea7\u529b\u589e\u957f\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u8fd9\u4e0d\u4ec5\u80fd\u51cf\u8f7b\u503a\u52a1\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8fd8\u80fd\u523a\u6fc0\u751f\u4ea7\u3002\u53ef\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u901a\u8d27\u81a8\u80c0\u96be\u4ee5\u63a7\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u768420\u5e74\u91cc\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u592e\u884c\u672a\u80fd\u5b9e\u73b02%\u7684\u76ee\u6807\u901a\u80c0\u7387\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u62c5\u5fc3\u91cd\u8e481970\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u7684\u8986\u8f99\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4ed6\u4eec\u5b8c\u5168\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u90a3\u65f6\u6240\u8c13\u7684\u6ede\u80c0\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u5373\u7ecf\u6d4e\u505c\u6ede\u540c\u65f6\u8fd8\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u4e24\u4f4d\u6570\/\u98de\u901f\u7684\u901a\u80c0\u76f8\u3002\u8d44\u672c\u5bb6\u5fc5\u987b\u53d1\u52a8\u5bf9\u5de5\u4eba\u8fd0\u52a8\u7684\u6b8b\u9177\u8fdb\u653b\uff0c\u540c\u65f6\u5927\u529b\u51cf\u5c11\u8d27\u5e01\u4f9b\u5e94\uff08\u8fd9\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u6b21\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8870\u9000\uff09\u65b9\u53ef\u8ba9\u8d44\u672c\u4e3b\u4e49\u6446\u8131\u56f0\u5883\u30021979\u5e74\u81f31982\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u9996\u76f8\u6492\u5207\u5c14\u5c06\u5b9e\u9645\u5229\u7387\u4ece-3%\u63d0\u9ad8\u81f34%\uff0c1983\u5e74\u5931\u4e1a\u7387\u4ece5%\u98d9\u5347\u81f311%\u3002\u5f53\u65f6\u7f8e\u8054\u50a8\u7684\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u5c14\u514b\uff08Paul Adolph Volcker, 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