On 6 March, after only a week of war, Trump wrote that “there will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” [his emphasis]. Three months later however, it is he who is surrendering. Regardless of whether or not the deal which was reportedly agreed on 14 June holds, US imperialism’s defeat in this conflict – known in Iran as the Ramadan war – has been confirmed.
No Wins for US Imperialism
While the exact details of the deal remain obscured by the fog of war, the contours are clear. The only “win” included for US imperialism – a great achievement, if Trump’s Truth Social posts are anything to go by – is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This “solves” a problem which only exists because of Trump and Netanyahu’s war in the first place! And even this “solution” is a humiliation for US imperialism: the strait will reopen with the kind permission of the Iranian regime, which continues to claim that transit through the chokepoint will take place under its control.
Trump’s claims of a breakthrough on the nuclear question are entirely without foundation. Iran, we are told, has agreed to discuss, at some point in the future, the curtailing of its nuclear programme (which is exactly what it was doing before 28 February). And the regime has reiterated for the umpteenth time its historic position that it is not seeking to build a nuclear weapon.
The other central planks of Trump and Netanyahu’s casus belli for the war – the limitation of Tehran’s missile capabilities and the ending of its support for so-called “proxies” like Hezbollah and the Houthis – appear to have been unceremoniously removed from the table altogether. As has, of course, the absurd claim that there has been regime change in Tehran.
Iran on the other hand, is the relative winner from the reported deal. The regime has survived, humiliated Trump, and seen its control over Hormuz confirmed. The latter in particular, represents a significant strengthening of its power in the region – precisely the opposite of what Trump and Netanyahu wanted to achieve. In addition, it will gain billions of dollars in unfrozen assets and sanctions relief – $12 billion even before the commencement of negotiations on a longer-term deal.
Will Netanyahu Play Ball?
Every aspect of the reported deal is vulnerable to being blown apart by continued volatility and unresolved tensions. In both Washington and Tehran, the deal has vocal critics who favour a return to all-out war. But the most explosive factor in the short term is undoubtedly the contradiction between the war’s chief co-instigators: Trump is desperate to surrender, and Netanyahu to keep the war going.
Indeed Israel, apparently, is not part of the deal, despite the fact that it includes an “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon”, according to Pakistani Primer Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, the deal’s chief mediator.
The first predictable reactions from within Israel’s far-right government came from the ultra-reactionary monsters Ben Gvir (National Security Minister) and Smotrich (Finance Minister), the latter declaring “we will have to continue the campaign to topple the regime ourselves”. While Netanyahu has yet to make any official statement, his defence minister stated on the morning of 15 June, after the deal’s announcement, that the IDF would not withdraw from Lebanon, Syria, or Gaza.
A continuation of bellicose exchanges directly between Israel and Iran in the aftermath of a deal is entirely possible. In early June, Iran cited Israeli attacks on Beirut as a direct motive for missile attacks for the first time and its Houthi allies have also waded in intermittently with attacks on Israeli targets.
However, this would continue to put major pressure on Trump. The Israeli military is a formidable force in its own right, but it is also entirely dependent on US imperialism, not only for supplies but also the intelligence, satellite and radar facilities which make its bombardments of Iran possible. Whether an emboldened Iranian regime will allow for the conflict to be “decoupled” in this way – agreeing, for example, not to close Hormuz again in response to Israeli aggression – is also an open question.
For these and many other reasons, it is very difficult to see this deal leading to a definitive end to hostilities in the region. Socialists do not buy into simplistic narratives about Israel – by far the junior partner in its sacred alliance with Washington – somehow being US imperialism’s “puppet master”. At the same time, Netanyahu’s regime is a major (rogue) factor in the situation. While Trump is desperate for the war to end before the US midterms in November, Netanyahu needs endless conflict in order to stay in power (and out of prison) following his own elections, which must take place no later than October.
A more likely scenario is one of continued, if somewhat more contained, conflict in the long term. Since the US-backed genocidal onslaught by the Israeli regime began after 7 October 2023, no “ceasefire” has really ended the fighting. Israel attacked Lebanon literally thousands of times during the short-lived “ceasefire” signed in 2025 and despite Trump’s sickening “peace plan” for Gaza, it remains under genocidal siege and occupation. Meanwhile, the West Bank is suffering from an ongoing bloody escalation of ethnic cleansing.
Trump’s new definition of a ceasefire being “shooting in a more moderate manner” may prove to be the new norm in the region. Whatever the case, there will be no return to the “normal” balance of forces in the region. The Gulf states have been plunged into existential crisis. And even if the strait of Hormuz is quickly reopened, the impact of the biggest ever energy and supply chain crisis the world has ever seen, is far from finished.
Revolutionary socialists are no cheerleaders for the reactionary Iranian dictatorship, and stand in full solidarity with the workers, women and oppressed people who have dedicated their efforts and lives to its overthrow. We welcome the defeat of US imperialism not because we wish for the Iranian regime’s victory, but because it can open the way for class struggle, against a weakened Trump regime in the US, and against the genocidal Israeli capitalist class. We also fight for an end to this war in order to allow for renewed struggle against the regime in Iran and all capitalist regimes throughout the region.
The only way forward is international working-class organisation and struggle for a socialist alternative to war, all imperialist powers, oppression and economic misery. If you agree, get involved with International Socialist Alternative today.
