{"id":31496,"date":"2022-01-09T02:01:31","date_gmt":"2022-01-08T18:01:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/?p=31496"},"modified":"2022-01-09T02:01:34","modified_gmt":"2022-01-08T18:01:34","slug":"%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%be%a9%e7%94%a6%e4%bd%95%e5%8e%bb%e4%bd%95%e5%be%9e%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/chinaworker.info\/zh-hant\/2022\/01\/09\/31496\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4f55\u53bb\u4f55\u5f9e\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u901a\u8139\u5e7d\u9748\u5a01\u8105\u5f15\u7206\u65b0\u4e00\u6ce2\u5371\u6a5f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Eric Byl\u3000\u570b\u969b\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1\u6703<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u6ce8\uff1a\u672c\u6587\u9996\u6b21\u520a\u767b\u65bc2021\u5e748\u6708\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u95dc\u65bc\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u300d\u7d93\u6fdf\u53cd\u5f48\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u8cea\u7591\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u6f02\u4eae\uff0c\u4f46\u80cc\u5f8c\u5b58\u5728\u8af8\u591a\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u8b66\u865f\u3002\u8ca7\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u5275\u4e0b\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u52a0\u5287\u73fe\u6709\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u65b7\u88fd\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u3002\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u5f15\u767c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7684\u793e\u6703\u7206\u70b8\u3002\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u5341\u5206\u7de9\u6162\u3001\u4e0d\u5747\u8861\u3001\u4f4e\u6548\u7684\u75ab\u82d7\u63a8\u5ee3\uff0c\u70ba\u66f4\u5177\u50b3\u67d3\u6027\u548c\u75ab\u82d7\u6297\u6027\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\u7522\u751f\u548c\u50b3\u64ad\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6eab\u5e8a\u3002\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u53ef\u80fd\u8feb\u4f7f\u5404\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d93\u6fdf\u518d\u6b21\u9677\u5165\u8870\u9000\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u5b58\u5728\u4e26\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u68d8\u624b\u3001\u66f4\u7dca\u8feb\u7684\u6311\u6230\uff1a\u751f\u614b\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u65b0\u51b7\u6230\u3001\u50b5\u52d9\u7a4d\u7d2f\u3001\u751f\u7522\u80fd\u529b\u6295\u8cc7\u4e0d\u8db3\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u96e3\u602a\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54 (IMF) \u8b66\u544a\u7a31\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u98a8\u96aa\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8b93\u5176\u4e0b\u8abf\u300c\u5168\u7403\u57fa\u7dda\u300d\u9810\u6e2c\uff082021\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u589e\u9577\u7387\u70ba 6%\uff0c2022\u5e74\u70ba4.9%\uff09\u3002IMF\u547c\u7c72\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u4e0d\u8981\u6536\u7dca\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u8feb\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5011\u9019\u6a23\u505a\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u8868\u660e\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e5f\u7f3a\u4e4f\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u589e\u9577\u6578\u5b57\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u5f88\u597d\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u5fc5\u9808\u7d50\u5408\u6642\u4ee3\u80cc\u666f\u4f86\u770b\u5f85\u3002\u589e\u9577\u662f\u767c\u751f\u57282020\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u90003.2%\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u90a3\u662f\u81ea\u4e8c\u6230\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8870\u9000\u3002\u9019\u500b\u589e\u9577\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u6b77\u53f2\u6027\u8f49\u8b8a\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\uff0c\u5728\u767c\u9054\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff08\u5370\u9214\uff09\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\uff08\u589e\u52a0\u9810\u7b97\u958b\u652f\uff09\u5e72\u9810\u4f54GDP\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6bd4\u4f8b\u70ba16%\uff08\u5982\u679c\u5305\u62ec\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3001\u80a1\u6b0a\u548c\u64d4\u4fdd\uff0c\u5247\u70ba27%\uff09\u3002\u300c\u65b0\u8208\u300d\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u570b\u5bb6\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u5206\u5225\u70baGDP\u76844\u20146.5%\u548c1.5\u20142%\u3002\u6839\u64daIMF\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u622a\u81f32021\u5e747\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7528\u65bc\u6297\u64ca\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u5df2\u4e0d\u5c11\u65bc16.5\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u8003\u616e\u5230\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0cIMF\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6578\u64da\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u662f\u4ee4\u4eba\u5931\u671b\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\u8cc7\u672c\u5bb6\u548c\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u4ee3\u8868\u5f88\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u5167\u7206\u800c\u7522\u751f\u793e\u6703\u52d5\u8569\uff0c\u5c31\u9700\u8981\u5fb9\u5e95\u6539\u8b8a\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5728<\/em><em>1929<\/em><em>\u5e74\u5927\u856d\u689d\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u7528\u4e86<\/em><em>4<\/em><em>\u5e74\u6642\u9593\u624d\u5f9e\u81ea\u7531\u5e02\u5834\u653f\u7b56\u8f49\u5411\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5e72\u9810\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5373\u300c\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u65b0\u653f\u300d\u3002\u5728\u90a3<\/em><em>4<\/em><em>\u5e74\u9593\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u5012\u9000\u4e86<\/em><em>25%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u98c6\u5347\u81f3<\/em><em>25%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u6578\u5341\u842c\u4eba\u7121\u5bb6\u53ef\u6b78\uff0c\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u80e1\u4f5b\u6751\u300d\uff08\u4ee5\u6642\u4efb\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u80e1\u4f5b\u547d\u540d\uff09\u7684\u68da\u6236\u5340\u96a8\u8655\u53ef\u898b\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u5728\u80e1\u4f5b\u7684\u4efb\u671f\u5167\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u516c\u5171\u50b5\u52d9\u5f9e<\/em><em>1929<\/em><em>\u5e74\u4f54<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u7684<\/em><em>16%<\/em><em>\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e86<\/em><em>1933<\/em><em>\u5e74\u7684<\/em><em>40%<\/em><em>\u3002\u6309\u7167\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u53ef\u80fd\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5f88\u6b63\u5e38\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u50c5\u4f54<\/em><em>GDP<\/em><em>\u7684<\/em><em>4%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e00\u6578\u5b57\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u5247\u7d04\u70ba<\/em><em>30%<\/em><em>\u3002\u806f\u90a6\u50b5\u52d9\u8207\u806f\u90a6\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u503c\u5448\u6307\u6578\u589e\u9577\u3002\u7f85\u65af\u798f\u65b0\u653f\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5e74\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u53cd\u5f48<\/em><em>10.8%<\/em><em>\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u856d\u689d\u6372\u571f\u91cd\u4f86\u4e4b\u524d\u9023\u7e8c<\/em><em>3<\/em><em>\u5e74\u4fdd\u6301\u53ef\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u3002\u65b0\u653f\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e86\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4f46\u6240\u6709\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u6839\u672c\u554f\u984c\u4ecd\u672a\u5f97\u5230\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u76f4\u5230\u7b2c\u4e8c\u6b21\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u6230\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7834\u58de\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u80fd\u8f38\u51fa\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6230\u722d\u7d50\u679c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u4f3c\u4e4e\u770b\u4f86\u767c\u9054\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\u7684GDP\u5c07\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u66f4\u65e9\u5730\u56de\u5230\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u2014\u2014\u53bb\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u5c31\u5be6\u73fe\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e5f\u6703\u5982\u6b64\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u5340GDP\u4ecd\u6bd4\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u4f4e3%\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u589e\u9577\u73fe\u5df2\u9996\u6b21\u8d85\u904e\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u3002\u6b50\u5143\u5340\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5e74\u5e95\u6062\u5fa9\u5230\u5371\u6a5f\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6cd5\u570b\u9810\u8a08\u589e\u95776%\uff0c\u610f\u5927\u5229\u589e\u95775%\uff0c\u7f85\u99ac\u5c3c\u4e9e\u589e\u95777.4%\uff0c\u5fb7\u570b\u53d7\u4e2d\u9593\u6750\u6599\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u6bd4\u5176\u4ed6\u6b50\u6d32\u570b\u5bb6\u66f4\u5927\uff0c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u9810\u8a08\u70ba3.6%\u3002IMF\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u52302022\u5e74\u5e95\uff0c\u767c\u9054\u8cc7\u672c\u4e3b\u7fa9\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u589e\u9577\u5c07\u80fd\u5f4c\u88dc\u6240\u6709\u56e0\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u640d\u5931\u3002\u7576\u7136\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u662f\u65b0\u7684\u65b0\u51a0\u8b8a\u7a2e\u75c5\u6bd2\u5f97\u5230\u63a7\u5236\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u770b\u5230\u7531\u65bc\u300cDelta\u300d\u8b8a\u7a2e\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u4e0b\u8abf\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7b2c\u4e09\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u9810\u6e2c\u5f9e5.8%\u81f32.3%\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u56e0\u800c\u53d7\u5230\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u52a0\u6df1\u5168\u7403\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u7684\u65b7\u5c64\u7dda<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u300c\u65b0\u8208\u300d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u5230\u75ab\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u5728\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u570b\u5bb6\u66f4\u662f\u5982\u6b64\u3002IMF\u8b66\u544a\u300c\u75ab\u82d7\u65b7\u5c64\u7dda\u300d\u6703\u5c07\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u8607\u4e00\u5206\u70ba\u4e8c\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u8207\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u9810\u8a08 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Rogoff\uff09\u7a31\u300c\u6709\u9ede\u901a\u8139\u4e0d\u662f\u58de\u4e8b\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u57282008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u61c9\u8a72\u63a1\u53d6\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u5e7e\u5e74\u5167\u5141\u8a314%\u81f36%\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u3002\u4ed6\u73fe\u5728\u4e3b\u5f353%\u7684\u901a\u8139\u76ee\u6a19\uff08\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u76842%\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u7d93\u5e38\u5f15\u8ff0\u4ed6\u7684\u524d\u4efb\u5e03\u862d\u67e5\u5fb7\uff08Olivier 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Adolph Volcker, 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